The sky is not falling and the end is not near, but I think the Dodger Brass should have a new “End Game” and that end is to figure out who to close games instead of Kenley Jansen… and before we even get started, don’t say “Craig Kimbrel” because he could be a step down from Kenley.
Kenley’s latest blown save and subsequent win is a microcosm of his last two seasons. Some say that his velocity is down, but to me it’s more about location. He isn’t horrible and maybe he will figure it out, but right about now, the Dodger should have Plan B.
Let me emphasize that Kenley is still a very solid bullpen piece… he’s just not the guy who can slam the door on every rally and end the game…. few are! Really, there are not too many. Kimbrel isn’t (he used to be) and I would not touch him with a ten foot pole. This is exacerbated by the inability of Joe Kelly to put up even a semblance of being a bridge to the 9th inning. Maybe the problem would not be so glaring if Joe could get some outs.
For the record, I am generally very happy with what Andrew Friedman has done and is doing, but I was against re-signing Kenley Jansen and not excited about the Joe Kelly signing, although I am solidly supporting it… for the most part. The Dodgers thought they could “fix” Joe Kelly and there still is time, but with every passing day, it doesn’t look good.
Where do they find a closer? Do they make a trade? I think they find the closer within the farm system and I doubt that they can trade for one. Sometimes you have to think outside of the box. I have few ideas, but I like the last one the best:
- Stetson Allie – He can throw over 100 MPH and I can see him in the Dodgers pen this season, but his control is the issue and it’s doubtful he can fully harness that THIS year.
- Dennis Santana – He lacks the third pitch to establish him as a starter, but he could be a dominant closer. I think that is a role for another year… maybe 2020 or 2021.
- Jesen Thierren – Having been coached by Game Over Gagne, he sports a similar repertoire to Gagne, but after arm surgery, he has yet to pitch this season, so he is totally unknown. It doesn’t seem likely this year! Maybe next….
- Tony Gonsolin – His 101 MPH fastball and three other plus pitches are more than adequate to be a lock-down closer, but he wants to start. He has good control and could be a great closer… if he could wrap his mind around it. It might start with convincing him to try it for a season. He’s the best hope in the Dodger system in my opinion. He could be a dominant closer this year and switch back to starting in 2020… or maybe he would be so good he would stay in that capacity.
Gonsolin has experience relieving – it was his idea to start and his four-pitch arsenal plays well as a starter. Again, the sky is not falling, but it is a concern. In another week, the bullpen will look much different with Julio Urias and Ross Stripling in it. Maybe Kenley will put it all together, but that doesn’t seem likely. Maybe Joe Kelly will figure it out. I don’t know if either one is likely. One could… one couldn’t. The Dodgers have the pieces to make a trade for a closer, but who?
Dodger Talk
- Cody Bellinger is currently the Dodgers’ Best Player. Of course, he’s not going to hit .400 and OPS 1.300… is he? No, but he might hit .300 and OPS 1.000. Cody showed the promise as a 21 year-old rookie, then got exposed in his sophomore year. He worked diligently all winter with Robert Van Socyoc and Company and you are seeing the results. I think he will be in the MVP hunt along with Yelich. As a Rookie, I said he was on a Hall-of-Fame Path and he is back on it.
- Clayton didn’t have great control yesterday, but I saw several fastballs at 92 MPH. I think he is trending in the right direction. This is his second start, so look for even better in the future. Noticeably thinner due to going off dairy, the key is that Clayton is not experiencing any back issues. I don’t know what it is, but I have been off dairy for over two months and my back pain is way, way down…. almost non-existent some days.
- Corey Seager is starting to look like the old Corey. AC assured me he would be fine and he did not lie.
- As well as Cody has looked, Joc is even more of a surprise. He is becoming a real problem for other team’s game-planning. I am really impressed with the changes Joc has made. He is striking out 20% of the time, which is manageable. BTW, Cody is striking out 14% of the time.
