Max “Freaking” Muncy & The Bullpen Again

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1. I blame last night’s loss on the bullpen. One way or another it’s the bullpen. This time it was the one located on the playing field just barely is foul territory. Maybe Taylor should have taken a glance at it instead of riveting his eyes on the pop foul but it shouldn’t have been there. Taylor made a wide throw to home that might have been on time if it were closer to the plate.

   I think it is time to make Taylor and Hernandez bench depth and not give them as many starts. I’m okay with Muncy at second and Freese at first full time.

   Verdugo is slumping. Maybe the League has figured him out or maybe his back is the problem. In either case, he has better stats against lefties and maybe he is the one to platoon with Joc when Pollock returns. Joc might play some first base next year but for this year it seems that Bellinger should get some play there and Verdugo some play in RF when Pollock returns.

   1. Bellinger getting pull happy and he’s missing fast balls in the zone. Coming back to earth! Fortunately Seager and Turner heating up

2. Can Pollock play first base?

3. Mark, you are right on with muncy. Make him our second baseman. I just don’t know what we do about 3rd when turner needs rest. I don’t think muncy is the answer there but is the only answer right now. Call Rios up and platoon him with freeze at first. Rios is starting to hit and we need to see what we have. As you say it is a long season and I see Colorado closing the gap the way they are playing and the Dodgers unable to beat the pitiful giants. Bellinger has cooled which was expected but others need to step up. Turner has turned into a singles hitter who is aging with his window closing. Seager needs to get red hot with kike and Taylor do something if they continue to play. Verdugo is experiencing what all players do and that is an adjustment period and maybe the back is a factor. Pollock needs to get back and quit swinging at sliders a foot outside. Starting pitching stellar bullpen terrible.

   In Arizona doc did his frustrating moves. Maeda pitched 5 innings 70 pitches and was shocked to be taken out. Why does he do this stuff? Things could have turned out worse or better but it is an example of him taking his foot off the pedal. I’m starting to think maybe his use of the bullpen is flawed. Why not just use urias and stripling as 8 th inning guys until Kelly can get out of his funk. Baez can be used in the 7 th, while using floro, Garcia, alexander in the 5th and sixth with an occasional matchup in the 7 th. When he is ready bring Ferguson back as the 7th inning lefty and match up as needed. When he is ready physically I would bring Gonsolin up and see what we have if they are considering him. When doc brought in Alexander against the dbacks he might as well just forfeited. Why not walk the bases loaded? I know we are past that but I had to say it. He should consider reassigning bullpen roles.

4. Too many times we look for a reason for a loss. Sometimes it is clear, and sometimes it is what it is…a team loss. This was not on Kersh, not on the bullpen, not on the lousy field design, not on Freese and Corey striking out with the bases loaded in the first, not on the throw home by CT3. Last night the Dodgers just lost. Last night SF was just better than LAD. Earlier the Dodgers scored 4 in the 9th off of arguably one of the best closers in baseball. Baseball is a funny game.

   I would like to think the Dodgers will come back and win the next two, but the Giants play above their heads against the Dodgers, and the Dodgers seem to take their foot off the gas against the Giants. Over a 162 game season, the Dodgers should be 30+ games ahead of the Giants. It is just head to head where there seems to be issues, and yes, I agree those do hurt. But last night was not one of those nights for me. It was a loss.

   Nobody has ever suggested that Houston has a better starting rotation than does LAD. That would be absurd, yes even moronic to make such a suggestion. The suggestion was that Houston has bullpen problems like the Dodgers. No they do not. Mark may be onto something about the Houston approach vs. LA approach. Houston looks for high spin rates, while LAD looks for power arms. Maybe Houston would be a better team for someone like Alexander or Shaggy. Maybe it is time for Honey to retire, but is Mark Prior the right replacement? Maybe it is going to take a new approach from what the bullpen philosophy has been. The team seems to be taking a different approach with drafting of multiple relief arms. Maybe that is the approach.

