This is a Different Logan Forsythe

Posted By on February 7, 2017

If you are expecting the Logan Forsythe of 2015 or 2016 to show up for the Dodgers, you may be shocked to know that I do not think he will be that guy again.  In 2015, Logan Forsythe hit .281 with a .359 OB% and a .804 OPS.  He followed that up with .264/.333/.778 in 2016.  Don’t expect those kinds of numbers again!

Actually, I think he will do even better in 2017!  Is that based upon wishful thinking?  Of course… among other things.  Other things, being (1) more experience, (2) a better team and (3) something to really play for (a Championship). Logan Forsythe has shown that he is a student of the game – a real gamer – whom I expect to get even better than he currently is.  I see Logan Forsythe as a Ben Zobrist-type player –Not everything he does shows up in the boxscore.

For the record, I see Logan Forsythe as being the Dodger’s Sparkplug!  I see him putting up a BA of .270-.290 and an OB% of .350+.  I don;t think you will see 20 HR from him – something more like 12 would be what I would expect.  The Dodgers need for him to get on base and I believe he can cut down on his swing to get a higher BA and OB%.  He was on a bad team last year and took some shots (swinging for the fences) that I doubt he would do on this team.  I am sure Dave Roberts has his ear – he’s not a burner, but he’s solid and I look for big things from him at 2B this year.

Last year, he had Kevin Kiermaier (.246),  Brad Miller (.243) and Logan Morrison (.238) hitting behind him.  This year, he could have Andre Ethier, Corey Seager, Joc Pederson or Yasiel Puig in that spot.   Maybe even Justin Turner at times.  That alone should make him a better hitter.  You can look at his stats, but there are no stats with him hitting in the Dodgers lineup.

Then there are the intangibles…

Other Stuff:

  • I don’t believe in the Chris Carter rumors, unless they just want to use him as a pinch hitter.
  • Then, there is always the possibility of trading some vet pitching and hitting – now or in Spring Training or at the deadline.
  • 8 Days Until Spring Training!
  • Today’s photo is Derek Lowe signing an autograph for my son in Vero Beach.

UPDATE:

ESPN OnLine Rated each Teams Offseasons and the Dodgers tied with the best offseason with an A with the White Sox and Red Sox.  The Cub and the Giants were rated a B- and if you wonder why they did not sign Romo (other than the fact he wanted to come home to LA) read this:

The Giants’ top priority was to land one of the top three closers on the market, and they got Melancon for four years and $62 million. The problem with the contract they gave Melancon is that it tapped out their budget, so they couldn’t address other team needs, including an upgrade in left field and the bullpen handing off to Melancon.

This article has 15 Comments

  1. On the last post: I read that 162 innings is the minimum a pitcher must pitch to qualify for the ERA title. That is probably the most realistic mark for today’s starters. Except for the horses like Kershaw, Cueto, Verlander. I guess the goal is to find more of those guys. But 162 innings is about all we can expect today. 30 starts X 6 innings each about gets us there. On Forsythe: He’s a capable guy. I hope expectations don’t grind him down. Roberts will have to take care of that. We tend to forget how great a manager he was and is. He is probably our greatest asset.

  3. I live in Northern California. The Giants made no secret that they weren’t going to resign any of their former bullpen mainstays (Casilla, Romo or Lopez). Casilla is now with the A’s; Lopez has allegedly retired.
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    There was never a chance that they would resign Romo – they didn’t try and it was the team’s opinion that after last year’s bullpen debacle that they wanted to tear the pen down and start over.
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    http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2016/10/12/giants-bullpen-nlds-meltdown-cubs-rally/91932654/
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    I am hopeful that Forsyth is just the kind of player that the Dodgers need. I also believe that he will have a solid season and improve the infield and lineup.
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    Romo, at this point in his career has an 86 MPH fastball and throws his slider 60%+ of the time. He has become essentially a right-handed specialist. I expect that Roberts will not use him as an 8th inning guy against all comers but against righty hitters, especially against hitter who don’t hit breaking balls well.

    1. While I also live in Northern California, I have to admit I do not read much about the Giants. But based on my conversations with all of the Giant fans I speak with regularly , most go along with what Dodgerrick said. The Giants bullpen just got a big FAIL from the fans, and that falls on Casilla/Romo/Lopez. If you ask them, they did not get to the WS because of Casilla/Romo/Lopez. But if you pin them down, almost all would rather have Romo over Corey Gearrin, with a healthy number favoring Romo over George Kontos & Derek Law. The Giants bullpen is still a big question mark. Like LAD they do not have a clear 8th inning setup; probably Wiil Smith (L), but maybe Josh Osich (L) or Hunter Strickland (R) from time to time. I like Dodger options much more. With Melancon (R) as closer, the remaining members should be Gearin (R), Kontos (R), Law (R), Strickland (R), Smith (L), and Osich (L). Because they have three SP projected at 200IP, they really only need 7 in the pen. LAD will probably go 8 in the pen, but should be much better than SF. Admittedly, the Dodgers will be more dependent on a strong pen, so it better be.
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      I agree with Dodgerrick that Romo will best be used as a situational RHRP. Probably used similarly as JP was from the left side. With 8 in the pen, they can afford to be more situational than other teams. He will probably get more chances because there is more RH hitting in MLB. I do look forward to watching Romo come in to face Goldschmidt/Posey/Pence, because you know he is.