- Last year, the Dodgers struck out 25% of the time as a team. This year it is down to 22%. Last year, the Dodger hitters were 13th with RISP at .254. This year, they are 9th with a .281 BA. I think that is impressive
- The Astros are #1 in the Power Rankings and the Dodgers are #2. Could they both be headed back to a 2017 Showdown?
The Dodgers have an off day today and then on to Chi-town for three with the Cubbies.
Minor League Report by DC
Great Lakes Loons
The Loons had the day off on Sunday, a much needed rest after 17 straight game days. They start a three-game set at home with the West Michigan Whitecaps on Monday. They are presently 7-9 and three games behind the Lake County Captains.
Rancho Cucamonga Quakes
Not to be outdone, the Quakes had the day off on Sunday. They have a 10-7 record and a one -game lead on the Lake Elsinore Storm. Left-hander Bryan Warzek gets the call on Monday against the Inland Empire 66ers as the Quakes begin a seven-game road trip. In his last start, Warzek held the Storm hitless through five innings.
Tulsa Drillers
The Drillers also had the day off with Dustin May starting against the RockHounds to begin a four-game series in Midland on Monday and an eight-game road trip. The Drillers have split their first sixteen games down the middle leaving them four games back of the Arkansas Travelers.
OKC Dodgers 3 – Iowa Cubs 8
The Dodgers entered play on Sunday with a 6-10 record and four games behind the Round Rock Express.
Brock Stewart had a nice start for the Dodgers tossing five scoreless innings of three-hit ball with two walks and three strikeouts. His start was quickly forgotten as he was followed by Josh Smoker who gave up five runs in the sixth inning including a grand slam to Cubs first baseman Jim Aducci. Smoker sabotaged his own cause with four walks, all of which scored. Jaime Schultz and Josh Sborz put down six straight Cubs, striking two of them out. In the top of the ninth Zach McAllister served up another tater. This time a three-run shot pretty much putting the game out of reach.
The Dodgers had scored a run early in the second inning on a Cameron Perkins double and a Paulo Orlando single. They scored a second run in the bottom of the eighth on a Jake Peter double and a third in the bottom of the ninth on a Connor Joe sac fly. Joe had the only two-hit game for the Dodgers. Matt Beaty had a triple and scored on the sac fly.
They play the Cubs again on Monday hoping to rescue one game from the four-game series. In the first three games they have been outscored 29-8
I noted in a post yesterday that Kenley no longer throws strike after strike like he did in the past. So I agree with your assessment about his location. Also, I’ve always felt that he was more effective when he made frequent use of the high cutter on his glove side, but was also able to locate anywhere in the strike zone when he wanted. And he used to use his slider with greater frequency.
Maybe there are adjustments he still has to make, but I am concerned, given that I began to see a lot of this last year. I don’t know enough about the in-house solutions to have any opinion in that area. But Kimbrel is no longer the dominant Kimbrel I remember with Atlanta, and even if someone is available in a trade, at what cost?
I think your spot on about Tony Gonsolin. I suspect a mid season call up is in the offering.
Having both Urias and Stripling in the bullpen will help. However, i think Ferguson gets sent down, so we’re basically swapping Urias for Ferguson.
Just read an article by Ken Gurnick that said Maeda was the backup closer on Saturday (as Jansen had pitched 3 days in a row). Could he become the in-house option when Urias is moved back to the rotation?
Teams have been putting their best hitters in the #2 spot in the lineup. Yelich hits #2 and his RBI totals haven’t suffered. Has Belli taken the #2 spot from Seager? Yet?
Is there a good reason to be more concerned about Jansen than Turner?
I have always been impressed with the 70’s Reds offense. They had a thin rotation and very strong bullpen but it was the offense that for me was awesome.
Rose, Griffey Sr., Morgan, Bench, Perez, Foster, Concepcion, Geronemo.
