Hyun-Jin Ryu looked much better last night as he pitched much differently than the power pitcher he used to be. The curve and changeup are his “go to” pitches with the fastball in the 89-90 MPH range and an occasional 91-92 MPH just for effect. He can be effective when pitching like this, but there is little margin for error. The way I see it, he is our Number 5. Lots of teams would love to have the Ryu who pitched last night as their Number 5.
Everyone’s Number 1 goes tonight, as again Clayton needs to step up… again! Brandon McCarthy is pitching like a Number 2. He is focused like I have never seen and has proven the half season with the Yankees was no fluke. Ladies and Gentlemen, as crazy as it seems, Brandon McCarthy may be the Dodgers #2. Thursday night, the Dodgers new Number 3 Starter gets his first start of the season. Julio Urias has only thrown 14 innings (15 K’s, 1.93 ERA) and I doubt they will let him go more than 5 or 6 in his first start. He proved he belonged last year. as he put up a rookie ERA that was a full run below Clayton Kershaw’s rookie numbers.
So the rotation is currently set at 1, 2, 3 and 5. leading to the question, who is Number 4? It appears that Rich Hill will go to the bullpen at least for a couple of weeks to help build up a callous on his blister finger. Alex Wood and Ross Stripling are too good in the pen to put them in the rotation, so that leaves the Number 4 spot up to someone in AAA. Now, the Dodgers may use Wood in the Starter Role, but I think that weakens the pen. I would not do it.
There are three possibilities at OKC:
- Trevor Oaks – 1.89 ERA in 19 IP, 16 Hits, 21 K’s, 5 BB, 0.89 WHIP – I like him a lot. He has a fastball that is 93-94 but can touch 96. He has excellent control but his secondary pitches are works in progress. He pitches deep into games having gone at least 7 innings on many occasions last year.
- Justin Masterson – 2.37 ERA in 19 IP, 10 Hits, 22 K’s, 7 BB, 0.89 WHIP – To top it off, he pitched 7 innings of 1 hit shutout baseball last night. He is 32 years old and once was a top talent until injuries. He has a “heavy” sinker and induces lots of ground balls. When healthy, this guy can be very, very good. He has pitched over 200 innings twice and 2011 was his best year as he put up a 3.21 ERA. To me, his career mirrors Brandon McCarthy. Maybe he too is a late bloomer.
- Jair Jurrjens – 3.78 ERA in 16.2 IP, 12 Hits, 11 K’s, 5 BB, 1.02 WHIP. He had a bad last outing which drove his ERA up. In 2009 he had a 2.60 ERA and in 2011, he had a 2.96 ERA. He was very good at one time before falling to the injury bug.
Jurrjens is currently behind Oaks and Masterson. None of the three are on the 40-man roster, but I would think Masterson has an opt-out! If I were in charge (FAZ has yet to appoint me). I would call up Masterson to fill the Number 4 spot and see what happens. Oaks time will come. Just my two cents.
What about Maeda? “You forgot Maeda!” I’m trying to!
I guess what really matters is what the starting rotation will look like for the playoffs. I can picture it looking like:
1. Kershaw
2. Hill
3. Urias
4. McCarthy
Ryu looked better last night, and Maeda could figure it out, so either one of those could fill in if the 3/4 falter.
As someone said in a comment recently, Hill has filthy stuff. He’s one of the best pitchers in the game when he’s pitching. Figure out the blisters and the team has a solid 1-2 punch.
I’m a little less concerned about SP than I am about holes in the offense. The Dodgers were terrible last year until the second half when they poured it on. I’m not so sure the talent is there for the team to do that again.
I like your work dodgerpatch. Wondering why you think there is less talent this year to do what they did last year when they did what they did last year with mostly the same talent they have this year?
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I realize that not all players and teams play at the same level each year, some better, some worse, but I don’t see this years team being a big drop off in talent from last year.
I hope you’re right, but I have a sense that Joc is who he is and will always be that guy, Toles and the platoon squad isn’t going to cut it in right, Puig is going to hit .260 with 12 homers, and…the big issue…Agon’s decline.
