The Shuffle Continues

We may not know what we think we know and don’t know what we don’t know and I hope we know that we don’t know. Confused? I know…

  • We know Justin Turner can walk – we don’t know if he can run. We will find out today. It seems that they are just being cautious and if this were the postseason he would be playing.
  • We know that Dick Mountain will start on Tuesday – we don’t know if he will be effective. Even if he can only throw one or two innings, he will be on the playoff roster. We don’t know if he can.
  • We know that CT3 and Kike will be the “Stuntmen” along with David Freese, Matt Beaty, and Russell Martin. That’s a pretty dad-gum good group of Swiss Army Knives! It’s nice to see Kike and CT3 getting their hit tools back.
  • We know that Alex Verdugo will not be on the NLDS Roster – we also know that Gavin Lux will take his place. At least, I think we know that…
  • I know that the bullpen for the postseason will be different from the one we have seen all year. Let’s not forget that Kershaw and Buehler will quite likely come out of the pen for an inning or so between starts rather than throwing in the pen. They will likely come in to start “clean innings” if needed. Depending upon off days, it’s possible a 4th starter won’t be needed. We know that Pedro Baez, Kenley Jansen, Adam Kolark, Casey Sadler, and Julio Urias will be in the bullpen with Kenta Maeda
  • We know we don’t know who of Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Ross Stripling, Joe Kelly, Yimi Garcia, Dylan Floro, and Caleb Ferguson will be on the roster. Some good pitchers will be left off.
  • We do know that Scott Alexander, JT Chargois, Josh Sborz, and Dennis Santana will not be on the playoff roster.
  • We know that Will Smith is showing signs of coming out of his slump. Hopefully, he can go on another tear!
  • You should know that every team has challenges and problems (or opportunities): The Nats, the Braves, the Yankees and the Astros all have injuries and key players missing or in question. The Astros top reliever just came back from knee surgery in a month. Is that enough time? As the playoff cast is aligned, we will focus on the issues each team faces.

Right about now, Doc just wants to keep the players healthy and fresh. The Dodgers are 7-3 in their last ten games and some fans are worrying so much it is “shrinking their brain mass and destroying their IQ’s” (I’m being sarcastic).

Something to Consider…

Verlander, Cole, and Greinke all have pitched over 200 innings for the Astros. That’s a great thing… right? Well, will they be as “fresh” as Dodger starters? Kershaw has given up 28 HR, but Cole has given up 26 and Verlander has given up 34. Greinke has given up 21. Kershaw and Buehler have both pitched 171 innings and Ryu has 168. The extra innings could make a difference. It’s just a thought.

Arizona Fall League – Day 3

The Glendale Desert Dogs moved to 0-3 as they were stung by the Scottsdale Scorpions 3-2 (see what I did there?). Omar Estevez started at 2B and hit leadoff. He was 2-4. Jeren Kendall was 1-4 with a double and 1 strikeout. Marshall Kasowski came in to pitch the 9th inning with the score tied 2-2 and Nick Maton, the Phillies #14 Prospect hit a walk-off home run. If Marshall can develop a second pitch in the AFL, he could be the Dodgers closer. Of course, if I had half a brain I could be Einstein.

After the 0-3 start, maybe they are the “Dessert Dogs”

This article has 36 Comments

  1. Mark. “Stung by the Scottsdale Scorpions”. I loved the alliteration if that is what you meant. If not, well I also loved your breakdown of possible playoff rosters. Do I have my favorites that I hope to see make it? Absolutely, like Beaty, Lux and Smith. I have no idea who to leave off. I am holding my breath but will leave it up to the experts to decide and will root for whomever they choose. And the roster can change between the different series, can it not? DBM.

  2. The best point that you made is that there are going to be good pitchers left off the roster. It stands to reason that the roster is going to be loaded with good pitchers. Not worried about the pitching at all. Well, maybe all those Kershaw 1st inning homers, just a little worried about that.

    1. I’m worried about the pitching. I’m not worried about the offense now that I know Turner will be active in the playoffs and it seems Muncy is healthy enough. Would love to have Verdugo in the playoffs.

  3. For home field, our magic number to get home field thru the NL playoffs is 3 over Atlanta. I’d bet $1.50 that we clinch that within the next few days .

    Houston has 53 losses, and LA/NY have 55 losses. Houston beat NY 4-3 in the season series, so Houston has that tiebreaker. Houston also holds the tie breaker over us, due to inter-division record (I think). Having said that, I can’t see LA or NY gaining 3 games on the Astros in the final 8 games! Therefore, I’ll concede Houston gets home field throughout the playoffs.

    However, we’re now tied in the loss column with the Yanks, which means we’re really 1 game back of the Yanks (since they beat us 2-1 in the season series). So there is a chance over the next 7-8 games that we could gain that game on NY this final week and have home field over NY in a potential World Series matchup.