Rose was in the second half of his career but still getting 200 hits
Griffey Sr. had no power but had a high ave and speed
Morgan had a great OBP, stole bases, great Ave. and good defense
Bench had power, Ave. and RBI and great defense
Perez was clutch
Foster was just getting started
Concepcion later became the #3 hitter
Geronemo was the weak link
Dodgers have more power throughout their lineup
They are going to be every bit as strong offensively this year as those 70’s Reds team, but do it through more power throughout their lineup.
I could look at the 55 Dodgers or the 75 Dodgers. Another time.
That Red team had 4 HOFers. Concepcion was borderline. Bench, if not the best ever, was a close second. All time hits leader in Rose. They should have won more, but despite the offensive arsenal, pitching was iffy, at best. I’m a huge Dodger fan, but please don’t compare these players with that Reds team. The game has radically changed from a performance standpoint. How many HOFers are on this team? Way too early to tell. Let them win a World Series first, then we can compare!!
Well, I lived in Ohio during that period of time and Dave Concepcion, while a nice player had a career .267 BA with 101 HR. He was never close to the HOF unless he visited there. He had some good seasons, but his overall body of work is not close to HOF material.
Bench and Rose were among the best ever. Morgan made the HOF, but if Tony Perez is in, Gil Hodges should be too! They are very similar.
The BRM had a number of players who complemented each other very well. You are right – the game has changed. Some of those players would be sitting on the bench today.
Kenley is not automatic, but he’s still pretty good. He took his first blown save of the season yesterday in an inning he shouldn’t have even pitched in. You’re going to see more of those if Doc decides that he’s going to keep using him to pitch more than an inning. He’s clearly just not that guy right now. As a matter of fact, if you’re writing an article suggesting that we need a new closer, what the hell is Doc doing pitching him in the eighth?
Jansen’s problems are the same as Kershaw’s. They are both still very good. But, reduced velocity is making them a little home run prone. If you’re going to say something about one, you might as well say it about the other. If you’re against the contract they gave to one, then you should be against the contract they gave to the other.
None of the four guys you mentioned are going to take over for Kenley this year. I say this for a couple of reasons.
1) Together they have 27 innings of MLB experience. Do you really think they’re gonna hand the CLOSER job over to anyone with ZERO to 18 innings of MLB experience? Let me give you a hint, HELL NO!
2) All of them have warts in some way or another. Therrien hasn’t pitched yet and is still recovering from surgery. When he did pitch in the MLB is wasn’t pretty. Allie can’t throw strikes, often bouncing pitches to the catcher. Can you imagine Doc putting him in a game with runners on like he did with Kenley yesterday? Santana can’t even stick as a middle reliever right now, and he’s the only one that pitched on the team this year. Again, the results were not pretty. Gonsolin is a starter and he isn’t throwing 100. When I saw him this Spring, he was sitting at 92. Like Allie, he has no MLB experience.
3) Kenley is still getting the job done. Out of the top 10 guys with 6 or more saves this year, 4 of them have blown one. 3 of them have more innings pitched than games played. Only one of the those 3 have converted all of their saves.
The blown save yesterday was more on Doc than it was on Kenley. Kenley pitched 3 days in a row, gets a day off, then Doc puts him in a crappy situation, unnecessarily, as Baez popped up the preceding batter. Every time you take out a guy to put in a pitcher coming in cold you are assuming risk. Doc is not learning that lesson.
I wonder if the Brewers bloggers are writing about how the Brewers need to find a replacement for Hader?
”I wonder if the Brewers bloggers are writing about how the Brewers need to find a replacement for Hader?”
Exactly, totally agree!
You make some good points, I agree that Jansen should be used like a closer and not a multi inning guy. He like most closers can be run on so give him a clean inning, at least until he gets in better form, but he has not been bad and looks thinner and healthy. He pitches better with regular work so you have to use him.
Sborz was with the team almost a week and Doc never used him so that tells me it’s not him. Baez is being used almost daily. Zach McCalister is already auditioning with mixed results for this year’s Morrow. Bud Norris is out there for a song if they want to take a flyer. Of the guys on the 40 man I like Santana for his pitch mix and movement but he needs to work a lot on his command. Schultz has potential and so does McCreery but I don’t see them in a closer role.
