Thomas John Watson Sr. was an American businessman, who served as the President, Chairman, and CEO of International Business Machines or IBM as we call it, from 1914 to 1956.
In the early 1940’s, some on the board of directors were lobbying to remove Watson as IBM’s President because inventories were too high. It was after the depression and business was not flourishing and they wanted Tom Watson out.
At that very time, a large government bid, approaching a million dollars, was on the table. The IBM Corporation and especially Thomas J. Watson Sr. needed every deal. Unfortunately, the salesman failed. IBM lost the bid. The next day, the sales rep showed up at Mr. Watson’s office. He sat down and rested an envelope with his resignation on the CEO’s desk.
As he rose to walk out, Tom Watson met him at the door, looked him in the eye and handed the envelope back to him saying, “Why would I accept this when I have just invested one million dollars in your education?”
Now, back then one million dollars was a lot of money, but if you factor in inflation, $1,000,000 in 1940 is equivalent to $18.3 Million today. This could be the story of Dave Roberts. Andrew Friedman may feel that he has so much invested in training him that he’s not taking the envelope… or firing him.
Every human being has strengths and weaknesses. As a manager of people, Andrew Friedman’s job is to maximize subordinates’ strengths and minimize their weaknesses. It’s hard to find a Manager that is better at managing his players and the clubhouse better than Dave Roberts. However, like Tommy Lasorda, he’s not a rocket scientist. He has made some bad moves that turned out good, some good moves that turned out bad and some moves that were just one step away from being genius if the players had only executed.
I have said it before and I will say it again: “The decision to pitch Clayton Kershaw to Rendon and Soto was in fact, an organizational decision.” Friedman and Doc obviously talked about it before the game. I am not going to argue or belabor the point. I don’t fault that decision and I have talked to several baseball people who have no problem with it either. I have listened to MLB commentators say they had no issue with it. The problem was Clayton failed to execute. End of story. Well, leaving Kelly in was a moronic move – so there’s that too.
I do think that Andrew Friedman will have Dave Robert’s assistants more involved in “in-game decisions” in the future. I have a feeling that Mark Prior will have a much stronger voice in pitching changes than Rick Honeycutt. Rick is a nice guy, every pitchers’ buddy… Mark Prior is much more analytical and calculated. I wanted Doc out too, but why not maximize his leadership and have his lieutenants more involved in tactical decisions? Minimize his weaknesses and maximize his strengths. That’s the way you do it.
NYC Trip
So, my oldest son’s 33 birthday was last weekend and I told him I was coming to visit him and spend the weekend. What I didn’t tell him was that his older sister and her husband and his brother, as well as his step-mom, were also coming. Patty has been his mom longer than his real mom who died when he was 9. So he was pretty surprised when we all showed up with two (bonded-bothers) kittens. He has been talking about a cat for a long time but was afraid one might get lonely. He was surprised and very happy. It was a great weekend.
You may or may not know that I write another blog and today’s post is very important. Read it if you are so inclined:
Nice family, Mark!
To continue with the last thread on Lindor, the comments closed before I could post this:
If the Lindor rumor has any legs, I’m all for it. He is a player I’ve thought about for the last 3 years and I think it would be a significant upgrade at SS. Acquiring a gold glove SS is rare, especially one who hits as well as Lindor does. ROY and 4 time allstar.
What AC didn’t mention about Lindor is that he is a better doubles machine than Corey and has had 30+ HR’s the last 3 seasons. These two stats alone would have very high appeal to the FO as we all know that the Dodgers are built to hit HR’s. Lindor has 1433 Total Bases in 5 years. Corey has 910 and has never reached 30 HR’s. Add Lindor’s SB record and he is clearly the superior player.
Career-wise, Lindor has way more RBI’s than Corey both at home and away. AC’s stats are only for last season, which was not great for Lindor but still better than Corey’s overall. He is also a natural base stealer with great speed. The last 2 years he has 20+ SB’s! He usually bats 2nd in the order.
He is faster both in fielding and base running, more power both in HR’s and total bases, more RBI’s, and not injury prone like Corey. Smaller in size makes a difference at SS.
What is it going to take to get him? I couldn’t and won’t answer this. If AF is seriously interested, I’m sure he would get it done and I wouldn’t argue with who he would throw in. The key is AF’s real interest.
I would not mind getting him, but know that his stats in LA will not be like Cleveland. You saw AC’s clutch stats too.
He could hit #1 or #2. I am all for it, but like DJLM, he will not put up his usual numbers in LA.
