Sometimes the people or players who help you get to a certain place or benchmark are not the people or players who can take you to the next level. I have witnessed this firsthand as US Water Systems has grown from 22 employees two years ago to almost 50 today. Some of the people who helped get me to certain places aren’t capable, or willing to go to the next level.
This is most certainly true with any business or team. Some people or players just are not wired for that. It’s always hard to conclude that a valuable member of your team has lost their value or is inhibiting your growth. I liked the redemption story of Matt Kemp (you can come home again… but you can’t stay), Yasiel Puig was fun to watch and maddening, and Alex Wood while a good guy but had his own agenda.
I believe that Andrew Friedman truly believed the Dodgers would be better without those players so he made an addition by subtraction… and the Dodgers never missed a beat! He calculated that he could parlay those players into two top prospects and Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray are both very interesting prospects. Many called Friedman crazy when he made that deal… CRAZY… Like a Fox!
By the way, I am going to Cincinnati tomorrow to see Striker Buehler throw a no-no against the Cincinnati Puigs! I will acknowledge that Puig is capable of hitting 4 HR tomorrow and driving in 12, but hopefully, Buehler throttles him. Here in Indy, we get Cincinnati Radio stations (I can be in Cincy in a little over 90 minutes), and Reds fans are in a rage over the trade. Scouts think GM Nick Krall is a moron. The truth is: the Reds front office is a mess as they struggle with analytics versus scouting. Scouting has dominated and the Reds record shows the results. Fas are calling in demanding Puig be traded and Fatt Kemp was already dumped (there’s a Fatt chance he comes home again).
Like it or not, analytics are here to stay and baseball is evolving. Analytics also take time to implement and trust (you can never trust anything 100% = believe half of what you see). The Yankees, Astros, and Dodgers, in that order are the teams most heavily involved in analytics. They are probably baseballs three best teams. That is something you need to remember.
While we are looking at Joc Pederson’s splits against LHP or RHP, the Dodgers are looking much deeper:
- Day games versus night games.
- Divide the plate into 9 zones and how does the pitcher do in each zone?
- Curveball, fastball, slider, change and where is it in the zone?
- What kind of pitches does that pitcher throw in certain situations?
- How does the hitter handle pitches in each and compare that to the pitchers’ proclivities?
In the bowels of Dodger Stadium there are a bunch (and I mean a BIG BUNCH) of analysts crunching these numbers, developing algorithms and scouting reports based upon the hard data and the data is always in flux, so it never stops. All of the successful teams are using this and sharing none of it so as to keep an edge. It may come as a surprise to some, but way back in 1988, the Dodgers were making some use of analytics:
“Just as sure as I am standing here, partner, you are going to throw me a backdoor slider on a 3-2 count… and that’s all I am looking for.”
I did not look up the exact quote, but I saw the interview with Kirk Gibson who “sold out” on analytics and broke the Oakland A’s back with one swing in the zone where he thought the pitch would be. That’s the power of analytics. Analytics are not to be worshiped because there is always an element of “luck” in baseball. However, with analytics, “luck is where preparation meets opportunity!” Analytics can make all the difference. They are simply another “tool” for any successful team.
So, the next time you question a move that is made by Dave Roberts, you need to realize that there is probably a reason for it. You need to realize that you have a transistor radio and Doc has a “mainframe.” They have analytics for analytics and if you follow the data, you will be right more often than not… nothing is 100%. The data may tell you that Joc can hit this certain LH pitcher, but it’s still up to him to execute (I am just using Joc as an example and for no particular reason). So, while there may be a reason for a certain move, the player has to execute. It’s all down to that.
Back to my first premise: “The players who got you there, might not be the ones to take you the rest of the way.” Cody Bellinger got us there, but over the winter and into the season, he is a student of analytics. He is the poster child of what happens when you trust the data. He doesn’t swing at pitches he can’t hit so he is always looking in a certain “zone.” Analytics and a willingness to work and study hard has elevated him to be the BEST PLAYER IN BASEBALL… at least RIGHT NOW! That’s what the use of analytics can do. Some say analytics is boring. Is Cody Bellinger boring? I think not.