   Maybe they should get away from trying to have a bullpen of pitchers that can go multiple innings. When Maeda makes the move to the bullpen (as he inevitably will), without a mid-season trade or an injury, the playoff bullpen would include Maeda, Urias, and Strip. If Ferguson outpitches Alexander down the stretch, that would be half of the playoff bullpen would be “starters”. I agree they are all good pitchers, but they are starters who are not used to warming up quickly and letting it go for 15 pitches. One season in the pen does not make them relievers. One like that okay, maybe two. But not four.

   I do not expect AF to go out and get a Brad Hand, or Felipe Vazquez, or Jose Leclerc or Taylor Rogers, or Shane Greene, or Will Smith, or Ken Giles, or Sean Doolittle (yes Mark I know he has had a rough go for a bit). And Bums, Diaz has as much of a chance of coming to LA that Haniger does. NONE. I think therealten was onto something when he suggested that AF will probably go to Detroit but want Matt Moore and not Shane Greene. Greene would cost DJ Peters/Gerardo Carrillo type package while Moore would be a Justin Hagenman type package. That is what AF looks for. That lightning in a bottle from an unexpected source that will not cost much. It works for a 162 game season, but has not yet worked for the Championship. Maybe this year.

   1. My desire for Diaz and Hanigar is an attempt to say go big or go in-house.

   2. WORD!

5. Molly Knight has an amazing piece on trades the Dodgers didn’t make and why in The Athletic:

   https://theathletic.com/1016845/2019/06/07/the-trades-the-dodgers-didnt-make-to-have-their-patience-with-prospects-rewarded/?source=weeklyemail

   It answers lots of questions.

   1. Lovely piece. But I’m surprised Knight only went with published rumors.

      She’s very well-connected and could probably add more…

6. Max ‘Freaking’ Muncy…Music to my ears! I have been beating the drum for him or at least saying you don’t sell high on his production and cost you keep it and play it. The league adjusted to him and now he is adjusting himself. He is being fed a steady diet of breaking balls and he has to take more and go the other way more than last year. He can still hit a major league fastball and his glove plays all over. I’m glad they kept him and glad that he has earned playing time.

   This team is so brittle that Pollock returning will actually be good for the team, keeping everyone fresher. I’m not worried about Beaty, or Garlic or Rios getting PT, they are all probably 4A players at best but of the 3 Rios has the most upside until Pollock comes back. JT, Joc and Cory should sit some and Alex has signs the league is adjusting to him too. He can hit anyone’s heat so they are going with more offspeed. He lays off most breaking pitches out of the zone but is out in front on every change up making a lot of weak contact. Kike and CT3 have been playing a bit too much to counter LHP and Pollock helps that. So does Freese and he accepts his part time role.

   The lineup and rotation are fine, and about that bullpen…now is the time to see what they have internally and then add a piece or two if needed. Most on here think a big piece is needed and I agree. For sure they could use a loogie and it would be nice to have a guy like Giles to set up Jansen. I trust the process and they have a big lead. They also have an upcoming stretch of 18 games without a day off that will test this rotation of guys who all need an extra day between starts sometimes, so Doc needed to stretch Urias and Stripling out a bit for a bullpen game. Alexander, Floro and Garcia are the replaceable parts and only Garcia can’t be sent down. One way or another help is on the way.

   1. I think the days of JP Howell, Joe Beimel, Randy Choate, Javier Lopez and Jesse Orozco and Dan Plesac before them may be over. I like to study relievers, but I do not know who that is today. I think Cingrani might have been that guy, but we will never know.

      I agree on getting Urias and Strip innings on Wednesday (06-05). Strip last pitched on May 31 and Urias on June 1. I think that was planned. I do not think that Maeda was tiring. It was more that they needed to get Urias more work, and as it turned out Strip. Unfortunately the two relief only pitchers could not get the job done.

