So, this is not meant to be contentious, but rather, an exchange of ideas. Yesterday, AC said this:
“I absolutely agree with Mark that AF will not overpay for anyone. Where Mark and I disagree, is that I believe that to AF it is especially true with relievers.”
Ummm, Jeff, I mean… AC, I agree. 100%. I totally agree that it is especially true with relievers. However, where we may disagree is whether that is a strength or a weakness. What if Andrew Friedman had signed Adam Ottavino and Craig Kimbrel over the winter, instead of Joe Kelly, AJ Pollock and Hyun-jin Ryu? Would they be a better team? Ponder that?
Maybe they would have been. Hindsight is 20/20, but Pollock has not done anything and Joe Kelly has been an arsonist. However, where would they be without Hyun-jin Ryu? In retrospect, they should have signed Ryu and Ottavino. Ottavino has a 1.27 ERA this year and a 1.23 WHIP. He’s been good, but his WHIP shows he’s probably been lucky too. Ottavino has been good two years in a row, but the year before that, he had a 5.06 ERA. With bullpen pieces, it’s a bit of a crapshoot.
In 2018, Craig Kimbrel had a 1.77 ERA the first half of the season and a 4.57 ERA the second half. That second half and his post-season problems cost him millions. Here are Kimbrel’s most recent post-season ERA’s
- 2017 ALDS – 4.50
- 2018 ALDS – 11.57
- 2018 ALCS – 4.50
- 2018 WS – 4.15
For his career, Kimbrel has a 3.92 Post-Season ERA. Dodger fans rag on Kenley Jansen who has a career post-season ERA of 2.08 (4.50 in 2018). The point is: Relief pitching is tricky and unpredictable. Kenley’s career regular-season ERA is 2.24 and his WHIP is 0.888. Most Dodger fans would be shocked to know that Kenley’s career post-season ERA and WHIP are lower than his career ERA and Whip, at 2.08 and 0.818!
The Dodgers are #2 behind Tampa Bay in pitching, but the reason they are is because of their starting pitching, not the bullpen. Cleveland is #1 in bullpen ERA and they have Brad Hand and a bunch of “guys” while Tampa Bay is #2 with just a bunch of young guys. Then, there is Houston at #3 thanks to Ryan Pressley’s 0.93 ERA, Will Harris’ 1.61 ERA, Roberto Ozuna’s 2.17 ERA, and Hector Rondon’s 2,86 ERA. The rest of the pen is pretty bad, but that quartet has been outstanding.
Can all of these teams keep it up? I say no and I think the bullpen ERA’s will creep up with use. In Houston’s case, three of the four pitchers mentioned above are over 30 years old, while Ozuna is 24, but here’s what jumps out to me: All four of these pitchers got much better when they came to Houston – their ERA’s and WHIP dropped and instead of just “guys” they became lockdown relievers.
Justin Verlander turned his declining career around when he came to Houston. The same with Gerrit Cole. I think there is something to that. I am not going to bash Rick Honeycutt because he has been one of the Top Pitching Coaches for what seems like decades. However, look at what Robert Von Socyoc has accomplished after the highly respected Turner Ward left as the Dodger pitching coach.
I would like to see a couple of better bullpen arms. I have suggested Leclerc and Greene, others have said Doolittle or Hand or Vasquez. However, a bullpen is only as good as their pitching strategy and right about now, it appears to me that Houston has better analytics in that department. The Dodgers need to have a better bullpen. I also know that improvement can come from within or by trade.
The Dodgers started the team off slowly this year, by design so as to mitigate “World Series Fatigue.” I totally get that. Has the success of the bullpen been retarded because of that? Possibly. Will they improve? I think it is likely, but there are no guarantees. It is not lost on me that this team is the best in baseball, even with a mediocre bullpen. I also know there are only three outcomes with this bullpen:
- They will stay the same
- They will get better
- They will get worse
There’s a 66% chance they won’t be great, so I do think they need to acquire another arm or two. One lock-down 8th inning guy may be enough. Tampa Bay is doing it with a bunch of young guys. There’s merit in that. I think the Dodgers stick with a guy as a starter too long sometimes (Stewart, Santana, and others), but they are successful, so who knows? AC is right that Andrew Friedman doesn’t spend big money on the bullpen – maybe that’s why they have been to Two World Series in a row. Maybe if they had spent big on the pen, they wouldn’t have gotten other players and would not have even gotten there. On the other hand, maybe they would have won. We don’t know.