Well good points. I have always been suspect of Joc and was only surprised when he did much better at MLB level than I expected. I hope he returns to that level, or better again and I will be happy to be wrong about him. Toles is an enigma and I’m surprised by how well he did last year during the ascent and a bit disappointed by the start this year. I’m going to offer the opportunity to stick my foot in my mouth and say that Puig will exceed your projections and we will be happy with his play this year when we look back at it. I was with Mark on his very early call on Agon, which he took a lot of heat for. Now I can only hope that we will see more out of him because he is ours for the duration of his contract. Verdict in favor of Dodgerpatch.
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It is very difficult to win the division 5 times in a row and the Dodgers have never done it so odds are against based on your position and history. I am going to hope that the players don’t have a letdown season and that new arriving help will boost this team to another round of post season play (hoping, not expecting so that I may remain calm all season long).
Good analysis! I think Maeda gets one more start but he is on a short leash. He needs to pitch backwards like Ryu did last night, not rely so much on his fastball. His location of all his pitches must improve too. Wood is too valuable in the bullpen and is pitching better than Maeda right now but is not really stretched out to go more than 5. If a starter is called up the guy I would move off the 40 man is Gunkel unless they move Kazmir or Ethier to the 60 day DL. I am more than ready for Urias. Hill in the bullpen is interesting but he is a ways away from even doing that.
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Ryu pitched well enough for the win but the bats flattered Cain and the Giants pen. The Giants are really struggling but always get up for the Dodgers. There were weak at bats with bad takes and bad swings all night. If the ump gives the corner and the low breaking ball for strikes then adjust! Posey did a framing and game calling clinic and arguing the call does nothing (are you listening Grandal?) I want to see an aggressive mentality, put the ball in play and make the defense have to defend. And I don’t mean dribblers in the infield.
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What was up with guys out at second base ending both the 8th and 9th innings? I understand getting Taylor trying to get into scoring position but it took the bat out of Corey’s hands. Turner straying too far on a swing and miss shows that even he thought AGon would hit a pitch down the middle but he wiffed!
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The Dodgers need a spark, and luckily Kershaw goes tonight. They seem tight and pressing just a bit but are close to turning it around. Puig’s throw home to nail Belt and Grandal throwing out a runner of his own were big plays, but they could not get the offense going. Expect a mostly righty lineup tonight, and who plays LF, SVS or Eibner? Barnes probably behind the plate, Taylor at 2B and Kike in CF. Let’s hit some LHP!
Mark
I have to admit our pitching rotation looks a lot better, after the way, that Ryu pitched, last night.
I was watching his pitches, and he was still hitting 91, and 92, in the sixth inning.
You said that Ryu isn’t the same power pitcher, that he was before, but I thought he never threw above 92, when he pitched, before.
It wasn’t a fun game to watch, but Cain did, what he has been doing in his three previous starts, he caused our hitters, to have weak contact.
And he had only allowed one run, in his two previous starts, so it wasn’t as bad, as it looked.
It was also good to see Puig’s good throw to the plate, that saved a big run, and his usual good defense.
It looks like he is staying in games, better, and he had a nice hit, to right too.
It is going to take Urias a while to get up to major league speed, and to keep his pitch count down, especially in the early innings, but it is good to know, that he is starting in Thursday’s game.
And I do hope they have the answer to Hill’s problem, because that would make our rotation, even better.
MJ, Ryu used to hit 95 occasionally.
I was going to say the same thing. Usually in the second half of seasons, he would hit 94-95 occasionally, but usually worked at 93.
Mark and Hawkeye
I didn’t know that, so thank you both!
Jim Palmer said yesterday on TV that the average pitch count per inning was 16. something. 6 innings get you to 96. 16 doesn’t sound like a whole lot to me. With the 100 pitch count the norm throughout baseball, I guess 5 innings sounds good. The 100 pitch count is now the “complete game.” Pretty pathetic. Kids are raised now to pitch 100 pitches, not to complete games. Only the elite think in terms of 9 innings. Kershaw is one. Hitters are expert on extending counts. Foul balls. That is an aspect of hitting that didn’t exist before the 100 pitch count. It used to be that you fouled off a 2 strike pitch. Now, foul as many as you can. Even striking out after 9 pitches is a win for the hitter. I hate the giants. The only reason Ryu is getting praise is that it was better than before. Otherwise he was average. In spring training I saw him with a swing and miss fastball. What happened since Glendale? I hate the giants.