    Gona be a fun week kids!

    1. Do not underestimate the Twins, Indians, Rays, or A’s ability to knock off the Yankees and Astros in a short series

  4. Everyone (almost) talks about HFA with the Astros and Yankees, but the A’s could be hot at the right time and be the NL’s opponent. Still looking for the Dodgers to take the NL. IMO the Braves seem to be the biggest threat, but any of the teams in the playoff can get hot and take it all.

    1. right, but those teams most likely won’t be passing up for World Series home field, so for that reason only I didn’t include them in my essay

  5. Not sure that Sadler is a lock and Roberts has said that Stripling will pitch out of the ‘pen – he’ll probably be long man. I don’t see Wild Man Kelly being left off either. He is being discussed as a late inning alternative to Jansen or being pushed into the “fireman” role. Everything that i read predicts a 12 man staff, at least in the 1st round. As I see it the locks are:
    Starters
    Kershaw
    Ryu
    Buelher

    Bullpen
    Jansen
    Baez
    Maeda
    Kelly
    Stripling
    Urias
    Kolarek

    That leaves 2 spots. Hill will get one if he can pitch. If not, my guess is that Gonsolin takes his place. That leaves one spot for one more reliever, probably from between Sadler, Ferguson and HR Garcia and Floro, depending on hot hand and match-ups. I predict that if a 4th starter is needed in the 1st round it will be either Hill or Gonsolin.

    1. My guess is that there’s no way Floro makes it and Gonsolin makes it for sure. I also agree with the 10 you listed. For me, it comes down to Sadler, Yimi, May, Ferguson and Hill. If Hill pitches well on Tuesday, case closed. If he doesn’t, it opens the case for the others. Yimi and Sadler have been two of our best relievers since the all star game. Ferguson would get the nod if they feel they need another lefty and May may just get it based on what have you done for me lately (nothing but zeros in his last 4 games).

  6. Andy Green dismissed by the Pads. Interesting take that they signed Machado but would not do anything about their lack of pitching, and that is Green’s fault. Their farm pitching is good but not ready. When MacKenzie Gore gets called, that will be a different team. Paddack needed this year as did Quantrill. Lauer and Lucchesi were it going into the season. How is Green supposed to win with that, and you tie up $300MM in one player? It wasn’t Green that gave away Brad Hand. No I do not think Francisco Mejia is equal to Brad Hand, much less Brad Hand and Adam Cimber. It wasn’t Green that traded budding star and Dodger killer Franmil Reyes and a good looking LHSP, Logan Allen for OF Taylor Trammel, who has not lived up to his expectations. In the Winter, Trammell was considered untouchable by Cincy. I guess not so much at the deadline. Cincinnati made out and Cleveland made out, not so much the Padres.

    I am not a Padres fan, but I do not see that Green needed to be terminated especially before the season ended. Maybe there is another reason that I have not read.

      1. I agree with Mark and AC (Once again, welcome back brother). This is all on Preller and the roster he put together. And I am calling this shot, if the Phillies don’t make the play-offs, Kapler is gone too. Those two HUGE BOAT ANCHOR contracts are not the managers faults, is all on the GM and ownership. This is a great time to shut up all the arm chair Dodger GM’s out there that continually bash Freidman for his lack of “All In”moves. There is a reason we have had almost unlimited talent every friggin year coming up from the minors and are now sparring amongst each other to see which OKC guy makes the play-off roster. They are there because Friedman stayed the course, got roasted by the fans for it, but didn’t trade the teams future away. And now our future looks even brighter for the next 4 to 5 years than it did last year, when we went to the World Series. Heard a guy on the radio the other day and he said it perfectly. ” I am so tired of Dodger fans bitching about how “if they don’t win the whole thing this year, it’s been a total lost season”. Why don’t you talk to some Seattle and Baltimore fans about how you are tired of making the play-offs every year and not winning the whole thing. They would slap you in the face.” We are so spoiled with this 7 year run, and most of it is because starting with Uncle Ned, and having Friedman take it to the next level, they both wouldn’t trade certain guys not matter what. Look how it’s paying off. We don’t need to sign some insane contract that bogs us down for years just to get THAT GUY. We have those guys, we just need to get a ticket to the dance every year and one of these times we will break the dam door down. I would much rather have a shot every year instead of going “all in” for one ring, and of course I want to break the ’88 drought, but not at the cost of being terrible for the next 7 or 8 years. Hell no.

        1. Because our standards are a tad higher than Seattle or Baltimore. If you want to lump us in that garbage category, so be it, but I refuse to.

          I’ll compare us with the elite, historic organizations: Yankees, Cowboys, Lakers, Manchester United (sorry Watford): teams where titles MATTER and the goal is to WIN THE TITLE, and not be compared to the Mariners or the Orioles.