Dodger News
- It was great to see Jordon Sheffield promoted to AA (he should kill it there… getting out of the Cal League).
- Zach Reks was promoted to AAA – he’s a solid piece too.
- Adam McCreery was moved to AAA – this should be a challenge for him.
- I am really happy for Kyle Garlic and it’s good to have Caleb Ferguson and Matt Beaty back. I predict they will do something great in the bandbox in Cincy.
- There is an interesting article in THE ATHLETIC today about the Dodger’s frustration with Kenley Jansen’s pitch selection. I am not sure what to make of it. It may or may not be overblown.
Minor League Report by DC
Four out of five isn’t bad.
Great Lakes Loons 3 – West Michigan Whitecaps 11 (Detroit)
The Loons had one of those forgettable moments on Thursday evening. The usually steady Jose Chacin gave up eight runs on 10 hits over four innings. In his previous 27 innings he had given up only five earned runs. Drew Finley didn’t fare much better giving up three runs in 1.2 innings pitched.
The Loons actually started well with a two-run home run in the top of the first inning by catcher Jair Camargo. They scored one more run in the fifth inning on a Jacob Amaya ground out. They collected only six hits, three of them by third baseman Miguel Vargas including two doubles. He raised his batting average to .298.
Great Lakes Loons 6 – West Michigan Whitecaps 1 (Detroit)
The Loons didn’t have to wait very long for another shot at improved play as they played a second game with the Whitecaps as a make up game that was rained out back on April 14. They again started quickly with the first five hitters reaching base and three runs scoring, two of them on a James Outman single. They struck again in the top of the third inning on a Romer Cuadrado single driving in James Outman followed by a two-run home run by Luke Heyer.
Left-hander Jon Rooney made his 2019 season debut and showed some early rust giving up a single and double to the first two Whitecap hitters. However, he settled in to strike out two hitters in the inning sandwiched in between a runner cut down at the plate on an attempted double steal. In the second inning he walked two and then proceeded to pick off both runners. Rooney pitched four scoreless innings on three hits, two walks and four strikeouts. His delivery at times was reminiscent of Rich Hill’s but less exaggerated. Nathan Witt relieved Rooney in the fifth inning retiring the side on a hit and a walk with two strikeouts. He was replaced By Jasiel Alvino with one out and one on in the bottom of the sixth inning. Alvino proceeded to give up three consecutive singles and one run before ending the inning. However, he finished out the ninth inning with no further damage.
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes 7- Lancaster JetHawks 2 (Colorado)
Josiah Gray started for the Quakes and through three innings had recorded seven strikeouts. He ran into trouble in the fourth inning giving up two singles and a double as well as a walk resulting in two runs for the JetHawks. Gray finished off the fifth inning on just one more hit. He threw 87 pitches, 59 for strikes. The relief corps of Ryan Moseley,Connor Mitchell and Logan Salow followed up with four scoreless innings on four hits, a walk and four strikeouts.
The Quakes opened the scoring in the top of the fourth inning on a Connor Wong double, followed by a Devin Mann single and a Donovan Casey RBI single. Trailing 2-1 going into the top of the seventh inning the Quakes put four on the board aided by two Lancaster errors along with a run scoring double by Marcus Chiu and a single by Jeter Downs plating two. Two more came home in the top of the eighth inning on a Donovan Casey home run. Chiu and Casey each had two hits while Devin Mann had his second consecutive four-hit game following a three-hit game.
Tulsa Drillers 8 – Arkansas Travelers 2 (Seattle)
Justin De Fratus started for the Drillers going six innings on five hits, two runs and three strikeouts. He was followed by Jordan Sheffield making his Drillers debut. Sheffield gave up a single in the seventh inning and ended the inning with a double play. He came back in the eighth inning issuing a walk and striking out two. He returned for the ninth inning setting the side down in order with another strikeout. Over his three innings he threw 33 pitched, 24 for strikes.