When we look back to a time when pitchers pitched more pitches per game and did it every fourth day we think of the pitchers that survived that routine. Some had long careers and we learned their names. Some had short careers and we don’t remember them.
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If we had stats that looked hundreds of pitchers that pitched in the era of 135 pitches every fourth day, I wonder how many had the tools but injury stopped their career before it got much of a start.
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Bobby, how do you know if you are on the right side of the pitch count argument?
Actually, a study quoted in Jeff Passan’s book “The Arm” showed that pitchers lost effectiveness and were more injury prone after 140 pitches. The 100 pitch count came from an article by Rany Jazayerli, a dermatologist who hypothesized that “pitcher abuse” started after 100 pitches without conducting a single experiment to confirm his hypothesis. I suspect that each pitcher is different but that most can throw over 100 without experiencing an increased risk of arm injury. In fact, the point of Passan’s book was that arm injuries are increasing even though pitch counts and innings pitched are down.
Passan’s conclusions are often wrong. Read his articles from previous years. He should be embarrassed.
Then why are injuries up and pitch counts down?
When the season gets closer to the end, I expect to see Oaks and Stewart in the rotation.
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Pitch counts could keep McCarthy, Urias, Ryu from pitching in September.
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Kazmir might be pitching in September and beyond.
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Wil Smith pushing to get a promotion from high A to AA and doing it at three positions–C, 3B, and 2B. He could be heir apparent at any of those three.
Will Smith is proving to be a very good selection. Just like Mitch White, the so-called experts thought that Smith was taken too high. Smith is a huge plus defensively behind the plate, and the only question was about how well he would hit. He is hitting very well at Rancho. He is currently on a 9 game hitting streak and is batting .406 with 3 HR over those 9 games. I stated a week or so ago that the Wilson/Murphy combo should go bye-bye at OKC, and Farmer should get promoted to AAA. That will open the door for Smith who is more than deserving of an early promotion. IMO, Wilson/Murphy is holding back both Farmer and Smith.
A few observations about last night:
1 – Ryu threw a lot of changeups. His fastball was 90 – 92 which is good but it didn’t have the movement that it used to have unless he elevated it. Maybe if he regains arm strength he will regain movement but it didn’t look too good last night. Giants’ broadcasters noted that the team’s scouting report on Ryu was that his fastball isn’t the same as it used to be.
2 – He rarely threw a slider or cutter last night. He threw more curves in the later innings and it was a good one.
3 – Dodger hitters are trying so hard to work the count that they frequently forgot the reason to work the count is to get a good pitch to hit. In the 1st inning, for example, with a man on and 2 out, Grandal faced Cain who, on the first pitch, threw a belt high fastball in at 89 MPH and Grandal just stared at it. Cain had nothing last night but the Dodgers wouldn’t swing at hittable pitches.
4 – Toles looked lost out there last night. And Kike looked totally overmatched against a very mediocre righty.
5 – Puig and Turner need baserunning lessons.
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On the premise of the article, I have confidence whenever Kershaw goes out there. McCarthy has been solid thus far. I can’t say that I have confidence in that yet as he has only made 4 starts, but I’m willing to be convinced.
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Hill is an enigma. Whether blisters or something else, if the team gets 20 starts and 100 innings out of him that will be a plus, but that may not be likely given his past and his season thus far. Kazmir may be finished in Blue – or maybe not but he can’t be relied upon. Ryu may develop arm strength or not but right now he looks iffy to me.
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Maeda wasn’t ever as good as we thought that he was. An interesting article in Dodgers’ Digest
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http://dodgersdigest.com/2017/04/24/kenta-maeda-also-has-a-fastball-problem-and-that-doesnt-change-his-2016/
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shows us that outside of last April and June, he hasn’t been a very good pitcher. His ERA last May was 5.04, in July was 4.61, in August 4.05 and September 4.03. I don’t really have confidence in Maeda either.
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So – Urias replaces Wood (who replaced Hill). Who replaces Maeda or Ryu? Does Hill do anything?
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And please no Masterson or Jurrjens. Jurrjens was another one of those pitchers who never was that good but had a good season or 2. I don’t recall him having a big injury. Masterson was never as good as his proponents hoped that he would be either. If we have to rely on either then the season has taken a left turn for sure.