I don’t think there is any way to know what his #’s will be in L.A., or how much help/impact he will have, in general. It’s like saying Corey will have a tremendous 2020 season. Impossible to know, so I never make any predictions like these on individual players. Who would have thought that Muncy would produce the HR’s and RBI’s that he’s contributed the last 2 seasons. But we need better production out of Muncy. He remains an average hitter, although a real power bat, like Joc. Having 2 starters like this will hamstring a team in the long run. Add Kike and CT3, and we have too many middling hitters. Lindor, at his worst, would not be a middling hitter. Corey was mostly a middling hitter this season but had a good enough uptake in doubles and RBI’s to make him better than middling, but not in the Lindor class of hitter.
Lindor and Seager both had a .335 OB%, but Seager’s career OB% is .362, while Lindor’s is .347.
Seager missed a year and last year was a recovery year as he re-developed muscle memory and regained his abilities. You can actually see that he wore down as the year went on. He had two major surgeries to recover from and just watching him in the minor leagues and through last year, I can predict with a great deal of confidence that he will have a very good 2020… barring injury (and he is not injury-prone).
Instead of rehabbing this offseason, he can focus on his hitting and conditioning with RVS and based upon his past work ethic, I think it will pay off in spades. However, I am not adverse to Lindor, and while I am OK with Seager at SS, I think Corey would move to 3B to make room for him.
However, Progressive Field is smaller than Dodger stadium in the L and R Field areas and the power alleys. Add in the heavy night air that knocks down fly balls and Lindor would not hit as many HR there. I think even Ray Charles could see that. He may hit a lot more doubles, however. The troubling part is that he has not had good numbers with RISP, as pointed out by AC.
Corey Seager was a TOP 8 or 9 SS last season in his “rehab year” and I believe he will be Top 3 next year. To me the report that the Dodgers want to trade for Lindor is bogus. AF would not tip his hand on that, I still look at Alex Castellanos as a brilliant move. Put him in LF – costs nothing but a contract and it could be team-friendly. Trade Joc for a reliever.
Lindor is a better HR hitter, but he is not a better overall hitter. You cannot look at raw numbers of doubles and RBI’s and not take into consideration that Lindor has 1,175 more PA than does Corey. Lindor does not have a better career BA nor a better OBP. He is very slightly better career slugging (.493 to .491), and not as good OPS. As Mark indicated, Seager spent all winter and ST rehabbing and trying to get back into baseball shape/timing, both offensively and defensively. And he still had more doubles and RBIs than Lindor with more than 100 less PA. Does not sound very middling to me when compared to Lindor who you say is a better class of hitter. I will reiterate what Mark said. Seager will spend this winter getting into better overall athletic training and conditioning.
Apparently, you did not read the entire post with respect to Seager vs Lindor stats, because it was not for one year. I included career numbers. This is what I wrote:
Seager Career RISP – .322/.404/.558/.962 – 480 PA
Lindor Career RISP – .265/.339/.423/.763 – 753 PA
Seager Career RISP w/2 outs – .326/.404/.565/.968 – 218 PA
Lindor Career RISP w/2 outs – .213/.304/.295/.598 – 303 PA
Is Lindor’s defense and power enough to trade a player who is a far superior hitter with RISP and with RISP w/2 outs? How do you ignore a SS who has a career OBP greater than .400 with RISP and with RISP w/2 outs, if that is the perceived offensive primary concern?
Finally contrary to what some want, Seager is not going to be platooned.
Seager Career vs RHP – .305/.375/.513/.889
Seager Career vs LHP – .272/.336/.445/781
Lindor Career vs RHP – .281/.339/.493/.832
Lindor Career vs LHP – .302/.364/.494/.857
Both players had twice as many PA facing RHP vs. LHP. Seager metrics show he would be more beneficial since he hits RHP better than does Lindor and they face twice as many RHP.
As an addendum: You wrote: What AC didn’t mention about Lindor is that he is a better doubles machine than Corey. Career-wise, Lindor has way more RBI’s than Corey both at home and away. AC’s stats are only for last season, which was not great for Lindor but still better than Corey’s overall.
Career RBI’s:
Seager – 2,069 PA – 266 RBI’s – 1 every 7.78 PA
Lindor – 3,244 PA – 384 RBI’s – 1 every 8.45 PA
Career Doubles:
Seager – 2,069 PA – 130 doubles – 1 every 15.92 PA
Lindor – 3,244 PA – 178 doubles – 1 every 18.22 PA
2019 RBI’s:
Seager – 541 PA – 87 RBIs – 1 every 6.22 PA
Lindor – 654 PA – 74 RBIs – 1 every 8.84 PA
2019 Doubles:
Seager – 541 PA – 44 doubles– 1 every 12.30 PA
Lindor – 654 PA – 40 doubles – 1 every 16.35 PA
So no, Lindor is not a better RBI or doubles producer than Corey career wise and especially last year. In more than 100 less PA. Seager had more doubles and RBIs than Lindor.
