On August 12, 1994, the MLB Players walked off and the player strike began. The strike ended 232 days later on April 2, 1995, making it the longest such stoppage in MLB history. Who is hurting? The fans. The same people they (both sides) are trying to keep coming to games, parking, and buying concessions and souvenirs.
It is hard to measure attendance due to the pandemic precautions from both the cities and patrons, but only the Dodgers exceeded 2.8MM. The next closest market was Atlanta at 2.3MM. That is a 500,000 difference in attendance. Only six teams exceed 2.0MM in attendance: LAD, Atlanta, San Diego, St. Louis, Texas, and Houston. The bottom three are as expected: Tampa Bay, Oakland and Miami. Miami did not get 650,000 in attendance.
For those interested, here is a chart on the teams’ attendance for 2021.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/attendance
Of course the pandemic was a significant factor in attendance. But at the same time, families found other events to partake, while learning they do not need a baseball game for entertainment as much as teams would hope.
But that is okay, because the largest revenue source for MLB teams is TV revenue. However, something is happening in this venue as well.
While the 29 domestic regional sports networks (RSN) saw a slight increase in TV households watching Major League Baseball at the All-Star break, compared to the last full season in 2019, the league is seeing a double-digit drop.
As of July 19, according to Nielsen Media the designated media area (DMA) TV household average for the league was 1,836,749 compared to the 60-game shortened 2020 season average of 1,804,540, a 2% increase.
However when compared to 2019, the last full 162 game season, the 29 RSNs measured by Nielsen saw a drop of 12%. What is concerning for the league is all RSNs saw a drop compared to 2019, except for the Tigers (+40%), Padres (+71%), A’s (+24%), Giants (+54%), Dodgers (+49%), and Chicago White Sox (+123%). And without the White Sox dramatic increase, decline for the league compared to 2019 would assuredly be lower still.
The decrease has been coming for some time. Let’s compare TV viewership for the just completed WS to 2003:
| MLB SEASON | 2003 | 2021 |
| WORLD SERIES RATINGS | 12.8 | 6.5 |
| WS AVERAGE VIEWS (MILLIONS) | 25.47 | 11.75 |
Except for a few markets, families are turning off MLB as a form of entertainment. So why are the two parties playing Russian Roulette with the game in December 2021. Because billionaires and millionaires are greedy. The owners and the Union are far apart in their offers. Apparently the players are not satisfied with their super duper superstars earning $300MM. Today, there is one player with a $426MM commitment (Mike Trout), and eight players with commitments between $300MM to $365MM. The next tier includes 12 current contracts between $200MM and $300MM. These do not include the just expired Albert Pujols, or retired A-Rod and Prince Fielder, all who earned in excess of $200MM. After the 1998 season, Kevin Brown signed the first $100MM contract. Since that contract, and additional 104 players have inked contracts in excess of $100MM. Sure doesn’t sound like MLB is suffering too much.
The players are saying that the system is broken. And yet it was a team from Arlington, Texas (okay Dallas), that spent $500MM (A HALF BILLION) on two players: Corey Seager ($325MM) and Marcus Semien ($175MM). But that wasn’t enough. They spent another $56MM for a pitcher with a career ERA of 4.59 and $5.9MM on a reserve OF. Well, maybe Kole Calhoun will start for Texas. For a team that was 60-102 in 2021, Seager, Semien, Gray, and Calhoun are not going to put lipstick on this pig.
The Tigers (also not from LAD or NYY) spent $217MM on Javy Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez. The Mets gave $130MM to a 37-year-old pitcher. The Blue Jays gave $110 million to Kevin Gausman, a pitcher turning 31 with a career ERA+ of 105, or just above average. The Mariners spent $115MM on a pitcher, Robbie Ray, with one good year (albeit it was a very good year) The Marlins—the Marlins!—gave Avisaíl García $53 million. The Dodgers re-signed one of their own committing $60MM to CT3, signed a hope and a prayer pitcher for $8.5MM (Andrew Heaney), and another $7MM for a journeyman reliever (Daniel Hudson). They lost their two top FA (Seager and Scherzer), one of their top relievers (Corey Knebel), while others are still mulling offers (KJ and Joe Kelly). And then there are their two injury question marks, Clayton Kershaw and Danny Duffy.
