Dustin May not only showed that he should be on the playoff roster, but he also showed he probably should be the #4 starter in the rotation. Tony Gonsolin has experience in the bullpen while Dustin May does not. Both should be on the playoff rosters. Both should be lethal weapons on the playoff roster. My only concern is that May now has logged 133 innings through AA, AAA, and MLB. I would like to see them IL him or skip a couple of starts so that he “doesn’t hit the wall” late in the season.
With May in the Playoff Rotation, at least three starters are in the bullpen: Maeda, Gonsolin, and Urias. There are also Stripling and Hill, but with each passing day, both become less likely to pitch in the playoffs. Rich Hill, especially is a long-shot as he is not anywhere close. The playoff success of the Dodgers’ bullpen will depend upon how they can adapt to a relief role. Gonsolin has been a reliever in the past, so it should be easy for him and with his repertoire of pitches he could be devastating. Maeda has been lethal out of the pen in one or two-inning bursts and I think he will be all in just to get that Championship.
The only one I worry about is Young Julio (he’s still young) as he has always been a starter. His heart may be broken right now, but he needs to get over it and realize it is an opportunity of a lifetime. He’s a good kid and I am sure he will adapt. With Urias, Maeda, Gonsolin, Kelly, and Jansen, I like the Dodgers odds. Since the All-Star Break, the Dodgers have been sleep-walking, just going through the motions… and understandably so.
After tonight win by Clayton, they will be 40 games above .500 and almost 20 games ahead of Arizona. They have the most wins in baseball and are on the way to setting the All-Time Dodgers Franchise Record for Wins! Friedman and Roberts bashers are relegated to “Chicken Little Status.” This team is a juggernaut and Robert Van Socyoc had no small role in that, but the architect is Andrew Friedman. Dave Roberts is the General leading the troops and Charging to another World Series – this time on the Winning side!
The Dodgers bullpen is now tied with the Yankees (allegedly) legendary bullpen for #6 in MLB in Bullpen ERA at 3.96. I have told you all year that the bullpen would be OK and many of you have expended so much worry over nothing. Enjoy the ride. This team is deep and very special. They have been denied the Championship twice in a row. They know how hard it is to get there again, which is why they are galvanized to do it.
P.S. I don’t know how they can keep “Lock Down” Martin out of the bullpen!
Let’s Ride!
DC’s 10th Inning
SCORES:
DSL Dodgers Bautista 7 – SL Royals (1) 4
DSL Dodgers Shoemaker 17 – DSL Indians 7
AZL Dodgers Lasorda 7 – AZL Royals 8
AZL Dodgers Mota 5 – DSL White Sox1
Odgen Raptors 3 – Missoula Osprey (Arizona) 2
Great Lakes Loons – not scheduled
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 13 – Modesta Nuts (Seattle) 10
Tulsa Drillers 15 – Springfield Cardinals 5
OKC Dodgers 10 – Reno Aces (Arizona) 6
The Dodgers won 7-of- 8 minor league games and lost the 8th by one run. A pretty good day. Some were high scoring.
DSL:
Shoemaker’s Dodgers scored 17 runs. Bladimir De La Rosa and Nelson Quiroz , a pair of 17 year olds, each had 3 hits. Quiroz is another catcher.
Bautista’s Heisell Baro (17) pitched 4.1 innings of one-hit ball. Martin Santana (18) pitched three scoreless innings for his second consecutive strong outing.
AZL:
Lasorda’s Dodgers came up short on pitching and one run short at the plate. Jaime Perez and Eddys Leonard both had 3 hits. Of interest, Royal’s Bobby Witt Jr. (2nd overall) went 0-5 in the game and is hitting .250.
Mota’s Dodgers got a 5-inning, 2-hit performance by Julian Smith with 6 strikeouts. Marshall Kasowski made his second rehab appearance pitching 1.1 innings on one hit and two strikeouts. Ismael Alcantara had 2 of the Dodgers 8 hits.
Ogden Raptors:
Alfredo Tavarez pitched a season high 7 innings with one unearned run on 3 hits with no walks. Yeisel Cespedes, Mitchell Tyranski (12th – 2019) and Mark Mixon (26th – 2019) finished up with one run allowed by Cepedes. Mixon has been especially effective with one run allowed in 11 innings with the Raptors. Jorbit Vivas had 2 hits while Zac Ching chipped in with 3.
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes:
Five Quakes had multiple hit games – Morales, Kendall, Vargas, Heredia, Liput – with Rancho scoring 8 runs in the 7th and 8th innings to erase a 5-run deficit.