7. Dodgers should let Max play 2nd full time . At least until he proves he can’t get it done defensively. He may rise up to the challenge. And he does make some good plays on defense. Offensively he’s proven (at least to me) he’s the real deal. Maybe let him play 1st vs rights and 2nd vs lefts.

   1. Belli way too good a right fielder to waste at 1st base. Besides the dodgers scared he’ll dive and hurt his shoulder again.

      1. Bellinger will see very little time at 1B.

   2. That’s pretty much what they are doing.

8. At the beginning of the year, Muncy stated that 2nd base was his favorite position, and that he thought he played 2nd better than other positions. So certainly, he is invested into playing 2nd.

   AC – – I’m a little confused about the distinction between the Astro and Dodger bullpens. You stated that the Astros focus on “high spin rates” and the Dodgers on “power arms.” What do you mean by that? My purely visual observation is that the Dodgers lack power arms in the pen. Excepting Kelly, other than, occasionally, Ferguson and Urias reaching 96, I don’t see the pen having the power arms. It appears that most of them are spin rate pitchers, or they live high in the zone. It appears that most of the other teams(only based on what I see on TV) have relievers that live in the 96-98 mph zone. How do you distinguish between the two pens? By the way, I’m not asking this to be critical, only to learn. Thanks

   1. Agree, I’ve read numerous outlets that say the one of the key metrics the Dodgers use to evaluate pitchers is indeed Spin Rate.

      I mean Rich Hill? Joe Kelly! Kenley’s much bally-hood infatuation.

      What I have also read is that Houston is much more dogmatic about pitch selection and repertoire than perhaps any other team in the ML.

   2. The Astros look at guys with high spin rates like Ryan Pressly and know what to do with them. The Dodgers wanted John Axford because he was a power arm. Mark is probably correct that the Astros know what to do with high spin rates and perhaps the Dodgers do not. The Dodgers loved Josh Fields and Chris Hatcher, both who were considered power pitchers. Look how long it took for Baez to get that secondary pitch and now Jansen. Both of these guys were power pitchers but needed that secondary pitch with greater spin to show with the power. Jansen was different than Baez in that his cutter was both a power pitch with a lot of spin and late movement. He has lost that velo to some degree and needs that secondary pitch.

      I believe the Dodgers recognize that spin rates may be a factor and are trying to change from power pitching to more spin. Joe Kelly is a power pitcher and the Dodgers are trying to change that. Why? I do not know. But so far they have not been successful with that transformation.

      Scott Alexander who has to rely on movement (which requires spin), is not producing that this year. His sinker is at 92.8 mph with a spin rate of 2,271, vs MLB average of 2,131. When it isn’t spinning and does not sink, that pitch looks like a beach ball to a MLB pitcher. For comparison, Pressly throws 95.7 with a 2,589 spin rate with a 2,285 MLB Average for his pitch. Floro is a lot like Alexander in that he needs movement, and does not always have it. His spin rate is slightly better than MLB average. When the ball flattens, it leaves the yard. Yimi is transforming from a power pitcher to one with more spin, and while he is getting more spin, he is still learning and cannot always command it.

      After reading what Mark wrote about Houston’s bullpen and perhaps their staff’s ability to develop them better, I started to look into it a bit. Ken Giles is a power pitcher with not a lot of spin and he did not do well in Houston. Pressly throws hard but has a lot of spin. Roberto Osuna the same. Will Harris has good spin. Rondon seems to be the anomaly with very little spin. The Astros seem to know what to do with high spin pitchers, the Dodgers not so much.

      I think again Mark is correct that the Dodgers may be trying to transform relief pitchers but may not be able to. Mark Prior was a power pitcher. Maybe Ken Giles can be the answer and just let him pitch the way he can. The same with Joe Kelly.

      It is just an observation and not something that I have thoroughly studied. But I wanted to test Mark’s hypothesis and I think there is merit because of the Astros apparent ability to work with higher spin relievers and the Dodgers not being able to (at least not yet). If you know how to work with power pitchers get power pitchers. If you want spin pitchers get pitchers who already have a lot of spin (like Pressly) and do not try to transform during the season. Again just an observation, not studied.

