Let The Trades Begin

Three weeks for the trade deadline and rumors without knowledge continue to excite or anger baseball fans across the country. It is fun to read other fans takes on their teams and how their prospects line up with others. I was really enjoying Brewers’ fans takes that Keston Hiura should not be included in any trade for Manny Machado, but the Dodgers are silly for not including Verdugo or Ruiz who are both rated higher than Hiura…and I am a Keston Hiura fan.  I was upset that the Brewers took him last year, as I was hoping he would slip down to LAD.  He is a hitting machine, but so is Verdugo who is a couple months older than Hiura and flourishing in AAA while Hiura is still in A+.  Makes no difference because neither Verdugo or Hiura are going for a rental, even one as good as Machado.

 

The latest on the Dodgers was Asdrubal Cabrera, Brian Dozier, and Scooter Gennett.  Cabrera and Dozier are each rentals, and while each are better defensively than Muncy, neither will hit with him.  So, there is really no place for either of them.  Gennett is somewhat different in that he has one more year of control, and maybe Lux will be ready by 2020 to assume 2B.

 

While I would not be opposed to a Scooter Gennett if the price was right, he is not needed with Muncy continuing to hit.  But Muncy is not a long-term solution at 2B, and if the Dodgers could get Gennett, Muncy could play 1B with Belli out in CF.  I agree with Bums that Muncy’s value is sky high right now, but I would not consider moving him until winter.  There is no reason to mess with the chemistry that is working in the clubhouse or with the fans.

 

The only other position player the Dodgers should consider would be Machado because he is a game changer.  But not for an overpay.  It appears that the Yankees are now in on the discussion, but that does not make sense as they need starting pitching not infield help.  But I can see a three-way trade with LA.  Mark hit on it yesterday with Wood going to NYY for prospects, and prospects going to Baltimore with Machado and Britton to LAD.  Maybe the Dodgers include a Rios and get a lottery middle infield or pitcher pick from NYY or Baltimore.  Alex Wood is my favorite Dodger not named Corey Seager, but I am a Dodgers fan first and foremost, and the 2018 Dodgers would improve their chances without mortgaging their future.

 

Machado does not solve the most glaring problem the Dodgers have…relief pitching.  Wood could be a solution for 2018, and he could return to the rotation for 2019, which is his walk year.  Maeda could go to the pen, but not before the post season.  With Kershaw/Hill/Buehler/Wood/Ryu/Stripling/Maeda, two are going to need to go to the bullpen when Ryu returns (after the AS break?), and a third for the post-season.  Wood is the logical choice as he is a lefty who can go multiple innings thereby replacing Caleb Ferguson who would be optioned when Ryu or Cingrani return.  But I see him more in the Andrew Miller role and not the lockdown 8th inning reliever.  FAZ should not be shy to push for Barraclough and Steckenrider from Miami or Treinen from Oakland.  But that window (Treinen) may be closing as the A’s do not believe they are out of it, and Treinen is not going anywhere as long as the A’s are in contention for a post season game.  Even as remote as it may be, why tell the team and the 200 fans they do have that you have given up.

 

The Fish do not want to trade Barraclough or Steckenrider and instead are pushing Adam Conley and Brad Ziegler.  Apparently FAZ has checked in on Ziegler because he has a 0.86 ERA since June 1.  Unfortunately, he also let 25% of inherited runners score which does not go against his ERA.

 

We already know that there is a glut of starting pitching for the second half 2018, and here are the next group over the next 2-3 years (all top 30 prospects).

 

Mitchell White

Yadier Alvarez

Dennis Santana

Dustin May

Caleb Ferguson

Jordan Sheffield

Imani Abdullah

Morgan Cooper

Tony Gonsolin

Dean Kremer  (Last year at this time, Caleb Ferguson was an unknown…except for some of us).

 

That does not include Brock Stewart or Andrew Sopko or Devin Smeltzer who are not in the top 30 but could be good fillers in packages.

