Yesterday, I wrote that the Dodgers were a young team and what I was specifically referring to was that the “core” was young, especially if Ryu, Hill, Freese, and Martin are not back. The Dodgers had seven (7) rookies impact the team this year:
- Will Smith
- Alex Verdugo
- Gavin Lux
- Tony Gonsolin
- Dustin May
- Kyle Garlick
- Matt Beaty
Next year they will also have a few. The Dodgers are built for the long run and the Yankees and Astros are coming to the end of their runs. The Yankees have deep pockets and can try and “buy” themselves out of trouble, but the Astros don’t have that luxury. Yes, I know that the Astros are going to the World Series and the Yankees just missed it, but both teams have some very difficult issues facing them.
The Problems
You can start with Giancarlo Stanton. Bluto called his contract an albatross. I see it as something from the Titanic. Then, there is their famous bullpen. Chapman and Betances are both free agents and Britton will be 32 next year. Ottavino had an 8.10 ERA in the playoffs and will be 34 next year. They are faced with rebuilding their bullpen as well as their starting staff. Their best starter (German) is most likely done with baseball and only Severino can be called “elite” and there are huge question marks about his health. Tanaka and Paxton are also Mash-Unit Candidates. Their pitching is a mess, to say it kindly.
On the offensive side, Gregorius is a free agent, Gardner is at the end of the line, Yasmani Grandal would be an improvement over Gary Sanchez and there are lots of other issues to deal with. Yankee Stadium and Minute Maid Park are made for DJ LeMahieu. He had his career year and maybe should be the AL MVP. AC pleaded with AF to get him and while he would have been a good addition for the Dodgers, there is no way he would have approached those numbers in LA. If he can finish his career in NY, he might be in the HOF!
The Dodger have a TOP Three Farm System while the Red Sox are the worst in baseball. The Cubs are also near the bottom, while the Yankees are in the bottom third and the Astros are somewhere in the top third. The thing is, with Justin Verlander getting much older, how long will he be dominant and if they lose Gerrit Cole, the entire complexion of the team changes? They do have some good young prospects, but Altuve is certainly headed toward diminishing skills soon, as he will be 30 next year. He is one of the great players in the game and an All-Around Good Guy but is small and aging. How long can he be Superman? If the Astros lose Cole, they are so much of a different team.
So, even if they win this year, the likelihood of sustaining it will be difficult for Houston. The Yankees have an even bigger task. It’s very hard to get to consecutive World Series… ask the Astros. They are the best team in baseball and favorites to win their second World Championship in three years. On paper, they have won, but just like in 1988, you have to play the game and the best team on paper, is not always the Best Team on the field.
Should Andrew Friedman have “sold out” to win it all this year? No way! He didn’t and I am glad he didn’t. I think the sustainability model will ultimately deliver more championships. I really don’t care who wins the Series. I will be glad for either team. I admire what Jeff Luhnow has done and the Nats are a “feel good” story. So many Dodger fans think the solution to the lack of Championships is signing big free agents and spending. The Nats let the biggest free agent of them all walk… and they got there without him. Think about that one.
After getting off to a slow start in the AFL, Devin Mann has multiple hits in two of his past three games after finishing 2-for-3 on Saturday night. The second baseman, a Louisville product, is hitting .186 in Arizona, but the recent hot streak could point toward a strong finish over the season’s final week.
Biggest Disappointments
- Omar Estevez is hitting .270, but only has 1 extra-base hit in his 17 hits. That won’t play at the next level.
- Jeren Kendall continues to strike out at an unbelievable rate. He has 27 K’s in 52 AB’s. I can’t see wasting a roster spot…
Both players could be headed elsewhere. Overall, the Dodgers are loaded with minor league prospects… some suspects as well.
That DJ LeMehue HR was not struck as well as Will Smith’s warning track shot. Altuve’s a stud! I love that little guy. But, Chapman served him up a marshmellow.
MT, I think you’re right. Houston is in the decline phase after this year. Losing Cole is going to be pretty tough on them. I also agree with you about the Yankees. The entire pitching staff is a mess with those starters being mediocre and the bullpen losing key pieces. No one else is the AL look like they will be as good next year as these teams were this year.