      1. I am still trying to figure out how you knew about Pressly?

         1. I am not saying.

            1. Lottery numbers please!

      2. Right now, pitting the Astros against this Dodger Team I think you will see the same result in the World Series as we saw 2 years ago. Other than Bellinger who has significantly improved his approach, the team will be dominated by Houston Starting Pitching and if their manager is smart, the starters will pitch 9 inning games.
         Just an observation, not studied also.

      3. I’m not sure about the differention between power and spin rate. Kelly has been a high spin rate guy before he was signed, the Dodgers are not trying to change him. Chris Hatcher has always had a very high spin rate, it seems power pitchers often do. Brandon Morrow. Yimi Garcia, I have learned, has the 23rd highest spin rate in baseball.

         Yu Darvish.

         1. Joe Kelly 4 seamer spin rate 2019 – 2,171 — MLB Average 2019 – 2,285. Doesn’t seem to be a high spin rate this year.

            The Dodgers are trying to change him. He is throwing a lot less fastballs and a lot more knuckle curves.

            I would like to see what Chris Hatcher’s spin rate was for 2016. As I recall, his fastball really flattened out at the top of the zone and became very hittable, which would indicate less spin.

            Yimi Garcia does have high spin rate with his 4 seamer. But why is he throwing his fastball a lot less this year?

            As I said, I have not put a lot of research into this. I was simply looking at Mark’s hypothesis about relievers getting to Houston and succeeding. He may be right that Pressly would not have been as successful with the Dodgers.

            1. I think your questioning of pitch selection is right on.

               One thing I think that does differentiate the Astros from other teams is how their analytics drive pitch selection:

               “A closer look at the Astros’ pitch usage backs up Morton’s assertion: There’s no obvious, overarching trend, rather a series of individual adjustments that seem to pay immediate dividends. Verlander throws more low fastballs than he did with the Tigers, and has largely scrapped his changeup. Cole throws more high fastballs than he did with the Pirates, and has moved away from his sinker. Roberto Osuna throws fewer sliders. Morton and Pressly throw more curveballs. On and on like that.”

               From here:
               https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/10/13/how-justin-verlander-became-better-pitcher-astros/1628624002/

9. Wow, lot’s of good stuff today. Everyone has different positions on many of the players here. Here’s my predictions for the second half barring injury or blockbuster…

   AJ Pollock will be the full time Center Fielder
   Bellinger will return to 1st base (Right Field against left handed pitching)
   Verdugo will play RF (LF against left handed pitching)
   Joc / Kike / Taylor will play LF with Joc getting most of the playing time because of right-handed pitchers
   Muncy will play most of the time at second base (Doc will use Kike and Taylor here against lefties more than he needs to in order to keep them “relevant”
   Turner at 3rd, Seager at SS of course
   Marnes will do most of the catching, but there will be DL stints where Will Smith will be riding the shuttle, but he won’t take over full time until next year.

   We will not get a right handed bat at the deadline (mostly because there isn’t one that will be available who is a better option than we already have)
   We will get a proven reliever that has experience saving games
   We will get a left handed reliever so Doc can use him as a loogy

   Urias will get more starts than Maeda after the All-Star Break
   The Post Season starting rotation will be Kershaw, Bueller, Ryu and Urias

   Best Lineup vs RHP
   Joc LF
   Seager SS
   Turner 3B
   Bellinger 1B
   Muncy 2B
   Pollock CF
   Verdugo RF
   Marnes C

   Best Lineup vs LHP
   Pollock CF
   Seager SS
   Turner 3B
   Bellinger RF
   Freese 1B
   Muncy 2B
   Verdugo LF
   Marnes C

   Somehow, Doc will screw it up and give too much playing time to CT3 and Kike especially against left handed pitchers. But overall, the writing is on the wall and they will have more bench time as the season progresses.