 

Relievers who could be up in the next 2-3 years include (albeit the last three would be OKC/LA frequent flyers):

 

Zach Pop

Marshall Kasowski

Nolan Long

Michael Boyle

Melvin Jimenez

Josh Sborz

Ariel Hernandez

Andre Scrubb

Shea Spitzbarth

Corey Copping

Joe Broussard

 

Next year Jeren Therrien will be available, and I project he will be a good one.

 

Now the outfielder prospects.

 

Alex Verdugo

Yusniel Diaz

Henry Ramos

Kyle Garlick (the same people that discounted Scott Schebler discount Garlick)

DJ Peters

Matt Beaty

Luke Raley

Zach Reks

Jeren Kendall

Cody Thomas

Logan Landon

Donovan Casey

 

Not all will make it, but every one of them has a chance, and for some team that is all that is needed.  This also does not consider the players already under contract in Great Lakes/Ogden/AZL/DSL.  Nor does it consider Edwin Rios who needs to be in the AL as Willie Calhoun was.  It also does not consider Starling Heredia who I do not know what is up with him.

 

You can only have so many players on your 25 man (or 40 man) at one time.  FAZ will always find that 25-30 man depth.  There are untouchables.  Everybody has their favorites.  But depending on the return, the Dodgers have too much depth that may be able to be flipped to help the chances for 2018 and maybe 2019.  But if FAZ’s focus is on Adam Conley and Brad Ziegler, then LAD will continue to carry the depth above and fight their way to a WC slot with another 3-4 teams.  The Giants just moved Austin Jackson and Cory Gearrin for contract relief, probably for relief help.  That opened up spots for Steven Duggar in CF and hard throwing Ray Black for the bullpen.  Black can bring it as he has touched 100 on multiple occasions.

 

I have no problem with NYY, Boston, and Houston having better teams than LAD, because only one of them gets to the WS, and there anything can happen.  FAZ will not overpay for a rental, but they should strongly consider Barraclough and Steckenrider and not focus on Conley and Ziegler.  It is also FAZ’s MO to wait until the last minute to work the best deal, so while it is fun to conjecture, I would not expect anything significant until July 31 (although I hope I am wrong).

 

 

Posted by Always Compete

This article has 33 Comments

  1. AC,
    Thank you for the comments.
    *
    I do believe you overestimated the A’s fan base, but what the heck.
    *
    This is always a fun time of year for speculation. Only FAZ knows what they are going to do…hopefully they will give us a few nice presents by the end of the month.

  2. I realize I seem to be mostly alone in proposing to offer some older players in trades instead of all prospects. . The farm teams need players that can at each level regardless of whether they will ever make the 25. Also, some of those that might have a better chance of making a 25 for another team but not the Dodgers should be included in trade packages. Yes, I realize that a team can’t keep competitive players and help them move to other teams where they can make a 25.
    .
    Who are the older (25 – 27) players that might be of interest to other teams: Muncy, Taylor, Puig, Pederson, Hernandez, Toles, Barnes, Ramos, Ryu, Hill, Baez, Wood.

  3. I feel I’m in the minority here and elsewhere as to whether we would give up verdugo for a rental like machado. First of all. Machado is not your regular rental: he’s an mvp level young superstar. Secondly, I think we might be able to survive the prospect due to our outfield depth in the minors. Thirdly, I think verdugo might be overrated.
    *
    When we traded santana for Blake, blake was nowhere near the level that mzchado is today. Not even close. I hated that trade because we didn’t have another catcher in the pipeline with Santana’s skills and he had some serious prospect helium. Anybody who says he was unknown at the time wasn’t paying attention. Really. In this case, trading Ruiz for Dozier would closer to what we did then. (Full disclosure: I would be less inclined to trade Ruiz for machado and might not fo it period, even though we have catching depth).
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    Our outfield is kemp/taylor/Puig with joc and toles filling in for taylor (ss) and Puig (dl). Keekay is a supersub and verdugo is next in line. But, Diaz is on the way up and could catch verdugo by this time next year. Hell. If muncy can really take this well maybe we give him a lf glove next spring training. DJ peters has rf power bat potential and we control kemp/puig/joc/toles at least through next year. What if we dont even need verdugo?
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    If you make the trade you are admitting pushing all your chips in. Machado doesn’t fit well here in 2019. But that’s ok. Maybe Harper does, in which case verdugo is definitely not needed. I normally like to hoard the prospects but machado us a difference maker. They say dont fall in love with your investments and sadly that’s all verdugo is at this point. If toles takes he may even slip further behind.
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    I think we’ll have verdugo on the table this deadline. I cant see why in this moment in time he would be untouchable.