If AF does his job this offseason, we’ll be in a good position to finally get that ring in 2020. I can’t see the Dodgers spending less than the $200M mark on payroll next year.
I predict that they will pay the Luxury Tax the next two years… but not a lot!
Hoefully, they change placed with the Red Sox the next two years and that would afford them Rendon and Cole. No use perusing the bargain bin, we have enough youngsters that will give you that sort of production.
Sporting News’ Dan Bernstein differs with you, Mark:
“Houston, historically far from baseball royalty, is everything New York and Los Angeles wish they were. A third straight ALCS appearance and second World Series showing (clinched by a walk-off 6-4 win over the Yankees on Saturday) in three years underlines that point, as do the recent failures of its top rivals.
The Astros have struck at the right moments in recent years to stack the deck in their favor come October, while the Yankees and Dodgers have repeatedly disappointed in that regard…
Los Angeles, meanwhile, did not add an elite relief pitcher before this year’s trade deadline despite its bullpen being an obvious flaw given the decline of Kenley Jansen. It had plenty of prospect ammo from which to deal. It did nothing. In Game 5 of the NLDS, its bullpen melted down, sending it out of the postseason two rounds earlier than in 2017 and 2018.
There have not been stunning managerial mistakes like the ones Dave Roberts made in the NLDS this season. There have not been inexplicable mid-career declines such as Sonny Gray in New York that were made to look bad by success elsewhere. Rather, most players have improved upon joining the Astros.
The Yankees and Dodgers, given their esteemed histories, are expected to do what it takes to be a step ahead of the league. They are not at that level right now.”
If the “window” is closing on the Astros, they will have at least 1 and possibly 2 World Series titles to show for it. The Dodgers?
I don’t see anything that contradicts or disagrees with what Mark said. The article you quote from looks backwards at what the Astros did right and what the Dodgers and Yankees did not do. Where as Mark’s words are forward looking. If the Astros don’t sign Cole, Stras or Wheeler, or finish emptying the farm on someone else, they’re taking a big step backwards and will have probably the oldest 1 and 2 to head their rotation in all of baseball. They’ll have to do something to address their pitching. The lineup is very much in their primes, so it’s not going to be a total meltdown. They’ll still be good for a few more years, it’s gonna be all abut pitching with them.
The Astros should re-sign Cole and trade Greinke. They would still be the class of the AL.
Mark, I agree with you about the sustainability model, and always have. However, there is nothing wrong with supplementing it with occasional high end free agents or trade pieces when the farm system is not quite ready to produce championship caliber replacements when they’re needed. Now, I believe is such a time.
The Dodgers are close to being championship caliber. But there are some areas of concern. Although he is still mostly productive, JT is clearly not quite the player he was, and it would seem that a move to 1B is called for. Hence, Anthony Rendon, especially since there is no 3B alternative in our farm system that is close to being ready. And of course Rendon would help mitigate our vulnerability against lefthanded pitching. And so would another right-handed bat, be it Castellanos. or someone else I’m not thinking of or aware of.
We have a bunch of young, talented pitching. But youth brings inexperience, and there is little doubt that an experienced addition or two would be welcome. Cole fits that bill, and so might Wheeler, and any other names that I am not aware of now. That won’t throw a roadblock in front of our young pitchers, but simply make it necessary for them to earn roles, be it in the rotation or in the pen. Remember, you can never have enough pitching.
If the Dodgers have the financial flexibility to spend, and spend wisely, then they need to do it.
This is the first time in the AF era that it has made sense to give out a long term big buck deal to a pitcher like Cole. It’s a risk, maybe even a dope-fiend move but it’s time.
Houston had the salary flexibility to add Verlander, Cole, and Greinke due to the way they were built. The drivel from the Sporting News assumes all the teams operate in a vacuum, but as I have repeatedly said, the Astros blew it up and sucked for years. The Dodgers built it by being competitive. Houston built it by not being competitive. I have no problem with that! But comparing the two teams is moronic.
This is a new paradigm for the Dodgers. I would give up one draft pick for Cole, but not one for Rendon. I would sign Casstellanos instead.