The Drillers game mirrored the OKC Dodgers game for the first five innings with Tulsa finishing the inning ahead 4-2. Those runs came in on a singles by Jared Walker and Cody Thomas, a home run by Keibert Ruiz and a walk to Chris Parmalee. Three more runs were tacked on in the bottom of the seventh inning on a wild pitch after the bases were walked full followed by singles by Parmalee and Angelo Mora. In the bottom of the eighth inning Keibert Ruiz, with his fourth hit, drove in the Drillers eighth run. Gavin Lux had two hits as did Christian Santana while Cody Thomas had a three-hit game.
Carlos Rincon made his Drillers debut with three strikeouts and a walk in four plate appearances.
OKC Dodgers 5 – Omaha Storm Chasers 3 (Kansas City)
Ben Holmes made the start for the Dodgers and tossed five innings giving up two runs on five hits and two walks while striking out two. Tony Cingrani followed Holmes and gave up one run on two hits and a walk. Kevin Quackenbush,Josh Sborz and Jaime Schultz each tossed a scoreless inning.
The Dodgers came into the bottom of the fifth inning down 2-0 but when the dust had settled they left the innings with a 4-2 lead. Three runs scored on a Zach Reks home run, his first hit as a Dodger after being called up from the Drillers. The fourth run scored on an Edwin Rios sacrifice fly. Rios had another fly ball in the bottom of the seventh inning which cleared the center field wall for a solo home run.
Gavin Lux (from 2017 )- Photo credit Marshall Dunlap on Flickr
With over a month down in the 2019 season, here’s a look at some Dodgers prospects who have gotten off to a hot start.
Omar Estevez
Estevez began his first month in Double-A with a scorching hot .385/.449/.564 line, adding two homers and eight doubles. Estevez also improved on his plate discipline, putting up a 10/13 BB/K ratio. He reached base in all but two games he started in April, and in each of the seventeen games he did reach base, he did so at least twice in each game. While he’s cooled off a little bit in May, he’s still hitting Estevez .333/.412/.456 overall. He just turned 21 in February, so this could be the beginning of a breakout year for him, if he can come back quickly from the unknown leg injury that just got him placed on the IL.
Josiah Gray
In his first month in a new organization, Josiah Gray has quickly impressed and put himself on the radar as one of the Dodgers’ top pitching prospects. In five starts at Single-A, Gray pitched to a 1.93 ERA in 23.1 innings pitched across five starts, adding a 26/7 K/BB ratio. Gray also allowed batters to hit just .165 against him, and his stats hold up sabermetrically as well, with his performance translating to a 2.25 FIP. With the way he’s pitched this year, Gray may not be in Single-A for long. Gray has already been promoted to High-A Rancho Cucamonga, where he had a lackluster debut that he will look to improve upon in the coming weeks.
Gavin Lux
Lux broke out last year as not only one of the Dodgers’ best prospects, but one of the best middle infield prospects in baseball, and he’s continued that progress into this season. All he’s done is hit .298/.362/.562 and with eight homers already, after hitting 15 across two levels last year. His BABIP signals there could be even more room for improvement, and with his progress, it’d be a surprise if he didn’t finish the year at Triple-A or higher.
Mitchell White
White, like Gray, was recently promoted a level after a very strong start to 2019. White spent part of 2017 and all of 2018 at Double-A, and it appears the third time around was the charm for him. In seven starts, he had just a 2.10 ERA, allowing zero earned runs in four of those seven starts, and never allowing more than three in any start. He’s got his strikeout and walk rates back where they need to be, with 11.1 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. Batters have hit just .165 against him this year, and he’s got a low WHIP of 0.83. After a tough year last year, this looks to be a #RenaissanceSzn for White.