With a 10-5 deficit heading into the 7th, Jeren Kendall’s (15th) two-run homer in the bottom of the seventh highlighted yet another three-run frame for the Quakes.
In the bottom of the 8th the Quakes scored five more runs, including Miguel Vargas’ game-winning two-run single that made it 12-10. Rancho gave themselves some cushion when Hunter Feduccia drew an RBI walk, making it 13-10.
Brett de Geus (2-0) closed things out for Rancho in the top of the ninth, earning the win. The right-hander went a tidy 2.1 innings, not allowing a run and striking out four. De Geus is pitching really well.
Tulsa Drillers:
The Drillers followed the Quakes scoring 3 runs in the 7th and 6 in the 8th. There were 4 multiple -hit performances – Thomas, Mora Casey, Pederson. Relievers Ryan Moseley (3), Nolan Long (2) and Jordan Sheffield (1) combined for six innings allowing only one run by Sheffield.
OKC Dodgers:
The Dodgers continued the trend with 3 runs in the seventh and one in the 8th. DJ Peters, Connor Joe and Zach Reks each had 3 hits while Gavin Lux and Jedd Gyorko had 2. Jaime Schultz, Josh Sborz and Kevin Quackenbush pitched the final 4 innings allowing only one run by Sborz.
Wow, what a drubbing yesterday. They should have let Beaty get that inside the park homeeerrrrr!
May is really dirty. I hate how they say his ceiling is a number 2. What’s a guy got to do to have Ace ceiling? He’s only 21 and could fill out and add even more velo! It looks like he only needs the two pitches. His sinker/cutter combo is deadly!
Will Smith surpassed Bellinger with most homers through 23 games! WTF! How good is this guy? He looks elite with the glove digging balls out of the dirt that Yasmani would be playing off the backstop.
Pollock is starting to look like himself again, and NO HE IS NOT A PLATOON PLAYER!!!
I miss seeing Verdugo out there. Watch out when he comes back. Beaty is doing a nice job with the bat in his absence, but there’s no comparison with the glove, baserunning and overall energy.
It’s a good thing the Pirates held onto their closer so they don’t lose their grip on last place.
Do the Dodgers want to spend money on Hill and Ryu next year with the capability to have a rotation of Kershaw, Buehler, Urias, May, and Gonsolin backed up by Maeda and Stripling?
Smith is truly a Fresh Prince.
Lux and Seager could well be a 10 year middle infield.
The future is as fun to think about as is the present.
The playoff bullpen with the additions of Hill, Stripling, and Maeda will be fine and Urias should be fine there as well, especially with Doc basically committing to him in the rotation next year.
They will not spend any money on Hill, but I absolutely believe they will be at the front of the bidding line for Ryu’s services. Ryu wants to stay in LA. Boras knows that, but will try to stick it to the Dodgers for the biggest payday he can get. Teams are wise to Boras’ BS now and will not be Kevin Brown’d. I cannot see the Dodgers going past three years, but maybe they would go four if it was a deal breaker.
LAA should be the only other real threat (and they will be). While LA County has the largest Korean demographic in the US by a wide margin, Orange County is #2 with a very decent sized Korean demographic. Ryu did not hesitate to accept QO and I am sure that was all on him as that is not Boras’ way. I think the Dodgers will have a very good chance to re-sign Ryu if the request is reasonable. My guess is that their preference would be 3 years with club option. AF is not going 5 year $80MM as he did with KJ.
The funny thing is we have 2 post season rotations that are better than the Yankees.
For next year, what about Seager at 3B, Lux at SS, and Turner at 2B? Does that make sense? Muncy at 1B.
I think when middle infielders age they tend to move to the corners not the other way around. But with the shift, Turner winds up playing middle infield anyway.
Good morning Mark. Enjoyed your write-up. My pitcher playoff roster agrees with yours from yesterday. It is nice to see almost all the minor league teams had a victory yesterday including the big club. I almost felt sorry for Mattingly. I am happy Ryan Moseley is doing so well. I wonder if AC is still following him.
Of course I am still following Ryan Moseley. He picked up his 4th win at Tulsa last night with 2.0 scoreless innings. I still think his best opportunity will be as a middle reliever, and probably with another club. But I still believe he has a chance to make it to The Show.
Do you think Ryan will go to AAA next year or before?
I do not think he gets to AAA this year. Marshall Kasowski is about ready to come off the IL as is Joe Broussard. Broussard will go to OKC and someone will have to drop to Tulsa. Kasowski will go to Tulsa. IMO, Kasowski, Sheff, Nolan Long and Logan Salow will get the call to OKC before Ryan, and I do not see a place for any of them right now on the OKC roster. There is nothing wrong with Moseley staying at AA for the rest of the year to build upon that confidence. Pitching at the highest levels of MiLB is the hardest to forecast because of the number of organizational pitchers the Dodgers carry at OKC and Tulsa.