Yes, the Astros used the crash and burn method to become good, but because they had a lot of young players, they were also opportunistic in acquiring Verlander, Cole and now Greinke. Verlander has been a difference maker, but without Cole, Houston is just not the same team. Unless they can figure out a way to keep Cole or replace him, good luck with that, they’ll take a step back. Verlander and Greinke are good, but will they continue to be at the elite level. I’m not sure Greinke is there now. In order to succeed they may need to alter the approach, which kind of puts them into the same approach used by the Dodgers the past seven years. More than one path to get there.
Realistically, the Dodgers really don’t have to change anything to win the NL West and the NL championship. They could walk right in, get hot and win the World Series with pretty much the same team and a minor tweak of two. This year they hit an incredible hot Washington Nationals team, led by two top line starters, and lost a game they should have won. Life goes on.
So, if the Dodgers do not land Cole or Rendon, it won’t be the end of the world. They’re still a championship level team with a great young core and more on the way. The question is really … does signing Cole or Rendon, on paper, make them better? No doubt. Does it win them a World Series? Maybe. Does it make the fan base happy? Absolutely. Will it make all the people who follow and post on this site happy? Probably, but it’s a tough group.
I would give up a draft pick for Rendon in a split second, a New York minute or whatever other time frame you want to measure it in. There might be other reasons I wouldn’t ultimately sign him (length of contract, dollars, etc.) but I sure wouldn’t let a draft pick stand in my way.
I’m not saying I wouldn’t sign Castellanos under any set of circumstances, but I don’t think there is any comparison between the two in player value. Rendon is miles ahead of him. I realize, however, that Rendon would come at a much higher cost.
After watching ALDS Game 6, it is becoming increasingly clear that relief pitching is no longer an art. It is more of a mess now than it has ever been in the years I have been following baseball. There is not one reliever out there, FA or otherwise that I believe is the answer. I would not pay $10MM + for any of the FA pitchers including Will Smith. I might give Dellin Betances an incentive laden one year contract that will allow him to prove himself for another FA run in 2021. I would not offer any difference maker with multiple years of team control even for Aaron Bummer. If I was AF I would offer Joc, Edwin Rios, and maybe a lottery pick pitcher for him, but there is no way I would offer Strip in that trade. I might trade for Ken Giles, but I would not include any top ten prospects. Maybe 2 from the 20-30 range, and an unknown lottery pick.
I have been saying for the last several years that the Dodgers have continually ignored the bullpen, and I still believe that. But the bullpen was setup to win Game 5 until Doc thought he was smarter than the game that we were all watching. You cannot say that you have a championship bullpen on one side of your mouth and then say you are okay with how the 8th and 10th innings worked out in Game 5. If it is a championship bullpen, then let them show it.
Mark brought up Mariano Rivera yesterday, indicating even he had a bad year. I am assuming he was referring to his rookie year. But Mariano started more games than he relieved in 1995. He did not become a full time reliever until 1996. From 1996-2013 (18 years) he had a 2.03 ERA and 0.972 and averaged 41 saves. His worst year in that group was in 2007 (at age 37), he had a 3.15 ERA and 1.121 WHIP, with 30 saves and 4 blown saves. In 2013 (his final year at 43), he had 44 saves. Mariano stands alone. Maybe it is time to sit down with Tony Gonsolin and ask him to take the Mariano route. Mariano was 25 in his rookie year, same age as Tony. It is time for Caleb Ferguson to realize that he is not going to get that third pitch and look more to become an Andrew Miller. Maybe it is time for AF to rip up Maeda’s contract , and give him more in guaranteed dollars to work permanently from the bullpen. Maybe he can become a closer. Maybe not. Maybe KJ turns it around in 2020, but he is going to need to adapt to his decreasing velocity and movement of his cutter. Regardless, AF has to have a plan for the bullpen which has been an Achilles heal for LAD the last few years.