What to Expect
I do think this year is different. I think the team is much better. They have a Superstar and several other stars. They are clutch, they hit with RISP, the starting pitching is outstanding and the defense is excellent. The only sub-par part of the team is the bullpen. I think Joe Kelly will get better, much better. The same with Floro and Beaz. I thought Scott Alexander would break out this year, but maybe he’s a guy who can’t play in LA. His stats aren’t horrible, but he’s not clutch.
I look at WHIP a lot and consider the WHIP of these pitchers:
- Kenley Jansen – 0.896
- Pedro Baez – 0.878
- Yimi Garcia – 0.972
- Julio Urias – 1.047
- Dylan Floro – 1.062
If you just look at WHIP, that is outstanding, but where they have been burned is allowing inherited runners to score and the home run ball. It’s possible it is bad luck and will even out. It’s possible that it is pitch selection and the hitters know what is coming. The fact that Ryu will throw any of four pitches at any point in the count makes him almost unhittable. If a hitter knows what is coming, he will often hit it. I think the Dodgers pitching coaches need to consider that.
I think Andrew Friedman knows what he has this year. He has the team and the stars are aligned. He has never been RIGHT HERE before… none of the past two teams were THIS good. I believe he will pull the trigger for a lock-down reliever or two. It will happen in the next few weeks.
Minor League Report by DC
DSL Dodgers Shoemaker 10 – DSL Indians 9
Another slugfest for the Dodgers Shoemaker for the fourth consecutive game. All five pitchers gave up at least one earned run. Osvanni Guterierrez made his professional debut and had one of the better outings giving up one earned run in 2.1 innings pitched. He struck out three and didn’t walk any.
Offensively they had only six hits but worked eight walks and were also helped by five Indians errors. Marlon Cairo with two hits had the only multiple hit game.
DSL Dodgers Bautista 3 – DSL Royals1 2
The Dodgers got good pitching from three pitchers. Seventeen-year-old Jeremi Rodriguez made his professional debut a good one. In 4.1 innings he gave up one one hit, one run, two walks and struck out six. Another 17-year-old, Heisell Baro, pitched two scoreless innings with one walk and four strikeouts. Middle man, Hugo Beltran, got the win with 2.2 innings pitched on one hit and with one earned run and two strikeouts.
At the plate the Dodgers had only three hits, one a run-scoring triple by Carlos Santiago. One unusual play was a run scored by the Dodgers while being the victims of a triple-play.
Great Lakes Loons 1 – Lansing Lugnuts 7 (Toronto)
Recently selected all-star Jose Chacin started for the Loons and breezed through four innings but ran into some trouble giving up two runs in the fifth inning and another in the sixth inning without recording an out. He was followed by all-star Austin Drury who struck out the side in the sixth but seemed rattled after a ball fell in for a double in the seventh when Dan Robinson fell down on a playable ball. Two singles that dribbled through the infield brought in a fourth run. Jasiel Alvino came on to put out the fire and finished up with 2.2 innings pitched with two hits and three strikeouts. The two hits with two out in the top of the ninth inning were a home run and a triple. Joel Inoa was called in to get the last out and did so after giving up another triple and a wild pitch with two more runs scored.
The Loons bats fell silent with five hits, one a home run by Chris Roller and another a Miguel Vargas double.
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 3 – Lancaster JetHawks 9 (Colorado)
The Quakes spotted the JetHawks a run in the top of the first inning and five more in the top of the third inning and never caught up. Starter Geraldo Carrillo continues to struggle and was charged with six runs in 2.2 innings. Melvin Jimenez and Connor Mitchell gave up another three in their 5.1 innings while outfielder Nick Yarnell pitched a scoreless ninth inning.
At the dish, the Quakes actually out hit the JetHawks 12-9 but Lancaster was aided by eight walks. Every Quake except Jeter Downs had a hit with Devin Mann, Connor Wong, Donovan Casey, Marcus Chiu and Starling Herdia having two each.
Tulsa Drillers – Arkansas Travelers (Seattle)
Tulsa game canceled because of rain. The game has been rescheduled as part of a doubleheader today.
OKC Dodgers 5 – Sacramento River Cats 7 (SF)
Dodgers No.8 prospect Mitchell White got the call but not the message. In 3.1 innings he gave up seven hits, six earned runs with three walks and three strikeouts. Justin Grimm got through 1.2 innings with no further damage but Stetson Allie gave up a run in the top of the sixth. Adam McCreery and Jaime Schultz finished up by stringing together three scoreless innings.