   1. I don’t see AJ coming back as a big positive as you do. The team has been scoring runs by the handful since he has been out. He was nothing special when he was in there, why would that change now??

      1. Why would that change? That’s been covered by so many people at the beginning of the season.

         There’s 2 big things about Pollock. He hits off elite pitchers very well, and his WAR rate (the pace in which he accumulates WAR) is amongst the highest in baseball. He’s very good when healthy. If he’s healthy, he should be better much than what we’ve seen so far. Or, like so many do, he can turn into Adrew Jones, or Logan Forsythe.

         1. I think he was Logan F. before he got injured as usual.

   2. P.S. Regarding Will Smith. Sometimes a rookie comes up and plays spectacular and helps a team to the playoffs. Unfortunately we probably will not get a chance to see if Smith is that guy as the team will stick with the standard rule of play.

   3. Batting first, CT3’s stats for his career:

      .280 BA/.357 OB%/.847 OPS

      Joc Pederson’s career stats leading off:

      .239 BA/.331 OB%/.855 OPS

      AJ Pollock’s career stats leading off:

      .281 BA/.341 OB%/.798 OPS

      Kike Hernandez’ career stats leading off:

      .248 BA/.302 OB%/.784 OPS

      Draw your own conclusions, but I would have CT3 leading off.

      1. Weirdly, CT3 only 25 PA’s batting first this year. I’m not saying who I want, I’m just predicting how I think it’ll play out.

         We see how they treated Logan Forsythe and I expect the same treatment for AJ. Doc will give the veteran free agent signee a long leash. He’s OPS’ed over 800 4 years and over 850 twice. He was brought in, right or wrong, to bring balance to the lineup. It’s a very bad look to future free agents if you cut bait on him so soon. Pretty much the same reason we see so much of Kelly.

10. It’s incredible, the team loses a game and they want to change half line up, the bullpen fails and they want to change everyone, lately the starters have not failed but when they happen it will be the same, they will say things like put urias or stripling. The good thing that nobody works in putting together or building the team, we were going to need 150 players, because every time a game is lost they want to remove players, it’s baseball !!

    1. So, I have to ask… where did Horse Dodger come from?

       1. Hermosillo, Mexico

       2. Chad Moriyama : “The Dodgers were on the verge of selling every player for prospects after losing … *Checks Notes* … two games in a row. Thankfully, they rebounded from that horrific tailspin with a 7-2 victory over the rival Giants today.”

11. when looking at relievers, one of the stats I always look at is the number of runners on base vs the innings pitched. So, if a pitcher pitches 40 innings, allows 22 hits and 10 walks and close to a strike out per inning, without looking at more, to me that is a successful relief pitcher. I know that I should also take into consideration the situations in which a pitcher has pitched, the inherited runners allowed to score and the like, but my starting point is runners vs innings. So applying that to pitchers that might be available by trade, Shane Green strikes me as successful, 25 innings, 21 base runners allowed and 28 strikeouts. Giles is also on the positive side: 25 innings, 26 base runners, offset by 42 strikeouts. By contrast, Mychael Givens has 27 innings, 36 base runners, and 38 strikeouts. Juan LeCleric innings, 35 base runners and 42 strikeouts. Obviously this is not scientific, and there are probably as many arguments against this as there are posters on this blog. It’s just something I look at.

12. Dodgers throwing Joe Kelly Bobble head night ??? Is this a joke . Why??? just because he has a big contract. Send this guy to AAA instead of throwing him a Bobble Head night. Dodgers should produce their own players instead of trading or signing mediocre nervous relievers like Alexander and Kelly, etc. Why not throw Petey a Bobble head night or others more deserving !!!! Trade him back to the Red Sox !!!!

    1. And a great day to you as well Carlos.

    2. I don’t think the Red Sox want him back Carlos. As long as he is on the Dodgers, he won’t be pitching against us in the WS, so that is a good thing. I guess.

13. Dodgers lineup today has Hernandez hitting against a right handed pitcher with an OPS of 597 vs right handers.
    Meanwhile Freese has an OPS of 1060 against right handed pitchers.
    Just another head scratcher.

