FAZ and Trade Deadlines

There have been a lot of speculative discussions on a potential trade for Baltimore SS Manny Machado. Bumsrap referred to a May 4, 2018 article from an Orioles fan’s point of view.  If I am going to trade for a rental, it can only include players that are replaceable by others in the organization.  Alex Verdugo, Mitchell White, and Jeren Kendall are all replaceable, but not Gavin Lux.  If the Orioles want to consider Errol Robinson in lieu of Lux, I would be okay including Robinson, but the O’s absolutely would not consider that.  I am guessing that either the Braves or Phillies will overpay, because they both have the farm to make it work, and no luxury tax concerns.  Anyone thinking that rental Logan Forsythe is going anywhere as a salary dump is not being realistic.  It is just wishful thinking.

 

I do not think this is sheer conjecture on my part. Take a look at deadline trades over the last three years:

 

2015:

 

07-31-15 – Zachary Bird, Hector Olivera, Paco Rodriguez to the Braves; Victor Araujo, Jeff Brigham, Kevin Guzman to Miami; for Alex Wood, Luis Avilan, Jose Peraza, Jim Johnson, and Bronson Arroyo from the Braves; Mat Latos, and Mike Morse from Miami.

07-31-15 – Mike Morse and cash to Pittsburgh for Jose Tabata.

08-19-15 – John Richy and Darnell Sweeney to Phillies for Chase Utley.

 

2016:

 

06-19-16 – Zach Lee to Seattle for Chris Taylor.

06-30-16 – Caleb Dirks and Phil Pfeifer to Braves for Bud Norris and Dian Toscano.

08-01-16 – Mike Bolsinger to Toronto for Jesse Chavez.

08-01-16 – Yordan Alvarez to Houston for Josh Fields.

08-01-16 – Grant Holmes, Jharel Cotton, and Frankie Montas to Oakland for Rich Hill and Josh Riddick.

08-25-16 – A. J. Ellis, Tommy Bergjans, and Joey Curletta to Phillies for Carlos Ruiz.

 

2017:

 

07-31-17 – Willie Calhoun, A. J. Alexy, and Brendon Davis to Texas for Yu Darvish.

07-31-17 – Hendrik Clementina and SVS to Cincinnati for Tony Cingrani.

07-31-17 – Oneil Cruz, Angel German to Pittsburgh for Tony Watson.

08-19-17 – Jacob Rhame to Mets for Curtis Granderson.

 

Every one of the LAD traded players had at least one comparable or better player in their system. It could be argued that Willie Calhoun may not have had a comparable offensive player, but Willie did not have any defensive position that he could play adequately in the Dodgers organization.  Additionally, the Dodgers had not previously considered a player at the level of Darvish, and Darvish is someone they would have considered re-signing if he had been reasonable.  Edwin Rios could be a comparable potential trade for 2018.

 

It is entirely possible that Yordan Alvarez will become an All Star with Houston or some other team, but he did not even play for the Dodgers DSL team at the time. Nobody knew what type of player he could develop into.  I recognize that many do not like Josh Fields, and I for one do not understand the resentment.  He is not a lockdown reliever, but he has a 0.897 WHIP this year to date after a 0.965 WHIP for 2017.  I recognize that he does allow HR’s but so does Clayton Kershaw.  The Dodgers coaching staff seem to coach to fastballs up in the zone, and sometimes they miss and it drops down into the zone.  No Dodger pitcher throws hard enough to miss in the zone.  Fields was a good acquisition for a lottery ticket.  Jeff Luhnow is a very good GM and is allowed to make good “guesses” with lottery tickets.

 

I wrote quite a bit about catcher Hendrik Clementina last year, so I do think he might develop into a quality catcher, but as of right now he is only in the Midwest League.  However, if there is one position the Dodgers are well stocked at, it is catcher.  I was not as high on Oneil Cruz as others, but he is also in Low A ball for Pittsburgh.  These are huge lottery tickets that may or may not work out in 3-5 years.  It could be argued that both Watson and Cingrani were very helpful for LAD last year.

 

There is no doubt that the Dodgers were in on Cole Hamels in 2015, even though he was not a rental. It was highly speculated that Amaro insisted on Seager and at least one of Pederson or Urias as a negotiation starter.  Seager was a non-starter for the Dodgers, so the talks went nowhere.  None of us know for certain what the discussions were, but it is certainly logical to latch onto the popular speculation.  In 2015, the Dodgers farm system was not as coveted as they have been the last couple of years.  So if not Seager, who?  Could the Dodgers have put together a better package than Texas?  Maybe, but we will never know, because Amaro wanted the one sure thing from LAD.