As hard as I have been on AF with respect to the bullpen. I am giving him a pass on the last deadline. He tried for Vazquez, and thank goodness Neal Huntington is a dope. They were interested in Giles, but there were arm concerns at the time. He allegedly received a cortisone shot in his elbow right at the deadline and they passed. Shane Greene failed as a closer for Atlanta, although he did well as an 8th inning setup. Melancon cost way too much. Who else was available or moved? Is there anyone this winter? I am not sure the answer is $10MM+ for Will Smith or a 3 year contract for Will Harris. Just as I think that Clayton realizes that he needs to adjust his game, I do believe AF realizes that a solid bullpen is a huge benefit and will find the pieces necessary to create one. It is not enough to say that we can move 4-5 starters to the pen for the playoffs.
AC, just wondering your opinion on Mariano. I would not vote for him in the Hall of Fame because he’s a relief pitcher, which is by definition not good enough to be a starting pitcher. If he’s not even good enough to start how can he possibly be in the Hall of Fame?
Just wondering your thoughts…
Mariano is the very best relief pitcher to ever play. There is nobody close. Relief pitching is a position, and in many of our opinion’s a very important position. I would not have included Bruce Sutter, Dennis Eckersly, Lee Smith, Rollie Fingers, or Goose Gossage in the HOF. The only other relief pitcher that I MIGHT have included would have been Trevor Hoffman. For relievers and DH, I would not include anyone who was not considered the best. Edgar Martinez is far and away the best DH to ever play and IMO deserved to be in the Hall. Big Papi played a lot of 1B before he was strictly a DH but he will get true consideration for the HOF and deservedly so. Although I may be partial to Papi.
But the standard for a reliever in the HOF is Mariano and the standard for DH is Edgar Martinez. If they do not surpass those players, I do not believe that they belong.
I’d still trade for Bummer. Stripling, Rios and make them eat a bad contract Joe Kelly (save 8.3 million for the next 2 years to go for Cole and Strasburg).
Giles for Garcia (out of options) and Dennis Santana.
Sign Will Harris for 3 years.
Good takes today from Mark and AC on what the Dodgers should or should not do. Thanks,
AC….what do you think of the proposed plan to restructure the minor league system? It seems to me there needs to be improvements on some facilities, travel and hotel accommodations and especially salary and if some of the players are making below minimum wage, it needs to be rectified. Do you think by eliminating teams is the answer? And, also how bad, if you know, is this the situation with the Dodger’s minor league teams?
I have only been to a few minor league parks to watch games, Raley Field in Sacramento and one in Salt Lake City. Both park facilities were first class but others may not be.
I have mixed feelings on the proposed restructure. The players deserve better accommodations, better travel arrangements, and better compensation. But the reduction of teams necessarily means a reduction of the number of players. Make no mistake that this change is meant to minimize the costs for the MLB teams. There is no other reason for the proposal. They may have to increase their payroll and travel costs, but the number of athletes will be reduced. Thus the impact will be marginalized. This will also reduce the draft to 20-25 rounds. Having my son being a 26th round draft pick, could he have signed as a non-drafted FA or would he have to go to one of those “dream teams”? Even with the “hype” those will be cattle calls and not get much notice by teams. Scouting departments are getting minimized because of SABRmetrics. So how many scouts would see anyone stand out on one of these “dream teams”? Yes it would happen, but only as often as it does now with Independent League players.
I think this is a compromise for the lesser funded teams. IMO if they cannot afford to develop as many athletes as they can, they need to get out of the business. The Dodgers do a very good job of developing their players and their facilities and developmental coaches prove it. OKC, Tulsa, Rancho, and the AZ facilities are top notch. I have never seen Great Lakes, so I do not know what those facilities are like. Mark, DC, or Hawkeye are best to offer their opinion on those facilities.
AZ Rookie League will be limited to one team for each franchise. The Dodgers and many others had two teams in the AZ Rookie League. The Northwest League is the only Rookie League being considered to be changed to full season, but the Dodgers do not have any teams in that league. The Ogden Raptors and the other Pioneer League teams would end up as one of those “dream teams”.
There is no mention on the Dominican Summer League, so the Dodgers could still have 2 teams there. But if this goes thru, as it stands now, there will be OKC in AAA (but they may be moved to the International League), Tulsa in AA, Rancho Cucamonga in A+, Great Lakes in full season A, and one AZ Rookie League team.