Finally, the overall career slash line comparison:
Seager – .294/.362/.491/.853
Lindor – .288/.347/.493/.840
There is no argument that Lindor does have more HR power. But he is not a better doubles or RBI producer. Lindor is a better base stealer, but that is not big part of the Dodgers game, while it is a big part of Cleveland’s game. I would expect Lindor’s SB’s to reduce if he were to come to LA.
Lindor is a very good SS, and if Seager was to move to third I would be very happy with Lindor as a Dodger SS. You prefer Lindor to Seager. Shockingly we disagree as to how we value Dodger players vs others.
Sorry I flubbed the stats as you did post career #’s. I know you value certain things more than other things. That’s just what people do when they evaluate players. Then, there are the intangibles which cannot be measured. I still say Lindor is the more valuable player and has more skills.
There is still the possibility that if they do get Lindor, Corey will still be retained. I’m not adverse to this. My position is only in an either/or scenario. I’m not trying to minimize Corey’s production. We’ll see what happens.
I understand, and I do not mean to be negative to how you value Lindor over Corey. You are certainly not alone. Admittedly, I am an unabashed Corey Seager fan, and have been since he was drafted. I latch onto kids as they are drafted and remain a fan throughout their career. That is not just for Dodger draftees. I was absolute hawk of an advocate for Alex Bregman during his junior year at LSU. I knew there was no way the Dodgers were going to draft him, but I monitored every one of his MiLB games. I was never that enamored with Francisco Lindor, not meant as a negative. I just never got emotionally attached to him. He is a fantastic SS.
You need to re-read AC’s statistical analyses of Seager and Lindor. In addition, consider that Indians play in a hitter friendly park (check out the stats over the last 5 seasons). Away from Cleveland Lindor has a career slash line of .266 / .320 / .461 / .781. In 2019, after Seager missed more than a year from competitive professional baseball, he had a 3.3 WAR (compared to Lindor’s 4.4), and his wRC+ (weighted runs created) was 113 compared to Lindor’s 114 (stats from Fangraphs). Before his elbow and hip injuries, Seager won the Silver Slugger award two consecutive seasons while leading all MLB shortstops with 13.3 WAR, ranking 5th during that period behind Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Jose Altuve, and Kris Bryant. I don’t believe the Lindor reports — just the same old baseball writers supposition that happens around this time every season. The Indians are looking for outfield help, and hoping to trade the contract of Corey Kluber — the team believes it will once again contend for playoffs in 2020 and trading Lindor would be a step backwards.
You all should listen to what AC and SoCalBum, among others, have to say positively about Seager. I think they know of what they speak. IMO, we do not need Lindor and need to keep Seager and not necessarily move him over to 3rd. The money, again in my own opinion, for whatever worth, would be better spent in bullpen upgrading.
Nice family Mark.
Do not trade Seager. As I said in the last thread, nobody knows what Freidman is going to do.
I agree with AC. Doc does not see what is right in front of him when he manages. He does not adjust as the game goes on. Pitching Kershaw was predetermined. I hope Doc gets some advice from the pitching coach and bench coach. Doc needs help.
Until this post season I was in Doc’s corner 100%, but his handling of bullpen (not Kershaw) in game 5 was a brain cramp I cannot overlook, or forgive. Dodgers have already made it clear that Roberts returns for 2020, and I too hope that his OJT is complete, but he seems like a very slow learner and another post season bullpen blunder appears more likely than not.
Agreed SoCalBum, but what stat is OJT? By the way, Mark, nice photos. Glad you had a good family visit in NewYork. Those times are precious.
OJT = On the Job Training
Apologies DBM; old habits are hard to break. We used OJT for so many years in our companies that I went into cruise control when writing.
Thank you SoCalGrinch and SoCalBum. I should have known that.
I was hoping all the negative Doc talk would slow down but no cigar…
And then just when I thought it’s safe to go back in the water, some of us are trading Seager!!! What the heck??? …
They begin the evening news with “Good Evening,”
then proceed to tell you why it isn’t!!!