Ok. Thanks for the info AC.
I have no argument with May as the #4 starter in the playoffs, with Maeda going to the pen. But I am not convinced that that’s the way it has to go. Despite his lack of experience in the pen, I see no reason why the Dodgers can’t give it a try.
1. May’s innings can limited in several ways.
A.) Skip a start or two.
B.) Give him a little extra rest between starts.
C.) Put him in the pen.
May may (like Mark said, see what I did there?) prove to be lights out in the pen. No way to know unless the Dodgers put him there for a while.
With a deeper pen (13 pitchers in the post-season), Maeda is perfectly acceptable in the rotation, and he would be available in the pen after that.
My point is that nothing is written in stone, and that there are alternatives that should be considered.
Mark, how can you consider May as your fourth starter in the playoffs? He gave up a run yesterday! Unacceptable for one of our starters!
Everyone is so hot to see the rookie May in the playoffs. Sure, we all like him and we know he is the future, but what pitcher hasn’t had to pay his dues at the beginning of his MLB career? Most do not step into the playoffs and start pitching like an ace. He’s got all next season to iron out whatever needs ironing and I’m sure there is stuff there that many of us are overlooking. Add on the extra pressure that the post season brings and we are asking a lot to be put on the shoulders of May. He might come through with flying colors but it’s still a 50-50 gamble. They are still going slowly with Urias and this seems to be the way the FO operates. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go with Maeda if he continues to pitch like he did his last outing. But, then again, we’ve got a new arm to show off, Russell Martin! How about that for a secret weapon.
I’m kind of with Brooklyn and Jeff. It’s fun to say “wow May dominated crap Miami, let him start in Game 4”. Well, what if Game 4 is in Atlanta and we’re down 2-1 in the Series and it’s a must win to bring it back to LA. Can the 21 year old handle that? Who knows the answer.
I do hope we try him out of the pen as well. Let’s see how that stuff plays out in an inning or 2. Can he harness that control in a 3-2 game in the 6th, and give us a clean 6th and 7th? We don’t know. Can he come in a 3-2 game in the 6th with a guy on 2nd and 1 out? Or is he better suited to start his own inning? I”m much confident that Gonsolin could do that, only because he’s relieved before. I’d love for May to get that experience too, and then we make a sound judgement on how to best utilize everyone come October.
Lucky for us we have a Magic Number of 23 on August 14, so we can try all these things out! For the record, I love May’s stuff, and I”m salivating at a 2020 rotation of the kids Buehler Urias May and the vets Kersh and Ryu.
By the way, great little story on espn.com about LA/Hou/NYY:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/27379182/astros-dodgers-yankees-debate-which-baseball-best-now-october
Interesting snippet from it: “I’ll go with a very specific angle here: In October, the percentage of pitches faster than 95 mph just about doubles (better pitching staffs, more innings going to the best pitchers on the staff, more innings thrown in relief). The Dodgers are hitting .305/.398/.563 against such pitches, the best slash line in baseball. They have the second-best contact rate on those pitches, and they have the lowest chase rate. The Astros have a good contact rate but so-so chase rate and terrible slash line, and the Yankees have a great slash line but a so-so contact rate and terrible chase rate.”
1 more link. This time a great story from Verducci/CNN on Walker Buehler:
https://www.si.com/mlb/2019/08/13/walker-buehler-los-angeles-dodgers-sandy-koufax?utm_source=twitter.com&xid=socialflow_twitter_si&utm_campaign=sinow&utm_medium=social
Great read!
Doesn’t the new rule that will limit position player’s ability to pitch come into play next year. We will have to call it the Russel Martin rule and may make him irrelevant. Otherwise he may be a big part of the pen in the coming years 🙂
May has been sensational and Gonsolin also, but remember we have a small sample size and while potential is high, let’s let them prove themselves over time.
The Dodgers could go with 3 catchers if Martin were used in relief more often–more often as in taking one of the spots in the relief pool. Can’t go swimming in a relief pool anyway. Well, maybe if you have a mind to.
It is a strange day for when I agree with Jeff, but I do today. Dustin May looked good, but I am not ready to pen him with the next Don Drysdale label (or even Noah Syndergaard). IT WAS THE MARLINS!!!!! The team that is tied for dead last in runs scored with Detroit, 55 runs behind #28 CWS. The Marlins are #27 in BA, #29 in OBP, #30 in SLG, and #30 in OPS. That is certainly not comparable to NYY or Houston or Minnesota. Their pitching is not too bad (last night not withstanding), but their offense is less than pathetic.