Edwin Uceta
Uceta is by far the least heralded of all the prospects on his list, but his performance this year can stand alongside with ease. In his seven starts this year, Uceta has pitched to a 1.89 ERA with High-A Rancho, allowing zero earned runs in four of his seven starts. The smallish righty has put up 11.34 K/9 and 2.97 BB/9, striking out 42 batters in 33.1 innings pitched. After a breakout year last year, Uceta will spend the entirety of this season as a 21 year old, and if he keeps performing at this level, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him rewarded with a promotion to Double-A soon.
Thank you Tony. Welcome back to LAdodgerTalk.
Very nice update Tony! I’m itching for a Gavin Lux promotion and Omar Estevez really opened my eyes during the Spring. It’s one thing to see the stats, it’s entirely another to see them play in person which gives you an idea of the athletic ability of these young players.
As much as I get irritated with Doc and his ridiculous mid-inning pitching changes to “exploit” a platoon advantage, I also realize there’s more to his job that the in-game decisions that often backfire on him. The patience and confidence he has in his players is something to be commended. For every snarky post-game comment, there’s also a word of encouragement, and ultimate positive outlook on his players that can only encourage confidence in his players. I just hope he starts to get better at the in-game part of his job.
He’s still a bad driver.
Mark, have a great time at the game in Cincy! I hope you have some Skyline Chili.
I love Skyline Chili. There are some stores in Indy, but it isn’t the same without the huge mound of cheese and I am off dairy products.
I agree with u totally even tho I still dont think he is very good with pitching and the decisions he makes at pulling out the pitchers. I just dont think he understands pitchers but what do I know
M.T. – Back to Gibson por favor… Wasn’t it an advanced scout that made Gibson aware of the back door slider that he was served up??? Having heard Gibby interviewed a few times, I really can’t see him coming up with that on his own…
Yes it was. Dodger Scout, Mel Didier. Didier knew what he was going to throw in that situation thru observation, not with the help of a computer algorithm.
Here’s Orel’s story about it:
Great pitcher but not a real dynamite color guy. At least not for me. I like Monday.
For certain Orel knows, lives and breathes baseball and offers more than a thumbnail of wizdom that never dries. I do admit he seems too soft spoken to reach all points of a fan base while he deserves all ears.
Mel Diddier was the scout
From what I’ve read, Ruiz is mostly getting by on natural ability and baseball instincts. If we can get him up to speed on strength & conditioning and get him hooked into our analytics, he could turn into a monster. Elite catching tools and bat-to-ball skills are a great combination.
They have been remaking his swing this you to keep him in the zone longer. It appears to be taking hold.
Lux will move up a level.
Down will move up another level.
Ruiz will also move up a level and Smith might make the show.
Thus could all happen by mid-season.
History suggests that Garlick will not stick, and even if he looks good early he world is littered with Rob Segedins.
That said, I’m stoked for Garlick and excited for Reks.
Underdogs unite!
For 2018 and ’19 in Tulsa:
Ruiz has 39 strikeouts in 492 ABs (543 PA).
That is freakish.
Y’know what else is freakish?
Think back to where you were at about 7:45 pm Eastern last Saturday? Why? Because that was the last time the Marlins scored a run.
A RUN!
Minor League Report by DC is updated above.
In spring training this year I had an opportunity to talk with Dave Roberts and one of the questions I asked him was, “Do you feel that you relate differently to the front office this year because Zaidi is gone?” I was looking for him to talk about the amount of control the front office was exerting, but he said he really missed Zaidi and that he was a very good friend. Then he went on to answer my question in a way that puzzled me at first.
He said something that is pertinent to this discussion. The best I remember, it went something like this. It’s hard when some people are so resistant to change. We have so much information at our disposal now and people are reluctant to trust it, in fact they distrust it.
Since that wasn’t my question at all, I think the fact that he went there said that he wanted to get something off of his chest. I think he was referring to sports writers (and bloggers) who criticized him for some of the decisions he was making more that talking about the front office, but since me question was about the front office perhaps he was hinting at a minor struggle going on with some people in the organization.