          I agree it’s a remarkable run to win 7 straight divisions, and it’s even more remarkable to look ahead and see that we’re set up for many more with this young nucleus, a top 3 farm, and cash to spend whenever we need to. And I’ll agree to an extent that the playoffs can be luck and about who gets hot. But this team, this organization, and this city, need to win a title. That’s it. There is no other answer.

          But at the end of the day, I will not go ask fans of the Mariners, the Detroit Lions, the Washington Wizards, or the San Jose State Spartans about how they feel. Their expectation levels are 3-5 different levels beneath ours.

          1. I agree with you Bobby. AF is smart enough to know who the difference makers are and I keep keeping an open mind that he’ll make the trade, or sign the guy when the opportunity is right.

            I’m not going to bash the Padres for spending that kind of cash on Machado when he’s arguably the second best player on the team to Tatis Jr. and the sold about 100,000 more tickets than last year. And the fact that almost all of their top prospects are pitchers.

            I’m also not going to bash the Phillies when they sold a whopping 500,000 more tickets than last year, Bryce’s jersey is the top selling jersey this year and he had a damn productive year after a slow start.

            Both of these moves were more right for these teams than they would have been for ours. This is fine, because neither of them will be competing for Rendon’s services this year. We didn’t need another left handed bat, and I think they decided that Manny was the guy they wanted during their test drive.

            Our roster is very good, it’s a good time to be choosey and hold out for the right guy.

  7. I also thought it was strange that the firing was done with a week left in the season. That makes Green look even worse. Like saying “we just have to get rid of him this very minute”.

    Girardi and Showalter are out there and could be interviewed immediately but I’m not sure those are Preller’s kind of guys. Unless the Cubs go really far in the playoffs Maddon will almost certainly be available also.

    Maybe more details will come out about why the firing was done now.

    1. Someone just pointed out on twitter that Green is now free to replace Bochy in SF and follow his career path to 2000 victories. 🙂

          1. That would be the wild card, so yes they do give rings occasionally for finishing second and the Giants have one of those already.

  8. Some Dodger news:

    Max Muncy (quad) is “playable” tonight, Dave Roberts said, should start tomorrow.

    Rich Hill came out of his sim game healthy and starts Tuesday in SD.

    Roberts said Will Smith catches Ryu tomorrow, despite better numbers with Martin behind the plate.

    Roberts said Joe Kelly’s vague lower body issues will require continued limited usage until the postseason.

    1. Dodgers top draft picks from this year — IF Kody Hoese, IF Michael Busch, RHP Jimmy Lewis are at the game tonight.

  9. I realize this is a Dodger blog so my apologies to those who don’t want to talk about the Padres, but one of their beat writers just posted a list of the guys they are considering to replace Green: Mike Scioscia, Moises Alou, Ron Washington, Mark Loretta and………………………………………………….Bruce Bochy.

    1. Good for the Padres. I would love to see Scioscia have another shot, it’s too bad he never got a chance with the Dodgers. Actually, it’s a damn shame. A Bochy return would also be kinda cool. There’s a ton of old school in that list!

  10. Bob Geren might get a call as well. Excellent x’s and o’s Tactician with a nice mix of old
    and new baseball.

    1. Geren is certainly a good tactician but he had mixed reviews at his last managerial job.
      Eric Byrnes said he was the best manager he ever played for but one of his pitchers (can’t remember who) said he was the worst manager he ever played for. The pitcher said Geren never talked to his pitchers to explain what he expected of them.
      This is why Doc and Geren are the ideal pairing. Doc for his people skills and Geren for using stats.

      1. AJ Hinch didn’t exactly have a stellar start to his managerial career with the DBacks. I am sure Geren has grown quite a bit since his managerial days with Oakland. Maybe Geren likes being a bench coach. Certainly Brad Mills is much happier as Tito Francona’s looooong time bench coach more than he was as manager for the Astros.

  11. I try not to comment on the lineups, but believe me, I could on a daily basis. But, I was surprised to see Kike on the bench against a lefty. Anyone reading anything into this? Taylor’s hitting in-between Cody and Corey. I would imagine that he’ll get some pitches to hit. Lux gets a start against a lefty.

    The lineup is looking deeeeeppppp! But, we are facing a lefty.

    1. Hopefully its a pattern by Roberts about Hernandez.

      Taylor has an OPS of 1386 when batting 5th.

      Glad to see Lux starting.

  12. Craig Kimbrel served up back to back pitch HR to lose another game. His 3rd blown save, and his ERA is now up to 6.53. He is now 0-4. The Cubs are just about out of it now. Looks like Brewers vs. Nats.

  13. I have a treat for you tomorrow.

    You won’t have to read my lunatic rants and raves.

    We have a new (old) blogger….

  14. I highly doubt Sadler makes the NLDS roster. No one cares about ERA.
    ~
    I said Smith with catch Ryu again this year

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