Clubs have spent more than $1.6 billion on free agents already this winter, a number that swells past the $2.1 billion mark when you factor in extensions for players, including Wander Franco ($182 million), José Berríos ($131 million), Byron Buxton ($100 million) and Sandy Alcantara ($56 million). And there are more to come. The system does not seem to be broke.
There does not seem to be much of an urgency on either side. Up to this point, there have been zero meaningful negotiations. Simply posturing. The owners have called for a lockout so they can increase the urgency. HOW ABOUT NEGOTIATING IN EARNEST. The players are no better. Mark Feinsand of MLB shared some recent comments from a pair of veteran players would seem to back up that sentiment.
“We have three months to really hash this out, and I don’t fear us not starting on time or anything like that,” National League Most Valuable Player Bryce Harper told Philadelphia’s WIP radio on Nov. 19.
“The cool thing is, if something does happen, we can always sign a year extension of what we had this year. That’s always possible.”
Braves pitcher Charlie Morton took it a step further, telling The Athletic last week that the Dec. 1 CBA expiration doesn’t represent a true deadline to get a deal done.
“[A] lot of the time, especially in baseball, you have these deadlines that aren’t necessarily hard deadlines, that aren’t precursors to something better or worse,” Morton said. “But they’re there just to kind of give both sides a little sense of urgency. So no, I don’t necessarily think that the deadlines [mean that much]. This [Dec. 1] deadline is for the lockout, but obviously you hope you have something done Jan. 1. If not, then you hope you have something done certainly by the time pitchers and catchers are supposed to report, because then that’s going to start to affect things to a severe degree.
“Really, most players’ offseasons aren’t going to change because of this [Dec. 1 deadline].”
It’s hard to see where the compromise is on issues that are more philosophical than structural. To bridge philosophical differences, you need the pressure of the possibility of losing time on the field.
Why have a deadline if it is meaningless? Put the urgency into the deadline to spur negotiations.
Points of Discussion between MLB and MLBPA
MINIMUM SALARIES:
Salaries for the players have dropped three seasons in a row and did so dramatically in 2020 when the pandemic created a shortened 60 game season. The league has said that this shift is due to placing more value on younger players as better data by way of analytics and scouting reduced risk on untried talent. The economic component is that the majority of these players are only required to be paid the league minimum and are under control for three additional years through salary arbitration. The league sees this as part of the “free market” system in place, although changes to the Luxury Tax system and hard slot values for draft bonuses out of the last two labor deals have increasingly inched Major League Baseball into a pseudo-salary hard cap. As part of the MLBPA’s proposals in the current round of negotiations is an increase in the minimum salary.
The Union steadfastly insists that what they are looking for is for the benefit of the younger players. Tell that to Max Scherzer, who ironically is one of eight MLB Players on MLBPA Executive Committee as an Associate Player Representative.
Both sides agree the minimum salary needs a boost this time around, too. From 2014 to 2021 the minimum baseball salary has grown less than the rate of inflation. Accounting for inflation, players making the minimum were paid more in 2014 ($584,000) than in 2021 ($570,500). It is worth noting that the NHL minimum salary is 31% greater than MLB.
Potential compromise in raising the minimum salary – If you apply the 47% boost given in the 1990 lockout settlement, the MLB minimum would rise to $839,000.
If only this negotiation were as easy as just addressing the minimum salary.
The players also want to talk about changing what owners see as three pillars of recent CBAs: salary arbitration, free agency, and revenue sharing among owners.
SALARY ARBITRATION:
Since the inception of the MLBPA, two core pieces have been in place that altered not only baseball but professional sports as a whole: salary arbitration and free agency. The radical changes that the league is proposing to the players would upend both aspects.
The league proposed to eliminate salary arbitration in favor of a predetermined pool of money (initially proposed to be $1Billion) to be distributed to players. There would be no change in the three years of service time. The league believes that the salary arbitration system creates acrimony between the players and clubs given that clubs offer a salary figure for the following season lower than the player seeks. The owners are promoting salaries be based primarily on award recognition and career Fangraphs WAR (fWAR), saying the change would address MLBPA’s concerns about paying younger players based on value. Players currently eligible for arbitration under the expired CBA would be grandfathered and have the choice of salary arbitration or the new system.