    1. Interesting read. Berg hints that the Giants #5 will be between Cain and Tyler Beede. Beede is not on the 40 man, and I doubt they will bring him up with Ty Blach (L), and Chris Stratton (R), and Clayton Blackburn (R) ready to take the #5 if Cain cannot. If the Giants get to #5 when facing the Dodgers, I look for Ty Blach to get the start because he is LH.
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      I also found it interesting that Berg did not mention John Lackey as #4 SP. He may not be an Ace, but he had a good 2016, and he is not that old that he cannot repeat. With Montgomery and Anderson as #5 & #6, that is as deep as they go. Last year they rode 5 starting pitchers to the WS. Will that repeat again? No injuries? I am guessing no, but it is a guess.
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      I know a lot of fans do not like it when some of us refer to depth, but if you look at the pitching rosters of the contenders, none have the depth LA has. I would have rated Mets as #1, and they do have pretty good depth. With Gsellman & Lugo they have good options if any of the top guys remain hurt. Scherzer & Roark will be as strong as any #1 & #2, but the Nats will be hurting if Strasburg goes down again, or if Gio continues to slip. After Ross, who’s next? The Cubs admit they are lacking deep SP, and have nobody really in the pipeline. The same with SF. The Cardinals may have numbers, but unless Wainwright comes back they really do not have that Ace. And they are relying on Lynn and Wacha to big pitchers this year. The Dodgers won 91 games last year with depth. No legit #2, and Clayton out 2 months. If Hill stays healthy, he is a legit #2; and if Kershaw is healthy all year, I am guessing he wins more than 12. They had 23 pitchers win games, and of those 91 games, 15 pitchers and 73 of those wins are still on the roster. The biggest loss will be Blanton out of the pen. But if neither Stripling, Stewart or Wood make the rotation, one or two of those will be the 2017 version as long reliever out of the pen.
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      I am assuming that Berg is evaluating the SP based on the projected 1-5. I understand why the Dodgers are placed where they are. Their value is in the number of pitchers that can/will start, because nobody can predict right now who their 5 will be, and no team will utilize as many starters. I think they proved last year that they can win with depth, even if some do not consider it quality depth.

  7. Two players a lot of fans are down on are Pedro Baez and Chris Hatcher. Both have very live arms and can throw 97-99 MPH. Sometimes the light just goes on and these guys develop another pitch… or not… or get some movement… or not! At any rate, I am sure that the Dodgers are working and will be working in Spring Training with the Human Rain Delay on pitching faster. If I were the Dodgers, I would tell Baez that he just has to throw what Grandal says – get on the mound and pitch! Mark Buehrle, who was almost a “quick-pitch artist” said that he never shook off the catcher. Baez just needs to pitch quick. Quit thinking and throw the damn ball!

    1. Hatcher simply lacks control. I have seen him pitch often enough and he either lacks confidence in his stuff and nibbles or he just can’t get it to go where he wants it to. I agree that his stuff is good enough but if he can’t put it where he wants to then it doesn’t help.
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      As for Baez (aka “El Gasolino”), his fastball is straight and he doesn’t have good secondary pitches. He has potential, as does Hatcher but he also makes me nervous. He allowed 11 HR in 74 innings last year for heaven’s sake and has allowed 18 HR in 149 innings in his career. These are not good numbers, especially for a short reliever. (By comparison Kershaw gave up 8 HR in 149 innings last year; Jansen gave up 4 in 68 innings last year.)

  8. The Dodgers are 10-12 deep in starting pitching which could cause them to move way up in the rotation rankings by year end… especially if other teams have injuries and you know they will!

    1. I don’t put stock in any of that.
      I don’t rely on sabermetrics.
      I don’t rely on projections.
      I think they are all tools.
      I rely on information and commons sense… which is not so common.
      Stats are as wrong as cynical fans.
      I trust my eyes and uncommon sense!

      The Dodgers are in the hunt! That’s my opinion.

    2. 91 might be low, but remember the Cubs used the same starting 5 SP all year; Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey, and Hammel. No injuries to their starting rotation. Montgomery or Anderson or going to replace Hammel, and neither figure to duplicate what Hammel produced. Wade Davis is good, but will his arm hold up? He is not Chapman, but the Cubs were able to get to August without him. Schwarber was the only significant injury, and while his bat is outstanding, he leaves a lot to desired in the field. Defensively the Cubs are much better with Zobrist in LF and Baez at 2B, but now Maddon is going to have to rotate all three.
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      Dexter Fowler moves to the Cardinals. That both weakens the Cubs and strengthens the Cards. I think the Cubs will miss Fowler quite a bit. Almora should be good, but he will not be the sparkplug that Dexter was. Soler was a good RH bat off the bench, and I still do not expect that much from Heyward outside of that tremendous defense. I think their pitchers are going to miss David Ross. I know Contreras can hit (but so can Schwarber). Can he handle a veteran pitching staff? They already know Montero is not the answer, and there is nobody else in the pipeline. I fully expect Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, and Zobrist to continue to be solid if not outstanding.
      .
      So does Schwarber, Almora, Anderson, and Davis make up for the loss of Fowler, Chapman, Ross, Soler, Hammel, and Travis Wood? Will they continue to play without injuries? I think not for both. Will the Cardinals and Pirates be better? I would say yes. Will Lackey continue to pitch okay as a #4? That is going to be a very big question that will need to be answered. I think their top 3 SP are comparable to Cleveland and Bosox. But #4 and #5 are huge guesses. So maybe more than 91, but not approaching 103.

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