Whatever, it is obvious that he is sold on analytics.
Somewhat related to today’s topic of analytics, check out Pedro Moura’s article at The Athletic on the Dodgers use of VR.
I knew they were doing this and it is really fascinating.
Question, Dodgers need help at pitching not outfield depth nor hitting. Can someone explain why did they recall 2 hitters and not pitching, dont understand there process??
We’re simply skipping Maeda’s spot in the rotation, probably due to days off.
No real net change in the roster other than an extra bat for what is already a short bench.
Same number of relievers available
Oh ok cool beans, understandable, thank you?? Basically just waiting for his return!
per Houston Mitchell this morning:
Comparing the Dodgers through 39 games this season to the same number of games the last two seasons:
2019: 29-16, .255/.343/.453, 5.22 runs per game, 3.51 ERA
2018: 19-26, .249/.319/.393, 4.31 runs per game, 3.84 ERA
2017: 26-19, .265/.347/.435, 5.07 runs per game, 3.41 ERA
The Runs scored and ERA are the biggies.
I’m a superstitious person so I try not to look too far ahead.
But, I would be surprised if we don’t win the division by 10 games.
It will all come down to the postseason. In some ways, the 5 game NLDS is scarier than the NLCS [where the better team usually wins].
And if we make the WS, I like our chances.
(What a system we have in place where the season becomes basically a long dress rehearsal . . .)
The Padres might be better than we think.
They may make a run at Dallas Keuchel and/or MadBum – that’s the rumor!
If I were advising the Pads, I would push for Keuchel and forget about MadBum. I do not believe they are good enough yet to make a long run and hold off Atlanta, Milwaukee, or the Cardinals, but they will be next year. Keuchel on a multi year deal, no loss of draft pick, in that ball park makes a ton of sense. Keuchel keeps the ball down and in the yard…at Houston. So why not SD? MadBum will go to a team that needs a playoff pitcher and one that is willing to pay him to get out of his no-trade. Since I do not think the Pads are really a playoff team this year, I would pass on him and keep the prospects to see what they could bring in a multi year control pitcher in the winter.
The Dodgers are different. If the cost for MadBum is not too costly (fat chance of that), I would acquire him as a playoff pitcher. In a playoff, would you rather have MadBum pitching for you or against you?
Mark, as an owner don’t you have some sense of loyalty to the employees who got you there and are still working hard for you. To give you an example I have an office manager who has been with me for over 20 years and has helped build my successful business. Now I could easily hire someone at half her salary with much more tech savvy to better my business but I wouldn’t do it to her. Unlike millionaire ball players she wouldn’t have much to fall back on!
I have a lot of employees who have been with us for 12+ years, but some just can’t evolve. Case in point: Two years ago, I demoted our Customer Service Manager back to a sales position (without a drop in pay). He got mad and quit. Later I got him a job with a smaller company that he loves. In November, they had a surprise birthday party for me and he was there.
I once fired my son-in-law, gave him a car and $2,000.00 and told him to do something he liked.
He came back a year later and has worked for me for 5 years.
I don’t understand why DR doesn’t give Verdugo the leadoff position. Joc- .220 BA & .331 OBP. Verdugo- .330 BA & .370 OBP. Who would you rather have? To me the choice is clear.
Oops. I misspelled my name. Should be RichieF. Just a typo
Some days I can’t spell my name.
some days i forget my name
And it puts Joc down in the lineup so all,those solo hr’s could produce more runs.
Maeda was finally pitching good with consistency so they put him on the il. That is like a hitter getting 3 hits and then going to the bench the next game. Roll with the hot hand please! Typical, oh I am sorry maeda is hurt. Geez!
Maeda fake news
It’s easily proven with medical records.
Of course Friedman has been found faking it how many time?
ZERO!
You have to support a DL stint with record or it is Fake News.
Maeda is not Fake News!