To the players, at its core, the owners’ proposal to replace salary arbitration places further restrictions on a player’s ability to negotiate for their salary. After slotted bonuses for the amateur and international draft picks, if the change were accepted it would leave only free agency as a way for players and their agents to negotiate salaries. The players are trying to claw back from the tightening restrictions around salaries that have occurred over the last two labor deals. Here, the league is seeking another form of constraint thus outlining how far apart the sides are philosophically on matters of economics.
The players are proposing to lower the eligibility to two years of major league service, its level from 1974 through 1986, when it increased to three years. In the expired agreement, it was three years plus the top 22% by service time of players with at least two years but less than three years. Thus the genesis of Super Two status. The players believe that owners are manipulating service time to get that extra year. Come On!! The owners are not really doing that are they??
FREE AGENCY:
MLB has proposed to change the system from six years to eligibility at 29.5. In their world, this will eliminate the need for service manipulation. Setting the free agency qualifying age at 29.5 would have an adverse effect on many of the game’s top stars. It’s not uncommon for the sport’s brightest young talents to reach the big leagues in their early-20’s in spite of the existing service time structure. Those players will often reach free agency before turning 29, setting them up well to land lengthy mega-deals. For reference, three of the top four players on MLBTR’s most recent Free Agent Power Rankings — Carlos Correa, Corey Seager and Trevor Story — wouldn’t be eligible for free agency this offseason if it were only granted for players 29.5 and older. Contrarily, Yankees star Aaron Judge — whose free agency timeline would’ve accelerated from next offseason to this winter if eligibility were set at 29.5 years — as an example of a player who would stand to benefit from such a change.
MLBPA proposed to keep the existing system for 2022-23 offseason, then would for 2023-24 and 2024-25 offseasons make eligibility six years of service or five years of service and age 30.5, whichever comes earlier, and then for 2025-26 offseason and later, six years of service or five years of service and age 29.5, whichever comes earlier.
FREE AGENT DRAFT PICK COMPENSATION:
MLBPA has been requesting this as they believe it is a deterrent for teams to sign free agents with a qualifying offer. As of now, this does not seem to be much of a sticking point for MLB. Apparently they are willing to agree to eliminate this provision.
SERVICE TIME:
As indicated above, the union sees the clubs in the league holding down major league talent in the minors as a way of service clock manipulation that gains them an additional year of club control before a player would enter free agency. The MLBPA has filed grievances around these actions. Notably, they lost their case with Kris Bryant, who they believed was artificially held down in 2015 by the Chicago Cubs during his early tenure there.
MLB believes the work around is to grant free agency at a player’s age only. MLBPA has shot that idea down and prescribed a free agent scenario as described above, that still includes service time. MLBPA made a proposal aimed to prevent what it says is service-time manipulation, including allow accruing of service time for rookies for awards and special accomplishments. MLB owners said no to that proposal.
LUXURY TAX:
This is a clause that is going to take some sincere negotiation. The two sides are very far apart on the individual proposals. Initially MLBPA proposed a ceiling of $250MM. MLB’s initial proposal was a ceiling of $180MM and a floor of $100MM. The owners’ believed that with the proposed floor, the Union would be satisfied, not thinking that the ceiling was absolutely a non-starter.
MLB said their proposal was a “moon shot”, however after the owners/GM meeting, the owners were more dug on with this philosophy. The owners have tried to “fix” this issue by saying that the CBT will grow to $224MM with a $100MM floor, but that floor would be funded from a tax between $224MM and $180MM. Thus the CBT is still at $180MM with a much less onerous tax for those payrolls between $180MM and $224MM. Dan Harem and the owners must think that Bruce Meyer and the players are stupid. The current MLBPA proposal is a CBT of $245MM.
Indeed, players are hoping to steer franchises away from using the luxury tax as a de facto salary cap, and, at the very least, set the tax ceiling at a much higher level. It was $210 million (including salaries and benefits for the entire 40-man roster) for the 2021 season and has not risen at a rate commensurate with revenues in this nearly $11 billion industry.
Can we grow the CBT at the same level as the growth of revenue? Just a thought. Seems like a fair compromise.
REVENUE SHARING:
This is another proposal that is not going to be resolved by waiting. One of the biggest disconnects between players and owners is how they view the worst teams. The players see teams taking boatloads of revenue-sharing money and sticking it in their pockets, rather than spending it on major league payroll. Last season, for instance, four teams spent less than $70 million on payroll: Miami, Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Baltimore. Five years ago, there were only two teams below that level. The players are concerned about increasing the competitive balance of the teams. Players want all teams to be as competitive as they are: always trying their best. They want governors in place to guard against what they call “tanking,” such as curtailing revenue-sharing payments to bottom feeders. The purpose as they see it is to procure a better draft pick.