This is a topic I would love to sit down with Stan Kasten and try to understand.
Well after reading what you said then it may not be a good idea. I wondered if it was all mostly about money and cutting costs. I just do not understand that by losing so many players or teams why that would help baseball .Just my opinion, having had a relative in the minor hockey system and knowing some of what he went through.
Why shouldn’t the number of players be reduced?
From what I understand less than 10% of all players drafted 12th-20th Rounds make the major even for just one year. Less than 5% play for more than 3 years.
Lots of needless churn, no?
There’s a good Baseball America podcast where the hosts talk about how many of the minor league facilities are inadequate in terms of space.
Before moving any player with a large contract, the Dodgers have about $40MM to spend. AF has never been in this position before, so nobody can say that this is not the AF way. The ownership group has said that they want to stay near the CBT (a little over or a little under). I can see AF spending on one high cost dope fiend contract. I stated last week that if I were AF I would not be outbid for Gerrit Cole. The problem is that Arte Moreno is not going to go down without a huge fight. He has never been shy about spending and with the Trout contract he is not going to let a pitcher from his back yard go without a huge offer that will undoubtedly test even the most aggressive front office. Cole is a Boras client so he is going to wait forever to get the last dollar he can get. Boras is going to get NYY and LAA bidding against each other. If Cole wants to be a Dodger, AF will make a serious bid. But if Cole wants to surpass Scherzer and Price, I would agree that AF is not going to get into that auction. We fans may want him to, but AF leaves his emotions at home and nowhere near his office.
I was all in on Zach Wheeler in the 2018 deadline, and I still see him as a quality starting pitcher. The problem is that he is from Dallas and Texas needs starting pitching and is willing to pay. They could use a high level FA pitcher for their new stadium. If Houston loses Cole, they will still have the dollars for Zach. I also believe that Rick Porcello is a good option to get the Brent Strom treatment. Houston is also going to get Lance McCullers back for next year. I absolutely believe the Astros will be a serious contender again in 2020.
If Strasburg opts out (very good chance), San Diego will be all over him. He is from San Diego and went to San Diego State. He would be the big name pitcher they are looking for. This is the perfect opportunity for Stras to opt and go where he wants to.
Jake Odorizzi is a quality starter, but not at the elite level. He is no more than a #3. He loved pitching in Minnesota and Minnesota says they will pay for pitching this winter. He is a likely candidate to be re-signed by Minnesota.
While I think it would be a coup to get MadBum at a reasonable deal, I see no way that MadBum would ever wear Dodger Blue, and while I do believe that AF would relinquish a draft pick for the right FA, I do not believe he would for MadBum. I see MadBum in the Atlanta rotation next year, making them even better.
So if the Dodgers are going to get a co-Ace to go with Buehler it is either going to need to come from within, or via a trade. I still like Corey Kluber for one year, and I do not believe that it will take a king’s ransom of prospects to get it done. Ross Stripling would be a good place to start. One year of Kluber allows the “kids” to develop at a less frenetic pace. One other option that is plausible is that Boras will oversell Ryu and not get what he wants for Ryu, and Ryu could come back to LAD on fair terms in both length and dollars. I think AF waits to see what develops with the Ryu market.
After watching the two LCS, I am convinced that there is no reliever that is a lock, and that good hitting can beat them. Anthony Rendon seems like the logical candidate as he fits the Dodgers plan for a shorter term higher AAV contract with no deferred money. Washington will not lose both Strasburg and Rendon. So I can see them offering Rendon a contract to stay. Rendon is also a Boras client, so he is going to let teams outbid each other, and that is not a game that AF plays.
I do believe that AF will call Boston and try to work something out for Mookie Betts for one year. But he will not be snookered. Gavin Lux and Dustin May will not get traded for one year of Mookie Betts. If he does work something out, it will hurt, and it will involve names that many here will complain about.
By the way, Mark can pontificate all he wants about how DJLM would not hit in LA. There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that that is true. I can say that DJLM would hit .340 with a .950 OPS in LA and I would be just as correct as Mark saying he couldn’t. We will never know because IMO, the biggest mistake AF made last year was not signing DJLM. Instead he signed AJ Pollock for more money and more years.