You know as well as I do that there are “injuries” that are good enough for an IL stay and there are real injuries that keep a player from playing. If you asked Kenta if he could make his next start I’m sure he’d say yes. It’s like the latest controversy involving Derek Holland and the Giants. He said it was a fake injury until he was told by management that it wasn’t. He knew that he could pitch (well, to a point anyway) but the team wanted him on the IL.
I hire medical experts all of the time in my cases. You can probably find a doctor to endorse almost anything, especially a doctor who is paid by the Dodgers to do what they want.
I agree, but those are the rules.
Sometimes players have to be saved from themselves.
MLB investigates this stuff. Let’s see what they say…
Some guys want to pitch with their arm hanging by a tendon…
Sorry Mark, fake news! It’s no coincidence right after his last start and they don’t need a 5th starter for 10 days. They need bats not starters for this road trip! He has an “owie” on his thigh!
I don’t have inside information… maybe you do.
There are rules that have to be adhered to.
Or maybe you are just jumping to conclusions.
I guess you are free to think that, but do you have any proof?
When you have a wealth of starters you can do that. Maybe he would have been fine, but why tax them early in the season.
There has to have been an injury. The extent of it, we do not know.
Mitchell White gets the start tonight for OKC against Omaha Storm Chasers.
The game is blacked out here.
I got in using Hide My Ass, but all I can see is the Reds feed.
They were saying this about Kyle Farmer: “He’s a powerful RH batter.”
Cool….
Fake news
I think Rich Hill has “IT” tonight!
The Reds are going to have to Climb a Mountain tonight!
Why did they take Turner out? Is he hurt?
Anyone know why Turner left after the 4th.???
Alert: he left for a left shin contusion…
Thank you…
FAKE NEWS!
M.T. Actually I heard it from the Dodger folks on a live feed from Cinc…
But who am I to challenge the base…
I just love to see Hill bat. He battles you.
I gotta sign off now before the Doc crap starts…
Why is it that today’s pitchers need to waste a pitch, I don’t recall back in the old days pitchers did that.
Maddux was kind of famous for using “throwaway” pitches to set up future pitches. Truthfully, there are no wasted pitches. They all count. Change sight lines. Throw off rhythm.
Back in the day pitchers all threw strikes, never walked anyone and threw complete games every time out.
You must have watched Drysdale & Koufax 🙂
I think they waste less pitches these days. Vin was regularly complaining about guys giving up 0-2 hits toward the end of his career. Both losses to the Cubs this year were the result of bad 0-2 pitches and with the ridiculousness of the pitch count these days, starting pitchers don’t want to waste as many pitches because some algorithm will have them out of the game before they know it.
Dick Mountain gettin’it done!
The pen as well… including Kelly who has his ERA down to a minuscule 8.27!
How about Joe Kelly with a dominant 9th inning under intense pressure!!
Can you believe AF gave 90+ mil to a number 5 starter!
If you are talking about Clayton, yes and you are delusional.
1. Maeda DID foul a ball off his leg. We know that.
2. How long it would take to recover… we don’t know.
3. Would he have missed a start? We don’t know.
4. The medical staff supported a IL stint.
5. Maeda did not dissent.
6. MLB has not dissented.
7. The 10 Day IL is for a specific purpose.
8. Absent any other evidence, I suggest that you have no case.
I was just excited about the way maeda was pitching. To me his issues have always been consistency. He is great one start and terrible the next. He seemed to have found some consistency so it is disappointing that he is injured. If he is hurt he is hurt. I also support the idea of being cautious with any injury considering the quality depth the dodgers have. It is a long season and it is a credit to the organization that the dodgers can endure more injuries than most. The Yankees appear to be playing with the same book.
It’s a joke Mark! And yes Maeda has an “ owie” on his leg!
Since April 25, LA’s rotation is 11-1 with a 2.19 ERA. The Dodgers have thrown five shutouts, second to the Cubs for the NL lead.
Kemp getting in shape and recovering from injury seeking third stint with Dodgers ! I think would be an upgrade over Freese !!!