In addition, MLBPA has proposed multiple adjustments to the revenue sharing formula by eliminating $100MM from the revenue sharing pool, to incentivize the bottom feeder teams to become more competitive. The purpose of revenue sharing is to provide funds for the revenue challenged teams with the ability to procure better players. The players and many in the public arena believe that these bottom feeder teams are taking their revenue sharing funds and pocketing the $$$.
The owners have nixed this idea without discussion. In their estimation, this would destroy MLB and eliminate a number of teams who would no longer be competitive or financially viable. I recognize that MLB is an oligarchy and needs 30 teams for a viable League, (or a close proximation), but I might be more persuaded IF THE OWNERS WOULD ONLY OPEN THEIR BOOKS. Let’s just see what that revenue sharing is needed for. Not going to happen, so there will be no sympathy from me for Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Miami, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, KC, and others in this group.
Another proposal from the players to partially remedy the tanking is to do a draft lottery similar to NBA/NHL style. MLB has suggested to place the bottom three into a lottery pool and draw from there. Most insiders do not believe that teams “tank” for the higher draft pick, but more for the revenue sharing. The owners are willing to ameliorate the players and agree to a draft s. I am sure they can see some advertising dollars in such a scheme, but that is just the cynic in me. The owners have also proposed that no team can draft in the top five rounds for three consecutive years. As long as the Oakland and Baltimore owners get their revenue sharing dollars they will be fine with a draft lottery.
MLBPA has countered with the number of teams to be eight. There is certainly room for compromise on the draft lottery concept.
The of course there are the ancillary issues that need to be resolved but really are not significant as he solutions seem to be very achievable.
UNIVERSAL DH:
Both sides seem to be in favor of this. Owners need to quit using this as leverage for other concessions. Concentrate on the big issues.
EXPANDED PLAYOFFS:
MLB has proposed a 14-team playoff (of course for more advertising revenue), while the players have proposed a 12-team playoff format. Come on. There is room for compromise here on both sides. Get it done no matter how you solve it. Just do not make this an issue to stop the process.
There is plenty of room for compromise on both sides. However, nothing is going to get resolved without face to face negotiations, no matter how heated they get. Neither side can afford to upset the public with a threat to a delay in play. If these issues can be resolved at the last minute without a delay, then do it now. Show the paying public there is concern for them in their divvying up of billions of dollars.
Maybe Congress can hasten the process by once again threaten to eliminate the anti-trust exemption MLB now enjoys. I am generally not one in favor of the government getting involved in private enterprise, but they already have by granting the exemption. Now use it as a carrot or stick to get something done.
Finally, as I said, MLB is an oligarchy that does not allow for free entry to outsiders. In such an economic system, there will always be haves and have nots. Markets are never the same. New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Boston, and Chicago are larger than Pittsburg, Oakland, Baltimore, Cleveland, or either Florida franchise. If MLB is desirous of evening of the playing field with all of the teams, then they need to do it themselves, and not on the back of the players. Or maybe they should be more selective about who they let into their “club”.
The Oakland A’s have made an offer for land in Las Vegas for a stadium and are moving forward with construction plans. MLB needs to allow this to happen instead of continuing to pressure Oakland into becoming more involved in maintaining the franchise. MLB is holding out for Las Vegas as a potential expansion site. MLB needs to move away from expansion and ensure that all 30 teams are healthy. If a team needs to move to become more viable, then work to get that done. But again, owners are greedy, and expansion drops millions into each of their bank accounts. But it also dilutes the player talent pool and the level of play. If MLB wants to speed up the game, I cannot take anything seriously until they agree to minimize the advertising time between innings. Why take from the game BEFORE you can make an improvement. Of course, that would change the advertising dollars for each team and owners are reluctant to do something of that nature.