As MT reminded us “Seager will spend this winter getting into better overall athletic training and conditioning”.. Easy Peasy…
Soon I’ll be back to Camelback and anxious to how Verdugo and Seager looks!!!
I wish I knew what AF is going to do, but I don’t know and I’m sure a majority here are clueless…
If I agreed with you, we’d both be wrong…i
One correction. Change, majority here are clueless to what AF will do, to 100% of us are clueless as to what AF will do. We all have opinions as to what AF should do, and all of us are brilliant with our knowledge. 🙂
Even AF is not sure exactly what he will do. He has a good idea of team weaknesses and strengths as well as specific needs (RH bat?, ace level started, BP, etc) but how he addresses that will depend on the market and what other teams are willing to do. He will have specific valuations for players but whether specific players are available at that valuation is out of his control.
Will he sign a big free agent (i.e. Rendon or Cole)? He likely has a price and will pay up to that but much not above. Will they be available at that price? Probably not but the Dodgers will likely make an offer. The Dodgers are not cheap (they routinely have one of the largest payrolls in the league). They have plenty of money as evidenced by their payroll and their spending on player development etc. The reality though, is this is a soft salary capped league with the CBT tiers. They will be around the cap. I suspect he has a mandate from owners to field a competitive team every year while staying around the cap. This precludes “drunken sailor spending”.
This will be a very interesting off season as this is the first year AF has actually had money to spend. Past record can only predict the future to a certain extent. AF having money to spend is somewhat uncharted territory.
Too many facets to the puzzle to make definite predictions but that doesn’t mean it isn’t fun to do so anyway.
From past experience we do know that Andrew will try to make the team better, we just don’t know how he will do it.
Fans get emotionally attached to players. The Braintrust can’t – at least not too much.
As I have said before, Dodger players and prospects are a little like the fictitious community of Lake Woebegon, where, according to Garrison Keillor, all of the men are handsome, all of the women are strong and all of the kids are above average.
All Dodger prospects cannot be non-tradeable. The same with all Dodger players. And you can’t only be willing to trade the players that no one really values anyway. (I’ve seen a lot of trade proposals over the years here in the vein of “Let’s trade Kike Hernandez, Connor Wong and Kenta Maeda for Gerrit Cole”.)
If the Dodgers believe that they have to restructure the roster in some fashion and aren’t willing to spend big $$ and lots of years on a free agent like Cole, then they will have to trade someone good.
When the Dodgers traded Kemp to San Diego for Grandal, I was aghast. Mark called it correctly. Grandal filled an immediate need behind the plate (even if he did have trouble holding onto the ball), Kemp faded fast, and the Dodgers got salary relief.
Will the Dodgers trade Corey Seager? I have no idea. I can see the merits of holding onto him but can also see why they might not. This idea that he is untouchable is just wrong. The only untouchable players on the roster are Cody Bellinger (even though he has never produced in the post-season) and Walker Buehler.
If the Dodgers get Lindor mostly with prospects and trade Seager, we have to look at the team with Lindor and whoever the Dodgers get for Seager. It isn’t so much whether Lindor or Seager is better, it is what we give up for Lindor and get for Seager.
Also, the Dodgers might think that it will be easier to re-sign Lindor that Seager.
A very valid point that AF may in fact believe that it will be easier to re-sign Lindor. Lindor is represented by SportsMeter, the same agency that signed the Ozzie Albies extension to a very team friendly deal with the Braves. While Corey is represented by Boras.
I think that the major needs are a #2 or co-#1 starter, and a top closer. We will not win any title without them. I would be less focused on the starting lineup, we could get by with pretty much what we had this year. I would save whatever money and trade pieces we have to shore up the top of the rotation and the bullpen. Then we can see if we want to move around regular players. I don’t watch much of the American League, but Lindor’s stats, while good, are not overwhelming. And how many players from other teams come to Los Angeles and hit really well? Machado didn’t even do that. I am happy to see us make some changes, but we do not make very many, and I would hate to see them used up by moves which do not get us a closer and a top starter.
I cannot stress this enough. The new 3 batter minimum rule is going to be a game changer. Teams who build their bullpen to function properly under that new rule are going to have big advantages over teams who do not. Any trade assets the Dodgers have should be used to build the bullpen first, then starting pitching but any starting pitching needs to be a CLEAR upgrade.
No to Lindor.
“…but any starting pitching needs to be a CLEAR upgrade.”
I couldn’t agree more with this. As William said, #2 or co-#1 starter.
I would love to have Lindor in LA, but NOT because I consider him an upgrade over Corey. From what I read, Corey would remain in LA, and move over to 3B, where I believe that Corey has the skills to be gold glove caliber. Also, before I go any further I want to mention that I agree with almost everything that Mark and AC wrote.