I absolutely agree with your point #3. I think Joc does too much of this as well. Sometimes you may get one look a game at that pitch. I would like to see a little more aggressive approach.
I might be okay if Hill goes 100 IP, because they will probably be quality. I think I estimated between 120-132. As long as Hill is able to go 12-14 in the NLDS, NLCS, and WS we should be fine.
If Maeda does not improve, then Stripling would be in a good spot to start for him. Wood needs to stay in the pen. Stewart is scheduled to pitch competitively around May 20, and Hill should be back before then. Masterson and Jurrjens are insurance pitchers. They are an upgrade over Bud Norris, but they are not expected to be fixtures. Ryu has earned at least another start, and I will not jinx Maeda with any short leash comments (I guess I just did), but one or the other is going to be in the rotation until Stewart is available, or Oaks is called up. Hill is still throwing, so his rehab starts should be minimal, and he probably will get bullpen assignments until the callous builds up. This is where Masterson and Jurrjens may get a look.
Good points dodgerrick. I usually enjoy reading your posts as they are well thought out, and your independent thinking resonates with me.
Watching the Dodger hitters ineptitude last night was frustrating.
It seems to me (bright baseball minds on this sight can provide the stats that say yea or ney)
that the inability to hit LH pitching or with RISP goes hand in hand with games like last night where there is a ‘hitting malaise’, when the whole team can’t hit to save their lives.
The above two lack of hitting stats are often sited, but the Dodgers seem to have a lot of games where the bats are silent where good pitching is not necessarily the reason. Last night seemed to be a case in point.
He’s coming!!
MLB Trade Rumors is reporting Dodgers calling up Bellinger!!!
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Jeez, they updated the link above and say Bellinger will provide a “right-handed” hitting option at first. So maybe they don’t know what they are talking about.
OK, they corrected it. Maybe they do know what they are talking about.
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I am in the camp of worrying about the hitting, I think our pitching is strong with lots of options. Looking forward to seeing if Bellinger can make a difference.
And who was that guy who said Cody would be up soon?
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Do you have the audacity, to doubt the veracity of a man of my capacity?
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😉
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Look, if you can play, you can play – screw the $$$$$
Cody Freaking Bellinger!
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I have not been this excited about a prospect since Corey Seager and Julio Urias and before that…. (long time)…. it was Clayton Kershaw.
Mark
I just saw the news, I bet your pretty excited!
It will be fun to see what he can do!
Careful MJ, Toles might be the one making room for him.
Bum
I have no problem with that, but I don’t think that is happening, right now.
I saw he would be alternating, between left, and centerfields.
But I think these platoons, kill us too!
Mark
And I do remember you called this!
Well, I will concede…I was wrong. I did not think they would bring him up before June to make sure he would not be a Super Two. It will still go on service time, so Cody may go back, but I am hoping he takes off and the Dodgers just have to face 4 years of arbitration instead of 3. It would be great to see him take off like Kris Bryant. He should not be platooned. Let him play. He can go between LF, CF, and 1B. He just needs to play.
Like Corey, he needs to be in the lineup every day.
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This kid is unfazed – Like Corey, he expects a lot of himself.
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I ma very concerned about Gonzo – his decline may be steeper than we think.
Put Bellinger in CF. we have another outfielder in AAA batting over 300.
Idahoal
Do you think we might see a ball in McCovey Cove soon, by a Dodger!
I think I”ll have to go Friday now to see Cody’s first game at home
I see that the Jeb Bush/Derek Jeter Group won the rights to buy the Marlins for $1.3 Billion.
Maybe they will take Adrian off the Dodgers hands.
OKC followed up yesterday’s 3-0 2 hit shutout with a 4 hit shutout today. After Masterson pitched 7 shutout innings, Jurrjens followed up with 6 shutout innings today. Patrick Schuster (1 IP) and Layne Somsen (2 IP) finished the game with no hits and only 1 walk. Willie Calhoun had three hits including his 1st AAA HR. Dickson and Verdugo had two hits each with Dickson getting his 6th HR. Both Calhoun and Dickson had doubles as well. Calhoun has regained his stroke and his now at .333/.362/.470/.832 (only 6K). Dickson is at .328/.357/.672/1.029 (#3 in HR in PCL). Verdugo is at .369/.425/.492/.917 (only 8 K). The Dodgers do indeed have some solid prospects.