14. Reverting back to the Dodgers of 18! Enough already with Hernandez against righties. SIT HIM DOWN,

    1. But they won… so what the heck?

15. The really good Richie Justice suggest Brad Hand for the Dodgers:

    https://www.mlb.com/news/7-baseball-trades-that-make-sense

    1. I read that a couple of days ago. I have no opinion one way or the other on Richard Justice. He appears very knowledgeable, and he certainly has far better sources than anyone here. But in my simple opinion, his trade return for Brad Hand is awfully light. I see no way AF trades Diego Cartaya. If there is a catcher involved I think it would be Connor Wong, and i am not sure Cleveland would have any interest.

       Baseball front office people are not working in a vacuum. They know that Jeren Kendall is .5 years older than the average California League player and is batting .190/.333/.348/.682 with 2 HRs in 108 PA. He has also struck out 36.11% of his plate appearances in A+ ball. DJ Peters is spending his second year in AA and is not having as productive of a year as he had last year. Last year he batted .236/.320/.473/.793. He led the league in HRs (29) and strikeouts (192 – 34.34%). This year he is batting .239/.320/.416/.736 with only 8 HRs. He is also striking out at a greater rate than last year 34.96%.

       Simple question…if you were the Cleveland GM would you trade Brad Hand and two years of team control for Jeren Kendall and DJ Peters and another lottery pick? They wanted Verdugo before. I do not see them backing away from that.

       1. I think Richard is smoking something that may be legal…

16. Mark, not even you can defend Kiki playing against righties. He is NOT a full,time player!

    1. But we won. Let it go…

    2. Kike can be on my team anytime and I won’t defend him. Great utility player and teammate. There are intangibles that none of us see but the clubhouse. Quit whining. Pick on Bellinger who is in a major slump! lol

17. What kind of moron walks Belli to face the best hitter on the dodgers .

    1. In case you haven’t noticed, Bellinger is the best hitter on the Dodgers. Does that really need an explanation?

18. Today I saw a batter bunt for a single against the Shift. I forget his name and team, but it was so easy to get a base hit for him by just laying down a crap bunt against the exaggerated shift, I don’t know why others are not doing it more. The announcers said that he was a power hitter and giving up his chance at a HR. I say, if they shift, bunt.

19. Nice win today, they battled. 3 IBB to Cody lead to 4 RBI’s from Cory. He should be in the 5 hole against RHP and Freese against LHP from now on behind Cody.

    The much maligned bullpen comes through with 4 scoreless and 6 K’s-3 by Wild Man Kelly who had a wild pitch on one of his K’s. For tonight he looked like a set up man, his stuff was filthy. Garcia looked good too, lots of movement.

20. Damn, Machine Gun Kelly strikes out the side. Once again, don’t string up Doc for trotting out Kelly again and again, and yet again. Doc is trying to see what Kelly has in the tank, and mark my words and I will supply the ketchup to eat some crow for all you haters that think Pollock is a bad signing. Roberts will keep throwing his ass in the lineup when AJ comes back, to see what he has. Like Kelly, Freidman signed both of these guys for October, not April and May. Sticking to my gut, both Pollock and Kelly will be huge come play-off time. Rag on them all you want right now, but these two are part of the puzzle pieces.

    1. I was looking forward to seeing Kelly come out. I was surprised he didn’t pitch the 9th! I could see his change in pitch selection. He left little that was hittable and up in the zone. Almost all his pitches were in the lower part of the zone. Maybe the light has gone on for him. Also, he was not throwing heat! But, I’ll refrain from making any predictions except the one I’m currently making this month. THE DODGERS DON’T NEED TO ADD ANYONE except to satisfy the FO’s love of tinkering with leftovers.

       The one thing I missed about today’s game was Kruk & Kuip. There was no broadcast available for me to watch. Joe Davis highlighted that team as legendary and future Hall of Famers.

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