The Dodgers got two back in the bottom of the fourth on a Shane Peterson home run and a Rocky Gale single. They made a run for the border in the bottom of the ninth inning scoring three runs but not enough to draw even.
LeClerk, Diaz, or In-house. Those are my three choices. Can we move on?
https://www.last.fm/music/The+Rolling+Stones/_/(I+Can%27t+Get+No)+Satisfaction
Bums, this team is rolling on all cylinders with the exception of the bullpen. What else do we fans have to complain about? Can’t I please continue to be bitter that Ryan Pressly is an Astro and not a Dodger?
Yes, you have my permission. But, I was giving you LeClerk so I wasn’t being too restrictive.
Well, no doubt the bullpen is somewhat inconsistent, but I do think Kelly will come around. What the Dodgers are missing is the Brandon Morrow piece (2017). The guy from the Bay Area would be that difference maker, but who knows if that would get done. Perhaps with Farhan … It will be the major priority at the trade deadline, lots of possibilities. Earlier, Friedman had said he would like to acquire a righthanded bat. Wonder if that is still in the thinking? But, I agree Mark, bullpens are tricky.
Is Will Smith the pitcher in our future?
Why Farhan Zaidi says there’s ‘strategic advantage’ to Giants-Dodgers trade
They’re not catching their longtime division rivals. That’s been obvious for months, perhaps even before the season began.
But might they trade with them?
Woah. Wait a second. That’s not cool. The hate is too strong, right?
Since 1958, the Giants and Dodgers have teamed up on just three trades. But in a radio interview Thursday, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi explained why fans shouldn’t rule out the possibility of a fourth deal.
“There is an interesting point here,” Zaidi said on KNBR’s “Tolbert & Lund” show Thursday. “If we do end up in a position where we’re selling and looking to get some future talent, you actually want to be trading in the division because you want to weaken your rivals in future years, and you want them to push more chips into the present. In a way, it actually benefits you more.”
If anyone knows what the Dodgers have in store for the future, it’s Zaidi, who spent the previous four seasons as Los Angeles’ general manager. Now on the San Francisco side of the rivalry, Zaidi understands why fans might not be wild about the idea of trading with the Dodgers.
“I understand there’s all kinds of emotional baggage going with that,” Zaidi conceded. “Maybe the Dodgers are a special case, and I think most fans would say it’s not maybe, they just are a special case. But in general, I actually think trading in the division has a strategic advantage.”
Aside from the strategic advantage, the Giants might have more reason to consider trading with their division rivals after two major free agents signed with teams Thursday. The Cubs landed closer Craig Kimbrel, and the Braves reportedly agreed to terms with starter Dallas Keuchel. For the teams that missed out on those two veterans, Zaidi expects to be hearing from them soon.
“[Those two being off the market] does show the teams that were in on those guys — it kind of identifies who the buyers are going to be in the starting-pitcher market and the relief market,” Zaidi said. “Certainly for the teams that did not land those players, they’re going to be looking elsewhere to try to fill those needs. So I expect there’ll be a lot more phone calls between GMs these next couple weeks.”
Zaidi also issued a reminder that, because of a recent rule change, teams have more reason to start trade talks sooner rather than later.
“Again, without trade waivers this coming August, it’s going to put more pressure on teams to get their business done before July 31,” he said.
The Giants most certainly will be sellers. They clearly can’t compete with the Dodgers in the present. But if a trade with Los Angeles can help them do so down the line, it’s something worth considering.
Good thinking. If present competition is out then do something that meets the future in the middle–as in helping the top to regress a little in exchange for the bottom to progress a little.
Before we try going outside, are we at all considering bringing up Gonsolin for a bullpen role? That 99mph fastball might be effective for the next several months.
And excellent, long term thinking point by Farhan: If he can hypothetically extract a Will Smith or a Dustin May from the Dodgers for his Will Smith, then yes, he gets himself a top prospect AND hurts the Dodgers, who might regret making the deal for years to come (unless of course, pitcher Will Smith helps us win a ring)
A Will Smith for Will Smith trade would be funny. I can see the Dodgers trading Beatty and a couple of minor leaguers for Smith.
Will Smith (pitcher) is a rental. Your valuation of Beatty and a minor league prospect or two is fair valuation.
Will Smith (catcher) is overpay for a rental. He is MLB ready as a regular starter.