    1. Update: if the price is lux and may . . . Damn, I do it but I think long hard before I do. Now is the only time that matters. Lux has climbed higher than any other of our prospects this year (besides ferguson). He’d be a big loss but also a great get for baltimore.

      1. I like your rationale of Verdugo for 3 months of a top 5 offensive player, as opposed to a solid 2b or a Casey Blake type. Plus we def have the depth, with Toles Puig and Joc relatively young (although Puig is coming up to a big payday soon).

        It will be a fun next couple weeks!

  4. One of our greatest needs is at 2b. I can’t see us trading away our best prospect for the future. Lux will stay.

  5. Getting Machado is a luxury for the Dodgers. FAZ can afford to be patient. I’d rather se us get Gennett and a high profile reliever.

  6. I continue to believe that FAZ will not trade Verdugo… especially for a rental. Why would the Dodgers trade their Top Prospect for Machado when the D-Bags did not trade one single Top 30 Prospect for JD Martinez? Yes, Manny is better, but not that much. I don’t believe anyone will give up their Top Prospect for him.

    The other thing is: Alex may become an elite hitter – no guarantees, but he has the tools. Having the tools is no guarantee, but it sure helps.

    I do not believe Lux will be a MLB starting 2B… and I like May a lot, but I think Lux and May is about right. Maybe one more #20-30 prospect. That’s it!

    Dozier or Gennett are possible, but if Muncy goes to 1B, the team is weakened defensively.

    By the way, I also believe the DH will be extended to the NL next year! Max Muncy – Dodger DH!

    One thing that turns me off about Manny is his insistence on playing SS.

    1. Plus, Manny has horrible defensive numbers at SS. Combine that with a 2b partner of Muncy or CT3, and we’re pretty weak defensively up the middle, with a ss/2b combo that’s never played together before.

      Having said that, if he’s not too expensive, id love to have him!

    2. I believe you but I’m not sure what AZ did last year has any bearing on this year. And I largely dont believe the media posturing. I’m sure texas wanted more than cahoun/et al for Darvish but they eventually accepted our offer. To be honest, I’d rather trade verdugo than lux. And May’s not far behind. I’m not a verdugo hater; I just dont see him as a necessary fit in our future plans.
      I think life would go on and we’d be fine. I’m likely dead wrong.

  7. It is being reported (true or not) that the Dodgers will not trade May or Lux for Machado. If that is true, why in the hell would they trade Verdugo?

  8. Personally I don’t think Machado for 2 or 3 months is worth the price of the prospects. I just don’t think 1 season is that critical. And Dodgers seem to be competing just fine with what we got. But hell I’m just a retired union ironworker an don’t know f*#k all about what FAZ thinks is important.

    1. You are not “Just” anything. You are a child of the universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here.

  9. T31 – You said go get a closer earlier!!! Who are you targeting??? I hope Jansen is considered somewhere in the set up scenario!??!
    Doesn’t it make any of youse guys us a lil nauseous to hear $400M – $500M a year for Harper or Machado???

    1. Second closer. Why get a setup man when you could have two closers? Dont the Yankees have 3?

  10. I don’t like that they are sitting Toles against a leftie tonight.

    Because he not only did hit lefties at the major league level last year, he has pretty even splits this year, against both lefties and righties, at AAA.