Great stuff Jeff. Owners are dug in like Oklahoma ticks with their proposals. The players counter on expanded playoffs seemed pretty reasonable to me. They also proposed re-alignment, which I think is way overdue. I was just not too keen on the two seven and two 8 team division idea. 12 teams in the playoffs with the two best records getting a first round bye. Other division winners get to choose their wild card opponent. I think the best playoff scenario has seeding like the NBA. 1-8, 2-7 and so on. Also, if you lengthen the playoffs, you need to shorten the season. November baseball in New York, Chicago or Boston, would not be fun. Manfred says MLB has a desire to make a deal. No where does he say they are looking to compromise. On a nice note, Kersh and his wife just welcomed their fourth child. Congratulations to them.
I am going to be heading out to California on the 15th of December to spend Christmas with my family. I will be on site but unable to add any articles before I return. But I will have a few in the que for Mark to publish at his leisure. I hope everyone has a great Christmas season. I sincerely hope the powers that be in baseball come to their collective senses and get back to the bargaining table and save the game from an extended work stoppage.
Good for you Bear. If you happen to stop by Huntington Beach, let me know and I’ll buy you a beer.
He only drinks IPA
I have no clue what IPA is, I usually drink Sam Adams.
twas a joke
Innings, pitches, per appearance
If I am headed down that way I will let you know.
Thanks Bum….
Great stuff Jeff. I saw a clip from Buster Olney who said on ESPN that one unnamed MLB team executive said that teams and players should have a nice Christmas, New Year, Easter and baseball may be back around Flag Day. If that is indeed the case, where games are missed and a season is impacted by labor strife, I’m not sure I will easily come back to fandom for a sport I have watched, invested in and closely followed my entire life.
MLB executives and the MLBPA with an interest based approach. Work to resolve differences through a mutual problem solving approach that focuses on needs, desires, concerns and fears rather than positions. Baseball is good for the players (they make a lot of $$) and owners (they too make a lot of $$), it’s good for those who direct traffic, who sell merchandise and food, who take tickets.
It’s good for fans who pay a lot of $$ to watch a game to be entertained. It’s good for kids to see a childhood hero before their very eyes. I’ll always remember my first MLB game, the smells, the amazing colors (the grass seemed so green).
Interest based bargaining results in win-win outcomes where everyone involved gets their needs and desires met and their concerns and fears addressed. and while working to get a win-win solution to their dispute the process focuses on developing mutually beneficial agreements. Owners need the players, the players need owners, owners and players need fans and fans need both sides to come together with an agreement. There has be some give and take on both sides and recognition that each side will not win their respective position in total.
Baseball is a great game where everyone can share with a piece of the pie. I fully acknowledge there are high emotions on both sides (labor and management) but I just find it hard to believe, with all of the detail that Jeff has outlined, that they can’t quite easily come to an agreement. The game is big enough, and generates enough revenue, for all sides to have their interests met.
I know there are few players who make it to the show, but if you’re 22 years old and make it to the big leagues you can make nearly $600,000 minimum salary (for just one-year). By comparison there are teachers, police officers, fire fighters, water service technicians, librarians, security guards, soldiers, fighter pilots, etc. who won’t make that much money in a lifetime.
Get it done!
No kidding, I don’t feel sorry for any of them. It seems that most will make enough to live comfortably for a lifetime and when you get guys like Corey Seager who turn down 250M to walk away from the team that invested in him and move to a crappy team, you can see that money and greed is in abundance on both sides.
The thing that concerns me the most is changing the game of baseball just to chase more dollars. I don’t like the “Bye” idea or expanded playoffs. I honestly had a little burnout at the end of last year’s very long season. Sometimes less is more and more is excessive.
Maybe they should put a revenue sharing system in place like the CV relief where you only get the money if “X” percent go to player salaries.
We also can’t hit an inside fastball.
Nice work as always AC, a very thorough and enjoyable read. The thing that really stood out to me is that the teams that really improved themselves were the ones that had good viewership numbers. Related to viewership of all sports is that people are cord cutters now and TV ratings do not account for online streaming. I have noticed that is seems that most people on this site stream rather than watch. Hence, TV ratings going down does not accurately reflect the popularity of the sport, or the revenue generated by add sales since ads are also injected into most streams.
Like I stated earlier, I think the minimum salary should be tied to the amount spent in free agency. That way, when teams over pay for the stars, all the the players get a bump in salary. This will begin to close the gap between the top players and the controlled players. I also like the idea of a pool of money being distributed to the arbitration process based on career fWAR. I’m sure player agents wouldn’t like that system too much.
Anyways, very good and thorough work here. This is the most complete and accurate portrayal of the current state of the process that I have read so far.