Smith and Barnes (Smarnes?) are our catchers next year.
With our catching depth I expect to see catching tandems (co-starters) for future to keep the catchers fresh for October
It has not been a good start for young pitching “phenoms” this year. White just got lit up again last night at OKC. May hasn’t been great at Tulsa. And either has Santana at OKC. Gonsolin has been “hurt” ? And Ferguson was sent down. Is anyone else concerned and are we willing to part with any of these kids for an eighth inning reliever?
Therein lies the rub. I am against trading with the Giants, unless it’s for someone Carrillo or Rooney. Will Smith is worth that. Farhan knows the Dodger system very well. Don’t believe for a minute that he won’t build a great team in SF.
OK, look at this:
2013 – Age 24 – 76 IP/71 H/1.81 SO to W/3.87 ERA/1.278 WHIP
2014 – Age 25 – 28 IP/30 H/1.75 SO to W/2.86 ERA/.1341 WHIP
2015 – Age 26 – 27 IP/27 H/1.83 SO to W/2.93 ERA/1.410 WHIP
2016 – Age 27 – 75 IP/79 H/2.91 SO to W/3.70 ERA/1.345 WHIP
2017 – Age 28 – 61 IP/52 H/3.21 SO to W/4.70 ERA/1.158 WHIP
2018 – Age 29 – 47 IP/46 H/3.63 SO to W/3.40 ERA/1.364 WHIP
Then Ryan Pressly got traded to Houston:
2108 – Age 29 – 23 IP/11 H/10.67 SO to W/0.77 ERA/0.60 WHIP
2019 – Age 30 – 29 IP/17 H/8.00 SO to W/0.93 ERA/0.724 WHIP
Now, this we know: AC wanted to trade for Pressly, but how did he know what he would become? Was it Houston’s pitching gurus that changed him? What if he had been traded to the Dodgers? Would he have been the same pitcher he is now? Or, is AC just a genius? I want to know!
At any rate, I am asking AC for the powerball numbers from here on.
Because AC has a great knowledge and feel for the game.
AF cannot feel good about the Kelly acquisition. He went out and spent more money than usual on a reliever that has simply been a bust, so far. OK. That is the way the cookie crumbles sometimes. Nobody is a winner all of the time. I would think that with this taste in his mouth, his first consideration would be ‘who do we have in-house that we could start polishing up and make ready for the post-season?’ I don’t feel qualified to offer any opinion about who that should be. I just know that that would be the logical direction to look for this FO.
Don’t forget that AF’s mandate is to keep the payroll under the luxury tax which he has for the last 2 years, I believe. Any big buck reliever is going to cross that line. What I don’t quite understand is why isn’t Strip and Urias considered to be the lock down relievers? Do we need every reliever to be a lock down pitcher? That would be ideal but not real. No team has only lock down relievers or stars. That’s just not the way it is. So, I come back to my original position and say the Dodgers don’t need to add anyone. They need to polish their own silver; Doc needs to be very selective in pulling starters as they are our strength; not rotate in relievers for 1 batter; not be so concerned about left-right matchups; and maybe hire a new BP coach or consultant like they did for the batters with Van Scoyoc. If they have to dig in the minors for another reliever, they better not be auditioning like they did last season as it almost cost us a post season appearance. But, let’s face it, AF has indeed neglected the BP and we’re paying the price for that. Kelly may bring him personal salvation if he pulls it together, but we can see that the BP is not AF’s strong point.
Having said all that, I am still not worried. We have a long season to get the BP together. Injury would be a far greater problem to worry about like my Warriors are going through, right now.
Andrew is not quite ready to pull the trigger yet.
https://www.dodgersnation.com/dodgers-andrew-friedman-speaks-on-the-state-of-the-bullpen/2019/06/06/
I say go big or go home but it appears it will be on the Dodger’s terms. No deals with Zaidi please.
ERA for a reliever is deceiving. Reliever comes in with bases loaded two outs, gives up triple, then gets 3rd out. His ERA for that is 0.00. Inherited runners is a much better thing to look at when checking relievers. Also there is a difference of coming in with no outs, a runner on third and coming in with two outs and a runner on first.
I think there should be a different way to determine the winning pitcher. Consider pitcher A pitches 8 innings and leaves leading 2-0, pitcher B comes in gives up 3 runs, the the home team scores 2 runs in the last of the 9th to win. Why should pitcher B get credit for the win? I know that is the rule, but it seems unfair. Also now that teams are using an “opener” should that pitcher have to go 5 innings to get a win?