The two previous teams he faced were not all that much of an offensive threat either:
Cardinals – #25 BA and #24 OPS; Padres – #21 BA and #21 OPS.
If it were Atlanta, Cubs, and Milwaukee, then we might have a better understanding. He is 21 and a rotation spot for 2020 should be his to lose. But to say he is ready for the #4 rotation in the 2019 playoffs because he shut down the mighty Marlins is a tad optimistic. I hope he does grab that opportunity and does not let go, but I would call that my Plan B. I do not have nearly enough information to know where AF and staff are leaning, but I am comfortable with believing that May right now is not that #4 guy in their mind. He might get there, but he is not there yet.
I do not put a lot of stock into what Doc says about where Hill or Strip are in their rehab. Like others have said, the one area that I least like about Doc is his inability to give the truth about where the injured players are. If you don’t know, say so, but don’t make s___ up. If they are back by the first week in September, that will give them 4-5 potential starts in September to lengthen out.
Wow AC don’t see you get this riled up! If Gonzo and May continue to perform do you even see a place for Stripling. And I’m not so sure about Hill out of the pen. He has historically had some troubles in his first innings and getting control of his curve
Always loved this quote: Smartest pitch in baseball is the 2nd knockdown pitch. It lets everyone know the 1st one was no-mistake . Don Drysdale.
And, a pitcher must find out if a hitter is timid, and if he is timid, to remind him that he is timid. Drysdale had some great quotes.
Yes, SoCalBum, and did he not have one about pitches wasted to walk someone intentionally?
I think hitters dug in against Koufax and still couldn’t hit him whereas they didn’t dig in against Drysdale. That is what made Koufax even more amazing.
The movement on May’s stuff is undeniable. Ideally he steps up into the #4 spot if Hill can’t go. The Marlins are the Marlins though and basically he plowed through a minor league lineup without have his good stuff and command. The outing vs the Cardinals was more impressive to me. He did land a curve ball or two early and then just lost it. We’ve yet to see him with 3 pitches truly working which shows how much better he can be even. i kind of hope he doesn’t face Atlanta. I think it works to the Dodgers advantage if their playoff opponents don’t see him during the regular season. When I watch him pitch, it seems like the first time through the order the opponent can believe how much movement their is on his pitches.
Mostly reiterating what’s been said here. I very often agree with 59 especially his comments today.
* May is dirty. He’s capable of doing the Greg Maddux. Aim for the middle and let that movement take the pitch to the corners. His backdoor runner to righties is unhittable too. And then he has the horsepower to over match hitters at the top go the zone. Impressive stuff.
* I don’t know what May’s role will be down the stretch but he is a way fun to watch and a valuable tool. I like him as a starter.
* I’m certainly not looking past this year (or dissing Kershaw and Ryu) but looking to the future, how does May (21), Gonsolin (25), Urias (23)and Buehler (25) look as a starting rotation someday? (not in that order) It would sure be nice if that group stayed healthy and stayed together for a few years.
* We haven’t had many high leverage situations lately but I would like to see Kelly face more hitters. Facing 1 or 2 hitters behind Fergy won’t keep him sharp. Again I think he is a key in the pen. Let him start and finish a clean inning.
* Same with Kenley actually. Rest is nice and gives us the luxury of seeing the “on the bubble” guys but the high leverage back end guys (Baez, Kelly and KJ) need to work too. Yeah I know…..there’s plenty of time.
* Bellinger seems to be getting a steady diet of up and in fastballs again. I’m sure he will be fine but that is certainly where teams think he can be handled.
* Not to get ahead of myself here but I love Will Smith’s swing. I just don’t see him being a .215 – .230 hitter as was speculated last week. Nomar was talking last night about the improvements he has made resulting in more contact and power. He will have ordinary struggles and adjustments but I love his swing and think it will hold up. Yeah, I know it’s early, but I like what I see.
* I’m no prude. I know all the words BUT I wish players (Pederson, Muncy) would just stop yelling F**k at the top of their lungs when they pop up. It is especially pronounced in vacant stadiums like Miami. I don’t like it. Never have. Go up the tunnel.
Hope we keep racking. Atlanta should be fun this week end. I think it was “interesting” for Doc to put CK and Buehler back a day thus avoiding giving the Braves too many looks at them. Doc claimed otherwise but it seems wise to me.
Story between Dodgers vs Yankees
https://www.dodgersnation.com/the-dodgers-and-the-yankees-are-on-a-collision-course/2019/08/14/
I just checked team relief pitching stats and I go by OPS against stats. In all of baseball the Dodgers are pretty much tied for 4th with Tampa.