I had a dream CT3 was our starting 2b.
I guess that means Belli to 1B and Lux to CF.
I have way more interesting dreams than that…
If the roster stands without further improvements, I can see Lux starting against righties and CT3 giving other players off days with a rotation of players getting time at DH. CT3 playing 2nd against lefties and Lux giving Trea a breather at SS from time to time. Rios and Turner splitting the majority of DH and 3B duties with Rios also giving Muncy a breather at 1B.
C – Smith / Barnes
1B – Muncy / Rios
2B – Lux / CT3
SS – Turner / Lux
3B – Turner Rios
LF – Pollock / CT3
CF – Belli / Lux / CT3
RF – Mookie / Belli
DH – Rios / Turner / Pollock
I have to see Rios before I can pencil him into a platoon.
The B&P lineup looks good to me. Really rooting for Rios comes back as a force.
That’s 11 players for 8 positions. Should we get greedy and go after Freeman or Bryant? How about Seiya Suzuki? They really aren’t necessary. Then again, Seager is gone and there’s no guarantee that Belli will regain All-Star form or that Lux will ever fulfill the hype. (I still see him as UT guy.)
Who rounds out the bench? Beatty has been a steady role player. McKinstry is still a frontrunner for UT (though the tandem of Taylor and Lux might prevail.) I’m rooting for Outman and his speed and glove as extra 4 outfielder.
One potential wrinkle: While I love Mookie and his gold glove in RF, how healthy is he? Eventually he may move to 2B. This could be an argument for Suzuki, who would probably be much cheaper than Freeman or Bryant.
Could be interesting.
Oh, let me add a couple notes on the GOAT post: The GOAT of the 2020s could be Ohtani if he keeps it up. Not even Ruth did what he did.
The GOAT of pitching is Koufax. (I am much more impressed by absolute domination over a few years than longevity. Utterly absurd that some argue that Kershaw is greater.) If not Koufax, then who?
I scanned that post quickly. The candidates were all solid–but I hope the discussion also includes Josh Gibson and others unable to play before Jackie made history.
Any news on Japanese Suzuki
There is a freeze on transactions, and he is included. He can’t even be posted until all of this stuff is settled. Family’s cannot afford to go to as many games as they used to. Last time my sis and I went to Dodger Stadium, just the tickets for the 4 of us up in the reserved section was close to 200$. Counting parking and concessions, the tab for the night was over 400 dollars. We went to see the Quakes, had box seats and it cost us less than 75 for the same amount of people.
Bear, as far as I know Suzuki has been posted but his 30 day window to negotiate and sign is now frozen until the new agreement is put in place. I think the posting date was the 22nd of November so he’s used up about 10 of his 30 days.
I stand corrected.
Thanks for the article, Jeff. This is more insightful than other articles I have read. I had not considered the tanking portion for competitive balance benefits. It’s hard not to level greed accusations on both sides when one considers all of these nuances. It seems the general consensus is that only the fans suffer. Attendance and audience drops with no actual sense of urgency from either side reflects an ambivalence toward fans and the game, regardless of public statements. Will saner heads prevail before irreparable damage occurs or have we passed that point?
Wow, Jeff. Well done. Lot to take in and digest.
Plenty of stories popping up about how baseball can’t afford another extended labor dispute and that the game needs to change (speed up, create more action), the latest piece, written by Paul Newberry, a columnist for the Associated Press.
If we just look at the attendance figures across baseball, the game is in trouble, TV ratings are down, and even with the amazing year with Otani failed to draw big crowds in Anaheim and even the Giants, who won 107 games were way down in attendance. Blaming Covid for all this is not understanding the serious problem MLB faces.
As several baseball writers noted, all the discussion is about money. The owners want to keep it the same, the players want more. But what about the game, three and a half to four hours, is making the game unwatchable for many. No discussion at this point as to how to improve the actual game.
Not sure it makes sense to have a team in Miami. Probably never did. Several other cities simply don’t draw well. Attendance figures are beyond bad. Many other teams in that downward spiral, circling the drain. Yes, they can make money by not spending it, but the on field product is poor. Propped up by non ticket revenue. Maybe Miami is the wrong place for a franchise. Baseball doesn’t need to expand, just relocate failing franchises. Montreal and Las Vegas are certainly possibilities.