For baseball card fans:
https://rotisserieduck.com/
Cool Goudey Cards. Gotta find more.
You make some excellent points about the bullpen, Mark. Especially stating that the bullpen has been retarded. You also pointed to their WHIP which is an excellent indicator on how well someone pitches, much like OPS for hitters. I’d hate to give up on any of those guys. The problem with inherited runners is huge, maybe some bad luck? Maybe they need to throw a few more pitches in the pen before they get on the bump?
I’ve been picking on Doc a lot about Alexander and his inability to get lefties out, and Doc’s propensity to keep putting him in that situation. Strategically, this is horrible. But, I can see that he’s trying to instill confidence in Alex, and that’s a good thing. The balance may not be so good.
With that said, I would be all for AC’s early identification in Spring Training, or even before, that we need an arm or two. We don’t have to give up on these guys with options, but we don’t have to keep them on the 25 man either. Everyone has their preferences as to who we should trade for, so I’m not going to get into that. But, we need someone to pitch the 8th (and insurance for the ninth, someone with experience getting saves) and a lefty who’s murder on lefties. That would make this team as close to perfection as we can get. Let Floro and Alexander try to figure out their flaws in the minors.
As risky as it is trying to get these guys from the outside, it’s more risky to go from within at this point. Gonsolin might have closer’s stuff and he had a ton of saves before he converted to being a starter. But, time is running out for him to the get MLB experience before the playoffs start. Urias back to the rotation, Maeda to the pen might be the answer for the 8th. But, he was awesome at the end of games in 2017, but crapped his pants last year when Jansen was out. Ferguson – see Maeda. Awesome last year, not so much this year.
What to do, what to do!
Pollock will be back soon? Maybe by the end of the Month? He is the right handed bat to balance the lineup. But, our top three hitters are all outfielders. Pollock is not a platoon option, forget about that right now!
What to do, what to do!
AF’s job is about to get harder. Anyone team can improve on a team with a lot of flaws. Anyone can plug holes by selling off their best prospects. It’s artful to improve a great team without shooting the future in the face. It takes a magician to plug a gaping hole without giving up the guys that everyone wants. I can’t wait to see what Andrew pulls out of his hat this year. Machado last year, Darvish the year before and Dick Mountain the year before that!
You can’t bet on who we’ll get, but you can put your money where your mouth is that we’re gonna try!
well said. I’m glad I”m not in charge!! I’m just here for the ride (and the ring)
The Braves and Cubs have already improved themselves this week. Kimbrel & Kuechel
I am wondering if they are working Joc at first in practice. Verdugo, Bellinger and Pollock need to play every day. That is your outfield. Joc/Freese at first, Muncy at second. That makes more sense to me.
I would trade Barnes. Keep Martin one more year.
Today:
CT3
Muncy (2b)
JT
Belly
Freeze
Seager
Kike (cf)
Barnes
Kersh
Mitch Haniger is hitting 220, leads the AL in Strikeouts and is currently on the DL with a ruptured testicle. Ouch!
Triple ouch.
Wow, nice play Max!
I said over the winter that Muncy could play 2B. Many disagreed.
Case closed!
if thats the case, is Gavin Lux trade bait?
I hope NOT. Put Corey at 3B and LUx at SS before trading him.
Another cy young lefty vs. Dodgers!
There’s one pitching against the Giants too.
I wonder if anyone has this stat. But it seems like when Taylor AND Hernandez both start a game the Dodgers don’t score many runs and probably have a losing record.
But I don’t have that stat so I may be wrong.
I don’t doubt you. The Giants seem to kick the Dodger Ass all the time. Dodgers need to get a nastier attitude.
Dodger Killers. The Giants have our number.
Plus, I fear that Bellinger’s Bat has gone cold, and dreams of hitting .400 are long gone. His Home Run output has slowed dramatically since his great month.
Plus the news is that Pollack will bump Verdugo from the lineup and CF. How stupid is that! But old DR thinks it is a great thing. Pollack is like the old adage compared to Verdugo. Edsel vs Ferrari
The Astros are an awesome talented team. I watched them against the A’s and sorry to tell Mark “the almighty” T but they don’t really need a super BP because their starting pitching is so dang great, Astros Manager, unlike our beloved DR, has no need to run to the bullpen. It is Doc “the panicky sea lion” Roberts who loves to run for the BP and lose games.
Don’t post that crap here, is awfully mean 🙁