I still want Ian Happ.
The Cubs want pitching. Would you give up Alvarez for him?
After Masterson pitched 7 shutout innings, Jurrjens followed up with 6 shutout innings today.
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Maybe the Cubs would be interested in these two plus Hatcher of course.
Put down the crack pipe!
😉
I am not the one hyping those two.
Yes.
Is is true that Verdugo has a horrible avg vs. lefties?
No. He has only 9 plate appearances this year, so you cannot draw any conclusions for 2017. In 2016 at Tulsa in 118 PA he was .255/.314/.377/.691. In 2015 at Rancho in 131 PA he was .355/.397/.421/.818 (better splits than against RHP). In 2014 at short season Ogden in 50 PA he was .295/.402/.423/.825.
Just like at the ML level there are there are more RHP in the minors. Since Verdugo is playing at 3-5 years younger than the average age player at each location he is seeing older and undoubtedly more experienced LHP and is more than holding his own. Will he be prolific against LHP, probably not, but he has to play against them to get the experience. But he is not horrible against LHP.
That’s EXACTLY what I wanted to hear. These numbers strengthen my belief that Verdugo should soon take over in CF and Joc should be dealt for a bigger need
I don’t know anyone who thinks he can play CF on a full-time basis. He simply doesn’t have the speed.
I like what Brock Stewart tweeted:
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Hey World, if ya don’t know about him… you’re gonna find out reeeaaalll soon.
Looks like Gunkel is the odd man out (DFA’d)
Thank goodness. Gunkel was this year’s Tepisch.
I wonder why Roberts keeps on hitting Puig fourth, against lefties.
Puig isn’t even hitting above 120 against lefties this year, and he has had reverse splits, against lefties, in his career.
And he has had quite a few at bats, against lefties this year, because we face so many more lefties, then most teams.
His reverse splits are very close though. He still hits LH pitching than most…. except this year, but that’s a small sampling.
Mark
Ok!
He is in the starting lineup hitting 8th and playing LF.
Very, very interesting that the Dodgers said Bellinger will be playing LF/CF, and nary a mention of 1B.
Don’t ask me. I was 1,000,000% wrong about Bellinger even coming up.
He might go back to OK when Joc returns, otherwise I think 1B would have been included. Interesting they brought him up to face a lefty for his first game.
A-Gon has a long leash and deep respect – he has earned it. But, if he can’t turn his ship around… and I don’t think he can, he will be an expensive pinch hitter and you can’t keep both him and Utley.
I’m all for Bellinger being up if he’s playing every day. There’s no need to start his clock otherwise. Like Mark, I’m more worried about Gonzalez than anyone else on the team. Toles is getting himself out on the same pitch which is a breaking ball down and in. Grandal should never hit cleanup. Just shows how the injuries have messed with the lineup.
Hawkeye
Do you think Toles will figure that out, and adjust?
Or Turner Ward might see that, and help him out?
A few games ago he layed off the pitch. It was a nice take that got him in a 2-2 count. I believe Orel even mentioned it. Then two pitches later he K’d on the same pitch.
I believe he will figure it out MJ. I also think he’s too young to get tagged as a platoon player. The opportunity Bellinger is getting may send Toles down at some point to work on those things.
I see TT finally got a hit at OKC but went 0-5 with 4 K’s. Tonight. Rios had another big night for Tulsa.
Hey AC,
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Would you trade Alvarez for Happ?
Yes I would. I really like Happ’s approach to the game. He is business-like and has shown an ability to adjust. He is a baseball player. Does that remind you of someone?
Seager! I would do it too. Some think Happ can’t stay at 2B – that he will end up in LF.
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Keepers:
1B – Bellinger
SS – Seager
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That’s it!
He is not a defensive whiz, but neither is Daniel Murphy; not that Happ can hit with Murphy yet. But there was nothing in Murphy’s past to indicate what he would do last year. The most HR he had at any level was 15 until last year. Happ could surpass 20 this year.
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Happ may end up in LF, but at 22, he still has time to improve defensively enough to stick (but not star or GG). He might just be worth the patience.
I think FAZ made a mistake with Seager. He was ready but they traded for Rollins. They moved quicker with Urias and now Bellinger. Like Clayton, these guys are special talents.