Not sure owners get it, certainly players don’t. When they give out $300 million contracts to players who have no chance to return that value on the field, you’ve got a problem.
One reason to give out a large contract is to bring star quality, a player with charisma the fan base can get behind. The Mookie Betts or Justin Turner type players. Even as good as he is Mike Trout is not that kind of player. Neither is Corey Seager. What they bring is strictly on the field.
Somebody should be looking to create a new approach. Analytics is hurting the game. MLB knows this, but is struggling to fix it.
Add in the designated hitter, keep infielders on the actual infield, two between first and second, the other two between second and third, have pitchers deliver the ball quicker (nothing can happen until the ball is thrown) and speed up playoff games. Somebody will mention commercials, you can deliver them with quick bursts during the game as well as between innings, just limit the number so you’re back to the action. Teams clearly need to understand the advantage baseball has over other sports. Families can still afford to attend games, but prices are rising. Best to keep tickets affordable, promote the game accordingly.
It would seem easy to raise minimum salaries, although it would be a good idea to limit the size and number of years of the big contracts. But the players would never buy into that. You could even create a veteran’s exemption with one or two additional roster spots for the players the union seems to be concerned about, even set a higher veteran minimum salary for those slots.
All they have to do is get creative, both sides, and move forward. As it stands now baseball is headed into a somewhat dark future. Seems strange to say after $2.2 billion were recently spent on contracts. But there are signs, have been for awhile, best to pay attention. Not starting the season on time would be bitter blow to fans. People need a diversion from the pandemic, run away inflation, crazy politics, a decline in the quality of life and what is baseball doing? Arguing over ridiculous amounts of money, the focus on owners and players, ignoring the fans. There will be a price to pay. No steroids to save them this time around.
They should do this for the good of the game.
Excellent column today, Jeff.
sbuffalo, lots of excellent and interesting ideas! The status quo isn’t going to cut it.
Absolutely, outstanding information Jeff.
It surely looks like this could bleed into the season. Again, I’m with the players on most of the issues. Without the players there is no baseball. Owners can be found without a problem. If the lockout remains in place into mid season then baseball will never recover. As the boomers and early gen xers move on potential baseball fans will be greatly reduced. I don’t understand how the owners and players cannot see this. As great as the game is, it’s a sport with declining interest. These $300M+ long term contracts may not be payable in ten years.
It’s the small market teams that need to be strengthened to provide a more competitive teams and therefore, keep and develop the game. The owners of those teams and MLB need to come up with a plan to make these teams competitive year in year out. If a stadium is an issue, then get the city, team, and MLB together and provide funds to remedy the situation. Oakland should have had a new stadium 20 years ago. Now, I support moving the team to Vegas. The minor league team there now draws big crowds. Like the Raiders, they will be successful. The Florida teams have been a failure despite having a winning and well run Tampa Bay team and the improving Marlins. As Jeff pointed out above small market teams can and do spend big money on their own top prospects and FA. There definitely needs to be a floor in order for the teams to continue receiving funds from the wealthy teams. A draft lottery should be initiated and I like the limit on drafting first to three years (not five).
Harper and Morton don’t see the deadlines as significant. To ignore them and look at them as not important is a mistake on the players. Sure, Harper has his long term deal and Morton has a $20M year deal for this year and $20M option for 2023. What about the 200+ FAs still unsigned? What about the fringe players trying to find a team to play for? Many have families they need to accommodate.
I don’t know how often the MLB and MLBPA meet, but I don’t see the urgency from either party. I know it’s the holidays, but that covers about 3-4 days. How many people need to be present during the sessions? Start with the small issues that can be easily agreed upon. Then move on from there. Like they say “how do you eat an elephant? One bite at a time”. For the love of the game, someone take that first bite!
Great article Jeff.
Very detailed and thorough.
My initial takeaway is that the differences between MLBPA and the owners are fixable. In a nutshell, the owners would like the status quo with a few minor changes to benefit the players. And the players want more significant changes to the pay structure of the game.
The biggest problem for the players is that the “middle class” of players are making less, and more money is going to the top players instead. In 2021, 52. 5% of total salaries went to the top 100 players, compared to only 42.5% in 2017. Part of this change, is that teams are opting for younger cheaper players instead of veteran free agents when their abilities are similar. And teams are expanding rosters by bringing up more AAA players to play MLB innings. While the average MLB salary is $4.2 million, the median MLB salary is $1.15 million.