Kimbrel is looking more and more like he signs after the June draft and if he takes a pro rated 1 year deal and can work it out with Kenley could be great or could be a clubhouse problem, I don’t see them rolling the dice but he fits their MO as a vet rental and could shorten the game for this year’s team.
Eric Gagne had 52 saves in the first season he was converted to a reliever. Paplebon pitched 34 innings as a rookie and had 34 saves in his first season as a closer. I’m sure others have done well too.
On finding a replacement for Hader, well, actually it has started:
https://www.brewcrewball.com/2019/4/21/18510391/comeback-attempt-thwarted-josh-hader-allows-late-homer-milwaukee-brewers-lose-to-dodgers-6-5
Hader has given up 3 HR in 12 innings this year. There have even been suggestions that they should trade Hader. However, Hader is not the Closer for Milwaukee.
Eric Gagne played in parts of 3 seasons for the Dodgers before becoming their closer. On top of that, he had a nice offseason of steroids before assuming that role. None of the guys you mentioned have really any experience whatsoever, and they test for steroids now. If Kenley crashes and burns, they’ll cycle through a bunch of guys that are currently on the 25 man before they attempt any of the guys you mentioned. If they are seriously considering any of those options they would have the candidate(s) closing for AAA. That candidate would be Allie (18.00 ERA) and McAllister (8.44 ERA) as the only two guys with saves. So, probably not the best options.
Nothing in the article that you posted said they are looking for a replacement for Hader. Nor should it. You can’t talk about Cody being the best player in baseball, then say that Hader needs to be replaced because he gave up a homer to that player. Or, are you talking about the comments, I scrolled through them as well and didn’t see anything there either. But, I saw a bunch of comment about Shaw.
Are you just making stuff up?
Kenley is barely getting the job done.
In two weeks I want to say I was overly worried about JT’s start for no reason, but for now put me in the “very concerned” category. His timing seems off and it seems he has increased his swing and miss rate but maybe that’s just me hoping for a big hit and then being disappointed when he K’s.
Cody will cool off a bit and either JT, AJ or Corey must be ready tp carry the team for several weeks because right now it seems it’s Cody and Joc and not much else consistently.
Kenley’sbeen somewhat shakey in 2018 and so far in 2019. Hader blew to games just this year. If that continued into 2020, Brewer fans would be saying the same thing Dodger fans are saying now. Note, Jansen blew a save but also blew a hold against the Reds. Both times he was picked up by game winning home runs ( and hence his 2 wins).
There is plenty of time to see if Jansen can revert back to form. But once post season comes around we will need a lock down closer. Those games will be close with little margin for error.
Mark,
It’s possible that Kimbrel could be a step down from Kenley, but which Kenley are we talking about? Kenley has not done too well in the post season and seems to be trending downward. Many of us have picked up on this and there is nothing about him that is telling us he will ‘improve’ much. I don’t think Kimbrel is viewed as trending downward and he’s been almost as successful during the regular season and more successful in the post season than Kenley. Kenley is definitely on shaky ground.
The Dodgers are facing a very real problem that may come to bite them very soon if they are not prepared. I strongly doubt that they would pay for Kimbrel as long as Kenley is on the payroll. Luxury tax seems a no-no for them. I can’t see anyone stepping into the closer position both on the roster and in the minors for the team. Observing the history of the FO, they are usually not proactive regarding the pitchers and when they have tried to go outside of the system, they have failed more times than not. Maeda is not a closer by any stretch. The dude gives up too many HR’s. This is a general problem with our club. How could they throw a guy like Allie into the closer spot with the WS on the line? No way, Jose. If they want to make sure they’ve got someone who is going to have our backs, they have to pay and go outside their system. Kimbrel is the only choice, I believe, outside our system. What’s it going to be? I think they procrastinate and suffer the damage and wind up going with Kenley all the way.
Great win yesterday!!
Question for you guys, did you find thw celebration of Verdugo and Belli, a little to much? Like Belli didnt want to make to much crazines and verdugo kinda force him.