I like your idea of going back to Kluber again. A year less remaining on his contract and a basically wasted year for him last year should bring down the price dramatically. What do you think it would take to get the Indians’ attention? Do you think Strip and Joc would get it done? Is that too much considering we have no idea how effective Kluber will be from now on? Right this minute, I think I would do that deal, but if you ask me in 10 minutes I might have changed my mind. If we were to get him and he had a good year, there is a team option for 2021. High risk, high reward.
Why the hell would the Dodgers trade for 1 year of Mookie Betts or Corey Kluber but yet trade Joc because he has only 1 year left on his contract?
Since Cole and Strasburg are from southern California why not offer them a decent contract to play on a southern California playoff bound team like the Dodgers. No other southern California team is going to the playoffs anytime soon.
I wouldn’t trade for one year of Mookie because the cost would be outrageous.
I would trade Joc because I don’t expect that we’ll re-sign him and I’d rather have an everyday outfield of Belli/Verdugo and a right handed bat to be named later, but someone who wouldn’t have to be platooned. I realize that there are others here who really like Joc and want to keep and even re-sign him. I understand that. I just happen to feel there are better alternatives.
Kluber has team options for 2020 and 2021 so, assuming he’s healthy, you’re actually trading for 2 years of his pitching.
Eric, you would rather have Joc than Mookie or Kluber? I wouldn’t. Difference of opinion. Then again you would trade Seager to get less LH hitters. So we are not going to agree on much with players.
As far as Cole goes, he lives in Newport Beach. Arte Moreno has not been shy about spending stupid money. I am betting that Moreno will not be outbid for Cole. Just because fans may want a certain player, that player has to want to play for the team. Cole grew up a NYY fan because of his father, but grew up in LAA’s backyard. The Dodgers would seem to be no better than #3 on his list.
I wouldn’t trade Seager. But I would give him a certain amount of at bats against left handed pitching and if he fails I’d platoon him with Taylor.
I doubt that Cole or Strasburg will end up with the Dodgers. Both are Boras clients. I suspect that Cole will hold out for years and not AAV and that’s not the Braintrust way of doing business. Strasburg will want to stay in DC I suspect. That’s why Wheeler is attractive, although he doesn’t have the track record of either Cole or Strasburg. He looked to be healthy last year and his stuff is impressive.
No to Bumgarner and Kluber. Both showed evidence of decline last season.
If, as has been written, Rendon is interested in fewer seasons and an early retirement, then LA might be a good landing spot.
The Brainstrust has done little to build the bullpen and what efforts it has made were not designed to be successful (see Joe “Wild Man” Kelly). The only free agent RP that interests me is Will Smith. Betances has been injury prone and has always had trouble throwing strikes.
I still wonder about the possibility of signing a failed starter who once had upside (Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey, Chris Archer) and turning them into a reliever. All of them throw very hard.
I do not disagree that LAD will not sign either Cole or Strasburg. I do not believe that it will be because AF will not go hard after either one. The player has to want to play for the team. However, I do not agree that Strasburg will stay in Washington. He has four years and $100MM remaining, and it sure seems like this is why Stras has the option. He is a Boras client and Boras is not going to let him sell short again. He is a San Diego guy, and AJ Preller is going to need to bring in an elite pitcher this year to save his job, and Strasburg could be that guy. I think it is just as likely that he ends up in SD as he does in Washington.
I do not disagree that AF has not done enough to build the bullpen, but your idea of bringing in Shelby Miller, Matt Harvey or Chris Archer to pitch relief would be the same as you have always complained about the “braintrust” signing these injury prone arms. It is conceivable, but are we now only interested in guys throwing hard. Dylan Floro and Yimi Garcia throw hard as did Josh Fields, but none of those or the pitchers you mentioned throw harder than Pedro Baez. If your suggestion is to sign them to a minor league contract with a ST invite, that would be fine with me. Not likely to happen, but maybe. Plus I would want to know more about Harvey in the Tyler Skaggs issue that he was interviewed by federal officials for before I made any kind of offer.