Corey hit 26 HRs in his rookie year and hit 22 in a sophomore year that was marred by elbow problems in the latter part of that year. He then missed practically all of 2018. It’s nothing I can prove, but I believe Seager is capable of hitting 30-40’HRs. He’s actually about the same size as Bellinger, and I believe weighs a bit more.
Mark and AC mentioned how much more difficult it is to hit HRs in LA than in Cleveland. What they left out (unless I missed it) is how difficult it is to hit HRs in SD and SF, where night games are affected by the same marine layer that holds up balls hit in the air in LA. And what I don’t agree with is that Lindor has more power. The career numbers say he does, but I believe that a fully healthy Seager will hit more HRs.
But the comparison between Seager and Lindor is irrelevant to me. What’s important to me is having two All Star caliber players on the left side of our infield. And Lindor’s speed is something that the Dodgers could use, not to mention his superior defense at short.
And one other thing. If this actually happened, the Dodgers would have no need to pursue Rendon, which no doubt would free up money to be used elsewhere.
If the Dodgers really are pursuing Lindor, then I would imagine they will be asking about Kluber, another former Allstar and 2 time Cy Young winner. Does anyone doubt that if they lose both Ryu and Hill, and left with having Gonsolin and May and Urias as possible starters, they would absolutely need a pitcher like Kluber? Kluber would plug right into this rotation and give it the stability that it needs in this situation. We need another SP badly! Cole would be the logical choice but his price will be very high. Wheeler is not at the same level as Kluber and Wheeler will not be cheap. The young arms we have don’t have the legs to last a whole season. None of them will be up to pitching a full season as a starter. This need for an SP should be the first priority for AF. Maeda and Strip are not true starters. Urias and Gonsolin can do spot starts and I like both their grit. I hope to see them in the rotation in 2021 along with May. But, it is now that I worry about and our rotation is weak.
And by the way, there is no such thing as an untouchable player. Yes, some players are more untouchable than others, but given the right return, any player can be moved.
Agreed. Should the Angels put Mike Trout on the trading block watch how many “untouchables” are offered.
In no way was planning to bring Kershaw in after Bueler was done for the game a bad idea……..until you realize that WB was able to hand the batton so late.
No way, no how was Kershaw needed, or wanted, to pitch the next inning to Rendon and Soto.
He did, and Rendon beat him on a great pitch.
HE HAS TO GO AFTER THAT!! His mental state had to be off at that point. His past demons has to be forefront on his mind………..I am blowing it again. This is evident by the batting practice meat he hung up there for Soto.
On top of that, letting Kelly load the bases is inexcusable in a clinch game. Letting him continue after doing so even jaw droppingly dumb, and then letting him KEEP PITCHING after the granny, was fireable. Literally on the spot. A dad coaching a Little League team on some ragged elementary school campus would pull his pitcher after loading them up.
Roberts blew the game, and unless he was ordered to keep Kershaw and Kelly in no matter the game situation(s), he should be gone. Compound that to all his other historic failure and boneheaded moves and just as foolish to keep him, as his moves.
Roberts may learn from his many mistakes and may win a WS with the Dodgers. It won’t erase the he blew 2017 for sure, made many dumb moves in 2018, and I am convinced that I would be watching the WS with LA in it right now if he does the 8th and 9th with the guys that got him there…….Kolerek and Maeda……maybe Jansen.
Anthony Rendon is making a case for A nice contract with a 3-hit 5 RBI night. And so is Strasbourg who is currently being removed with one out in the 9th, no one on and a 7-2 lead.
Stephen Strasburg just guaranteed that he is going to opt out. Scott Boras has got to be going crazy. What a great last two games for his top three clients in 2019; Gerrit Cole (Game 5), Strasburg (Game 6), and Anthony Rendon (Game 6). Game 7 is going to be fun. Scherzer vs. Greinke could be a classic.
I think this is the first time the visiting team has won each of the six games of the World Series.
And so much for home field advantage. But I guess it can be argued that Rendon has won 3 games in his hometown.
Having home field has not been all too advantageous this year.
Wildcard – both teams with Home Field advantage lost
ALDS – both teams with Home Field advantage won
NLDS – both teams both Home Field advantage lost
ALCS- both teams with Home Field advantage won
NLCS- both teams with Home Field advantage won
WS- in each of the first 6 games the team with Home Field advantage lost
Seems as if Home Field advantage is a bit over-rated.