    And actually his numbers against lefties this year, are a little better then against righties, although he has good numbers, against both.

    And that includes his OPS, his slugging, his average, and he has hit two HRs off lefties this year, and he has hit two HRs off righties, this year.

    But I don’t know if this is a tough leftie we are facing tonight, but we are also facing a leftie tomorrow too.

    I know sometimes Roberts will sit lefties, if the team is facing a tough leftie sometimes.

    I just don’t like that they asssume all lefties, can’t hit lefties, especially when it is a young player.

    And I think no one likes to see anyone platoon young players, especially if they have had success against lefties.

    I just feel this way in general, not just with Toles.

    I know they noticed that Muncy hit lefties, so I hope Roberts gives Toles some starts, against lefties too.

    But I am just happy he finally got his chance, but it is to bad Puig had to get injured, for Toles to get his chance.

    I know Puig is probably really frustrated right now, because he looked like he may be turning the corner against lefties, after he hit that ball out.

    But I assume Toles knows how that feels, more then most players, after what happened to him last year.

  11. P.S. AC as usual another great post… This is the time of year I drop in a couple days a week to light a few candles and contemplate… I can hear my Mom, God rest her soul saying “Peter that’s sacrilegious you know”!!!
    I can deal with it…

  12. I do not think that FAZ would be opposed to trading Verdugo, I just think they value him more than for a rental.
    .
    Lux is the one middle infielder in the organization above rookie ball that has a chance of playing regularly at the ML level. Whether he does or not is why he is still only a prospect. Jacob Amaya and Ronny Brito could become a prospect, but right now they are just potential prospects. FAZ prefers to develop their regulars rather than buy them so that is why they may be saying no on Lux. This is a breakout year for him, and I would really like to see what he can do for a month to month and half at AA before winter. The same with Rylan Bannon.
    .
    May is probably not due to be a contributor until 2021. Michael Grove, John Rooney, and Morgan Cooper fit in this date range as well. I do not have any specific reason, but Grove looks like he could have been a first round pick if not for the TJ, and that FAZ is hoping for someone just below Buehler. That is the next group due up after Santana/White/Ferguson. I think FAZ would consider one of the Santana/White/Ferguson in a trade for the right return. While I would absolutely prefer Jacob deGrom, something tells me that Michael Fullmer is the SP that would interest FAZ more.
    .
    Other dark horse candidates…SP Zach Wheeler and Matt Harvey. I still have memories of Verlander and “what if”, and now wonder what would Matt Harvey look like in a pennant race and post season. He has not caused any problems at all with the Reds. Something tells me he is competitive as hell and would relish the idea of being a difference maker in the playoffs during his walk year. Maybe FAZ can work something for Harvey and Gennett.

  13. I wonder if all this national attention is getting into Muncy’s head a bit. He has only one hit and hasn’t looked like himself at the plate over the last 4 games. Hopefully it’s just a coincidence and he goes 3-4 tonight!

    1. Trade high. Some team needs either a first or third baseman that is controllable, cheap, and at the beginning of his prime years. Dodgers already have a first and third baseman.

          1. So, Muncy will be the Dodgers second baseman until Turner’s contract is up. Or, will he push Turner to second or Bellinger to CF.
            .
            The Mets need offense. Muncy for deGrom plus a Met prospect.

        1. It’s more likely that Clayton Kershaw will start hitting 99 on the gun as Max Muncy being traded!

  14. Harvey is a good option. His era with the Reds in his last t starts is around 2.48 and can probably be traded for a couple of good prospects. He will also be on his best behavior as this is his walk year

  15. Dodgers offense against lefties making a case for Machado. Forsythe ave. dips below .200.

  16. The Dodgers have more important needs than Machado, mostly second base, and the bullpen. I think Verdugo is a very good contact hitter, the type the Dodgers need so trading him for Machado makes no sense, especially since acquiring Machado currencies nothing.

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