You and I just disagree on Kluber. $17.5MM for a two time CY winner and someone who routinely threw 200+ innings (5 consecutive years before last year). His buyout for 2021 is $1.0MM so $18.5MM guaranteed. He turns 34 next year, certainly not too old, and nowhere near the guarantee others will have. You cannot say he showed decline last year. He got hurt after only 7 games with a broken forearm in a game. Not the same as an arm injury due to usage. Depending on the cost in trade, he is certainly worth the gamble.
Well, we agree on DJLM over Pollock, but just like last night, many of DJLM’s HR ‘s were because of playing in Yankee Stadium. In fact, 19 of his 26 HR were in Yankee Stadium. I think that is evidence in and of itself. He has played 9 years in MLB and 1/3 of his HR came the year he went to the Yankees. Yankee Stadium’s short porches were made for him. I still rue the day Friedman signed Pollock.
With Doc as the manager, I have a hard time believing the Dodgers will win a championship even if AF stacks the team with elite players which he won’t and I don’t expect him to.
Doc doesn’t identify reverse splits. Doc starts Pollock against both RHP and LHP even though Pollock was struggling against RHP all season long. Doc puts Kershaw in game 5 even though Kershaw’s season ERA in first inning pitched was 7.45 and first 15 pitches was 6.94. Doc puts Joe wild man Kelly in game 5 with the game on the line. I can go on and on.
Doc is the problem.
I would venture that every time a manager makes a move that fails, you can find stats to support that position. It’s easy to start at the result and work back. Cora made a lot of counter-intuitive moves last season and it works. It all boils down to execution.
You can find statistical support for just about any matchup. Adam Ottavino had a 1.90 ERA in the regular season, but in the playoffs, it jumped to 11.57. Was Boone an idiot for using him or was it a lack of execution?
There may be 10,000 people who disagree with me, but Clayton did not execute. That’s the issue. If you pay a guy $33 million a year, you shouldn’t have to hide him. I still have no issue with Clayton (although I would likely not do it again), but I do find it curious that he left Kelly in so long. That one troubles me the most.
One FA reliever that I would hope AF would consider is Drew Pomeranz. When he went into the bullpen for Milwaukee he was very good. He cannot start, but he took to relief very well. In 28 relief appearances last year (28.2 IP), his numbers were .165/.226/.278/.505. His ERA was 1.88 and his WHIP was 0.837.
Dodgerrick mentioned throwing hard as a metric to be considered for relief. I will say again that the Dodgers should look at Michael Lorenzen. He is a Southern California kid and touches 100. He could also double as a RH bat off the bench.
The Dodgers could do worse than acquire both Pomeranz (LHRP) and Lorenzen (RHRP).
Pomeranz has pitched relief before but never with the same results as last year. Past stats show he is definitely more likely for success out of the bullpen but his time with Milwaukee was ridiculous. If AF is convinced he’s found “the secret” I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him make Pomeranz an offer.
With regard to Lorenzen, the Reds have two more years of control on him. Not sure why they would want to move him, but if they would consider it, do you think Stripling for Lorenzen is worth talking about?
Regarding fewer minor league teams;
A few days ago someone linked an article describing how MLB organizations are starting to value training their minor leaguers together in larger group settings rather than separate into remote teams all over the country. That way more players will receive direct coaching from the best coaches/trainers in one place, such as Camelback Ranch.
European soccer teams do this, and the Astros have already started doing it. In fact, the Astros already dropped two minor league affiliates. The training they receive directly from excellent coaches in one location is better than from some minor league instructor in Utah or Maine. The players actually progress better when they receive elite training at a development facility than they do from minor league instructors. They don’t waste time playing meaningless minor league games against inferior players, almost all of whom will never get close to the Majors.
So, the idea is to focus on quickly and efficiently getting your best players major-league-ready. It makes sense to focus on the best talent. Fewer players will play minor league ball, but the entire reason for minor league existence is to benefit the major league team.
The independent minor leagues will still get scouted. You never know when you’ll find the next Andy Dominique, Mike Piazza (62nd round), or Orlando Hudson (43rd round).