I really like verdugo, but he needs to show a little more respect.
Belli needed to get pumped up after that Home Run. The Kid got him into it. Respect for whom exactly?
The Dodgers can probably wait till the deadline and make a decision. None of the internal minor league options are realistic at this point, even if Gonsolin will be future star. You can’t make a midseason call up your closer in the playoffs. If some untested rookie with no MLB experience gives up the game losing homer in the 9th inning of the 7th game of the World Series then the FO would deserve all the criticism it would undoubtedly get.
Make a trade for Blake Treinen or Lou Trivino of the As. The As are losing and will probably be out of contention and willing to deal. Nick Anderson of the Marlins is another possibility, albeit an untested one.
This is why it’s generally unwise to make a long term deal with a reliever. It’s really hard to predict performance, and a consistently good reliever year after year in a Trevor Hoffman mold are exceedingly rare. A reliever will be good for year, or a month even, and then lose it and flame out. The Dodgers MO of throwing a bunch of stuff on the wall and seeing what sticks is actually not a bad strategy.
I’m calling it now. Schultz is gonna have a big 2nd half impact for us in the pen!
Ah, there are two of us that like Schultz. Welcome.
Everyone gets replaced sooner or later. Unless the Dodgers get lucky it will be later. Not that many around with the mindset to close.
“Dodgers at Dow Diamond” is new podcast from an ESPN affiliate that features the stories of Dodgers players and coaches from the Great Lakes minor team.
The first one is an interesting Q-and-A with 19-year-old prospect Miguel Vargas, from Cuba. Er, it may not be the first one. OK, well, it’s the first one I’m posting. Shrug.
https://soundcloud.com/dodgersatdowdiamond
I posted The Josiah Gray interview on April 20. I transcribed it to print. If folks would sign on to the link they will have an audio of the interviews with no need for a printed version.
There are currently seven interviews available.
See what happens when you don’t pay attention?
JCV – Seems it’s prevalent around the lg… Maybe the pitchers take care of it sooner or later.. If you did these things back when Drysdale was on the bump you’d need paramedics and a gurney!!!
Glad I didn’t see the game yesterday…Enjoyed a great Easter brunch with my kids…
It was a W, so I was happy…
Jansen concerns me too, but we have some youngsters that will turn a few heads… As MT would say “patience grasshopper”…
Too early for me to worry about Turner… First it was Seager and now it’s JT’s turn and he will punish NL SP.
I watched Belli last year as he painfully at times adjusted to NL pitching… Based on what I’ve seen this year I believe he will be among the elite for years to come…
Good day off for them… Bring on the Cubbies…
Before some of you lose your minds over this read the title.
Just sorta agreeing with you Oh Maniacal Magistrate!!!
Does anyone remember Turner being hit on the wrist or hand early in the season? They said it was not injured, but wondered if he is playing with a hurt hand. Would that affect his swing?
It could
Like I said “The sky is not falling” but the search should begin…
In the playoffs last year, Kimbrel had an 11.57 ERA in the ALDS, 4.50 against Houston in the ALCS and 4.15 in the World Series. Kelly and Eovaldi saved his a$$!
A number of baseball people do not think Kimbrel is “right.”
As I write this list, I think of the upside of this group and wonder about the possibilities as well as who gets the hook if we add another to the pen.
Jansen – This might be a blip on the radar, or assuming it gets worse, what do you do with him with a couple of guaranteed years reamining?
Kelly – See above
Baez – Is he the Puig of the pen? Do you finally say enough is enough and cut your losses?
Alexander – Can’t do much better than he’s already doing. He’s left handed, he’s not going anywhere.
Floro – Doing even better than Alexander and is probably our best reliever so far.
Stripling – Trade a solid starter for a setup guy? Seems like a no brainer, but what if he’s a right handed Andrew Miller out of the pen?
Urias – He becomes Maeda at the end of the year and they switch positions. As far as Maeda goes, see Stripling.