I think a reasonable compromise could be reached by offering the following changes:
Increase minimum salary to about $700,000. This will benefit the most MLB players positively who need it the most.
Allow arbitration earlier by expanding Super 2 status to 50% of year 3 players instead of 22% of players.
On Free agency, add an age limit of 29.5, but keep 6 years as years of service required. Also, remove draft pick compensation to provide another concession to players.
Increase luxury tax threshold to $230 million, and add a floor of $75 to $100 million if preferable for MLBPA.
Add universal DH.
Expand playoffs to 12 teams.
These changes all benefit the MLBPA compared the current structure, and allow owners to continue game without a work stoppage.
The service time issue is a minor issue that gets a lot of headlines because of Kris Bryant and Boras. The big complaint this year was Kelenic, and he turned out to not be ready for MLB in April.
The revenue sharing concept is too complicated and not going to be effectively resolved in the next 3 months.
Overall, I think this should be resolved rather quickly if they negotiate in good faith. Unfortunately, 5 of the 8 MLBPA executive members are Boras clients. And Boras and the agents benefit most from the huge free agent contracts.
The game of baseball is quickly becoming the 4th or 5th most Popular sport in the country. The majority of fans are older, and younger generations prefer other forms of entertainment. The ratings even including streaming are stagnant and trailing other sports. The game has bigger problems than the payroll fight in the CBA. And if the owners and MLBPA allow games to be missed, both sides will harmed.
Outstanding AC. Lots of effort and very much appreciated.
A 154 game schedule and expanded playoffs works for me.
If baseball is losing popularity maybe it is due to cost for parking, MLB.com rates, number of commercials between innings, ticket prices, beer and hot dog prices and less about slow play and competitive balance.
I like the NBA lottery. Thirty teams and the last place team gets 30 chances at the number one draft pick, followed by 29 picks for second worse team, etc. Rank the teams by won loss records with a win against the worst team worth one point and a win against the best team worth 30 points, etc or some kind of indexed system that doesn’t let teams in weak divisions to get more wins than a team in a strong division.
I for one do not think Montreal is a good place to place a team. For one, they flopped the first time. Tampa is toying with the idea of playing half of their games there. That is a hair brained idea to me. Why should either city’s fans even support that idea? Oakland is a mess and has been for years. I think expansion is a pipe dream. The talent pool is thin enough as it is. You have AAAA players with MLB jobs, and MLB players looking for jobs because AAAA players play for less. The game needs some tweaks. Not a massive overhaul.
Portland, OR needs a team. Love for the Rays to move there. Rename them the Portland Protesters.
The city would probably prefer the Portland Weird.
They would need a dome up there. But I think that area could probably handle it. I thought for years they should contract instead of expand. But the players union is never going to stand for losing jobs. Players still inking minor league deals. In case anyone missed it, DJ Peters is going to sign with the KBO Lotte Giants. Pujols hit a long homer the other night. Cleared the wall in LF and left the stadium….still the SLOWEST HR trot around.
If Oregon has their way, they will have to play with masks on.
Oregon & Indiana were both once run by the KKK.
As was the City of Anaheim. The Klan was also popular in Glendale and several other SoCal communities.
OC was a very Protestant place that was mostly settled by Southern transplants. The missions notwithstanding, Catholics were very much a minority. After the Sisters of St. Joseph opened their convent in Orange, the KKK harassed them. Oral histories of shopkeepers from the early 20th century show how they gradually grew to accept and like the women in their strange outfits. Anyway, Catholicism flourished in the county and created several churches as well as St. Joseph’s Hospital.
My late Alabama-born mother, alas, would occasionally evince her anti-Catholic upbringing in her in moments of paranoid schizophrenia–even though our next door neighbors and good friends were Catholic.
Great. They can start a tradition of setting their stadium in fire after wins.
Bear- the Montreal story is a sad one. I’m not sure the Expos would have survived over the long haul in any event but their demise was not pretty on MLB’s behalf.
Interesting article and story re Yasiel Puig:
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10020000-yasiel-puig-asks-mlb-to-address-unique-needs-of-latino-players-amid-lockout
I bet Puig doesn’t wear a mask.
I nominate Jeff Dominique as MLB Commissioner. I think you would get this mess resolved quickly. Great article.