St. Louis .664
San Francisco .684
Houston .688
Tampa .700
Dodgers .701
Pretty good I would say.
Dodgers have the 2nd highest percentage of inherited runners scoring in MLB (40%)! Only Nationals worse at 41%. They are right behind the Orioles at 39%. Per Baseball Reference.co, league average is 32%. Best is Arizona at 21%.
40% IRS will not get it done in the post-season.
I wonder what happens if you remove the first two months of the season when the Dodger bullpen was beyond horrible? Or what if you look at the last 60 days?
I see your point, but the Dodgers relievers have the 3rd best WHIP in baseball at 1.22. So the Dodger relievers don’t put a lot of guys on base compared to the rest of the teams but to your point they don’t strand those guys, they tend to allow those runners to score.
I mentioned this yesterday, but I thought it was intentional to put Kelly in the position of having an inherited runner on third when he came into the game. Someone is going to have to do that and Kelly didn’t disappoint yesterday.
With so many starters targeted for the pen, I think it’s important to identify who needs a clean inning and who can be trusted to come in with runners on. Urias has been a clean inning guy all year.
Speaking of Urias, when are we going to see him go back to back?
We need to see Urias start going back to back and see him with inherited runners.
Baez has the biggest sample size with inherited runners and has a 33% rate
Jansen 33% rate.
Kelly 36% rate.
Those are the 3 best.
I doubt he will do that until the playoffs.
That is the most important metric for a reliever.
I do think the Dodgers will try to resign Ryu. He likes the Dodgers.
If May has too many innings, they can send him down and not pitch for 10 days. Then they can bring Gonsolin up to start two games.
It certainly is fun to look at what we have now and what we have in the minors. Guys like Beaty, Garlick and Rios, who I thought were career minor leaguers, certainly have value. Smith has a good stroke. It is short and compact. Reminds me of Utley.
Some interesting articles out today. I enjoyed the two links Bobby posted. Here’s another article revisiting the Dodgers trade talks with Miami wrt JT Realmuto. https://www.dodgersnation.com/revisiting-the-dodgers-price-tag-for-jt-realmuto-from-miami/2019/08/13/?fbclid=IwAR1Sb2P6ClAkIBnKh4WKbgUQjI5qWfyVJ0ciafINqmjrXxbL1JJaMHTQ2cU
John Heyman tweeted in Feb of this year what the Marlins wanted for JT Realmuto:
A: Bellinger + 1 of (Verdugo/Puig) + prospects
or
B: Lux + May + 1 of (K.Ruiz/W.Smith)
As the season progresses, the Marlins’ demands look increasingly unreasonable. The Dodgers were right to walk away. Realmuto’s 2019 slash is currently: .275/.328/.461
The Phillies traded away: Sixto Sanchez + Alfaro + W.Stewart
Sanchez is ranked #25 on MLB’s top 100 prospects. For reference: Lux (#10), May (#34). W.Smith is ranked #56. Alfaro is no longer ranked as a prospect, but he was ranked #62 back in 2017. Alfaro’s current slash is .254/.292/.397.
Others on this blog have challenged the notion that the Marlins were being unreasonable when dealing with the Dodgers. One response was that we (as Dodger fans) tend to overvalue our own prospects and that other teams will be more objective when evaluating the Dodger minor league talent. Another poster claimed that the Marlins demands were merely wild internet rumors.
As we learn more about these trade discussions, it’s not only apparent this was a terrible trade for the Dodgers but that the Marlins were willing to settle for much less from the Phillies. There is a definitely “success tax” placed on the Dodgers when attempting to trade with other teams.
I would have laughed at the Marlins request prior to this season especially with the surplus of catchers in the system.
Realmuto is soooo yesterday.
“The reports of my demise are greatly exaggerated.”—-CK
Rio’s reminds me of Franklin Stubbs
It is just the Marlins.
But really amazing player drafting and development. Especially when you consider the drafting and Int’l signing restrictions and hinderances.
Rios has some serious pop in his bat! It is just the Marlins, but for Rios family and friends in attendance tonight is a memory they won’t soon forget. Very happy for the young man.
Yimi Garcia would be the one to give up a HR. That’s 13 allowed this season.
Well we always say we want consistency from our players Rick!
Think how good the Dodgers bullpen will be in the playoffs without him.
Just don’t give up on him. He might be lights out next year.
He ties Josh Hader
CK is 70 K’s behind the big D for second all-time in Dodgers history. It’s going to be close by season’s end.