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Verdugo could be – he’s very young for his age. 😉
Here’s what Jim Bowden said in February:
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““Here is where it gets tricky. To be conservative, the right move would be for Bellinger to start the year in Triple-A and be ready in case [Adrian] Gonzalez gets hurt in the middle of the season or once rosters expand in September. However, Bellinger’s bat is ready now — he’s arguably the Dodgers’ best hitter after Corey Seager.
I am not going to set any expectations for Cody, especially high ones. Even most of the greats who went on to HOF carrers often had rough starts. Even if he is spectacular tonight, and no one should expect that, MLB pitchers will adjust to him quickly. His potential greatness will shine through in how fast he makes his own adjustments. Nonetheless, I’m wishing him to have great success and be a fan favorite for years to come.
Feeling like all the pressure is on Kershaw in the 3rd. We can’t keep riding this guy. We gotta pull our head out our ass and start hitting. Somebody, ANYBODY, start a darn rally!!! Roberts must be dying inside…
So, Here’s what I purpose:
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We trade Alvarez for Happ.
Pederson and Toles for Lorenzo Cain.
That is certainly doable. I wouldn’t squawk at that. You have to give to get. KC is quickly unraveling and will need to unload some of their walk year guys; Cain, Moustakas, Hosmer…They may like two controllable OF including a strong defensive CF to patrol the canyon called Kauffman Stadium. Cain is a good teammate, and has a WS ring. I have family in KC, and they are not happy right now.
In addition to OKC, Great Lakes also dialed up a shutout – 9-0. Devin Smeltzer, a 21 year old 2016 5th round draft pick out of San Jacinto College North in Texas, pitched 6 innings with 0 runs, 2 hits, 0 walks, and 8K. He threw 66 pitches, averaging 11 pitches per inning with 8 K…pretty impressive. Offensively, Carlos Rincon and Mitch Hansen had 3 hits each. Brandon Davis continued solid hitting with 2 additional hits including his 2nd HR. Oneal Cruz, Cody Thomas, and Keibert Ruiz also had 2 hits each. The Loons were 8-17 RISP.
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The Tulsa Drillers lost 3-2 today, Isaac Anderson started his 4th game and the results were not pretty again. 4.1 IP, 3R (2 ER), 5 H, 1 BB, and 3K. Anderson may be working on a ticket to Rancho with Buehler or White getting to Tulsa. Tim Shibuya 3.2 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 4K, and Yaisel Sierra with 1 IP, 0 R, 0 H, and 2 K both pitched well. Offensively, Edwin Rios and Matt Beatty had 3 hits each. Rios is now batting .386
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Grant Dayton started for Rancho this evening, went one inning, and struck out all three batters he faced. He is getting very close. I will see if I can include additional comments.
Good news about Dayton. His absence is huge.
I am not near a TV so I did not see Kershaw’s fly ball with the bases loaded. With Bellinger in the game, wouldn’t it have made more sense for Toles to run for Gonzalez, or was the fly ball not deep enough to get anyone in?
It was pretty shallow.
Bellinger wearing #35. He got Bob Welch’s number.
Baez vs their 2-3-4? Not thrilled with this decision. I wonder if Clayton’s leg tightened up on him.
Additional story lines in the RC Quake 9-1 win over the San Jose Giants. Dennis Santana threw another big game. 6IP, 1 R, 6 H, 0 BB, and 7 K (73 pitches) for the win. His ERA is now 1.50. Offensively Ibandel Isabel had three hits including his 6th HR. Yusniel, Luke Raley, and Drew Jackson had two hits apiece. DJ Peters got 3 RBI.
Santana made the Midwest League All-Star team last year. Despite a poor record, he was very good.
Good win although Kenley made hard work of it.
Grandal did a great job, and Mark, Pitch Framing IS a thing like you said.
He got Kenley out of a hole there.
I know it’s early, but I don’t see the Giants being a danger this season. Crawford left the game with s groin problem to add to their woes.
They just don’t have enough offense to compete.
I’m a big believer in the philosophy “if you are good enough, you are old enough”, so good to see Belinger up.
People who say it’s not are just delusional. I wish it wasn’t, but it is! I would love to go to electronic balls and strikes.