Ferguson – Another good reliever in the early going. We’ll need a second lefty when Urias goes back into the rotation.
Who goes?
I am not advocating getting rid of Kenley, and I don’t think the Dodgers can anyway. I just think they should be on the prowl for another closer.
I love the idea of Stripling and Urias as a R-L duo out of the pen.
Last year, Baez had a 3.33 ERA the first half with a 1.50 WHIP.
The second half was 2.45 ERA with a 0.896 WHIP.
Right now, he has a 4.61 ERA but a 0.878 WHIP which could mean he’s just been VERY unlucky.
On the other hand, Joe Kelly has a 9.90 ERA and a 1.90n WHIP. Ouch!
Joe has had some up and down months, but this is his worst in a month with over 3 IP.
Of course, the Dodgers aren’t going to tell anyone what they are doing… but they are doing some kind of VooDoo with him. Will it pay off? I have no clue!
I agree with your Joe Kelly observation. They’re probably trying to “fix” him and he needs to “trust the process”.
Same with your take on Baez. Baez had two bad games this month, yesterday included. Those were hardly his runs.
Other than that, he only allowed runs in one other game in April, against the Cards. There were a couple of grounders that went through the infield and a bases loaded HBP that barely nicked the batter, they had to go to replay on it. 3 ER in one inning. Baez has been better than his ERA suggests.
There is an outstanding article by Pedro Moura in The Athletic about Alex Verdugo and his transformation from “entitled punk” to “amazing teammate” (My words). In part he says:
The kid is scorching. Verdugo, 22, is cavorting with childlike abandon on the mountaintop of the world right now, dancing on the dugout before games, forcing the Dodgers to tinker with the rest of their lineup and insert him as much as possible. He is savoring every second of his first extended opportunity in the major leagues, celebrating not only his successes but his teammates’ too, rendering Yasiel Puig an increasingly distant memory. He is bringing an uncommon energy into the clubhouse, compelling many of his peers to marvel at the nature of youth and talent.
“He’s very unique,” Hernández said. “So far, we’ve welcomed it with open arms. He’s playing his ass off for us. Whatever it takes for us to win, as long as he’s not taking it to an extreme where it’s borderline disrespectful to anybody. He’s not doing any of that, so it’s been a lot a fun to watch so far.”
https://theathletic.com/937725/2019/04/22/alex-verdugos-uncommon-energy-on-and-off-the-field-is-rubbing-off-on-the-dodgers/
I like the kid. Brings a little life to the dugout. Remember Mickey Hatcher?? He was a Wild and Crazy Guy.
Mark.
I like all of your choices for Closer. But I really would like to see Urias as a Starter and Tony G. someday also. It is a tough choice really. If I had my druthers, I would hate being a closer. I would want the Starter job every time.
Hell yeah, they get scheduled days off, golf days and get paid more to boot. Verdugo is quickly becoming a favorite for me too. He’s already a pretty good interview. I also think it’s important for the Dodgers to have a good Mexican player for the locals to root for, even if he’s a wedo from Tucson, AZ.
Verdugo is Italian and Greek
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-clayton-kershaw-still-has/
What Kershaw still has!
This internet Moneyball era has brought so many fake stats analytics. It is still April and a very cold and wet one. Last night a saw 3 batters hit by the pitcher in the same inning. You people saw this last weekend. We should be glad Kenley is pitching after having heart surgery and doing it at an acceptable level. His location will come with summer as will be his 94m cutter.
Here’s the thing….Kenley always struggles in April. Don’t believe me see his career splits below by month (ERA / WHIP / Opponent OPS). Seems like every year people shit on Kenley early on and then he finds his cutter and it’s game over (literally). The fact that his velocity is where it needs to be bodes well for him moving forward. I think he will be fine.
April 3.21 / 1.102 / .633
May 2.49 /.854 / .518
June 1.66 / .736 / .450
July 1.76 / 8.35 / .496
Aug 2.41 / .903 / .523
Sep/Oct 1.82 / .878 / .509