 

It is true that the Dodgers have not been able to get that one player to take them over the top, but they also did not overpay for any of them. This is the best evidence that the Dodgers will not be in on the Manny Machado trade deadline discussions.  FAZ will not overpay for a rental.  There are no guarantees once the playoffs start.  The idea is to get to the playoffs and get a hot hand.

 

I can see the Dodgers trading Verdugo, Kendall, and White, but not for a rental, and certainly not all three for a rental. IMO, FAZ believes they can get more than a rental for those players.  I also think that Lux is as close to an untouchable as they have, because they do not have any other middle infielder in the minors close to Lux’s skills.  I am sure that one of Keibert Ruiz and Will Smith is also untouchable, and the other one is very close.  There is a little more than 6 weeks before the trade deadline ends, so speculation will be rampant through the end of July.  The one constant is that FAZ will be ridiculed for whatever trade they do make, and for whatever trade they do not make.

 

 

Posted by Always Compete

This article has 20 Comments

  1. Verdugo, kendall and white for Machado would not be an overpay. And he’s a rental. That offer leaves alone a lot of our best prospects.

  2. After the yu Darvish experience I’m no longer rooting for any trades. Keep all the prospects unless you lose faith in them.

  3. I’d trade Lux in a heartbeat to get Machado especially if the Dodgers after going all in on him in the off-season. I’m glad to see him progressing this season. He’s much younger than most realize, but I’m not a true believer until he hits at AA and unfortunately, his injury has set that date back a bit. Jumping to a .300 hitter at Rancho doesn’t something, but I need to see more to be convinced just yet. However, I think the O’s will want at least two pitchers in any deal they make. Their rotation is putrid at best. Logan Forsythe in a salary dump alone no chance in hell. Taking Forsythe off of our hands for two months by sweetening the pot? It’s possible.

    1. Lux is no dealbreaker but he’s now up to a second or third level piece in a major trade. Really his value now is close to if not exceeding that of white and Alvarez. I’m sure teams want a catcher, a starter like may, and another strong piece like a Diaz or Peter’s. Lux may be a decent substitute if a team is insisting on Ruiz. Verdugo is clearly on the table as well. Kendall too. Without even thinking it through–gut reaction hot take–I’d say the price for a Machado (or archer?) Would be verdugo, will smith, white, and a ptbnl. To me, smith hurts the most there but we keep my favorites.

  4. Our deadline deals have done very little to help us during the year of the deal. It took a while to get Rich hill going but he helped and may have really helped if others on the team would have done their job. Cingrani and Watson helped but Oneil could make the Watson deal a bad one. Our best obviously was getting Taylor for Zach lee but it didn’t help until the following year. Some of these trades could look very bad in a few years but who knows. We still have fields,Cingrani,Taylor, hill who are still a big part of what we have. Generally, I am wary of deadline deals except Manny. Arizona made the best deal last year with Martinez and I am afraid they will get machado. I have to say Darvish did help us in the playoffs vs Arizona and the cubs before laying an egg in the fall classic. Hopefully we can make the playoffs and healthy at which time our experience could pay off without any additions.

  5. The Phillies are deciding whether to use Victor Arano as closer. 23 year old from the Dodgers system. Oh well we shall see but you can’t keep them all I guess.

    1. I thought they would get Hand and I think they will get Realmuto. They are the team to beat.

      1. The Nats gave up their #10 and #11 and a 17 year old pitcher still in the DSL. 23 year old 3B Kelvin Gutierrez (prospect #10) is at AA and slashing at .274/.321/.391/.712. A potential good defensive 3B with no power. The lack of power does not play for a corner infielder. 21 year old OF Blake Perkins (prospect #11) is at A+ (Carolina League) slashing at .234/.344/.290/.634. Perkins has plus speed but limited power. 17 year old RHSP Yohanse Morel is pitching in the DSL. None of these players are considered top level. Gutierrez is now #8 and Perkins is now #15 for a poor Royals minor league prospect list.
        .
        I thought that the Astros would be all in for Herrera and I thought the Dodgers would consider him. Both the Dodgers and Astros could have certainly put together a package better than the Nats did for a lockdown high leverage reliever. But it also appears that neither team is ready to make a commitment for a rental. The Astros certainly have the players to make a run at Hand if the Pads want to go in that direction. The Pads are close, and it may make more sense for them to keep Hand.
        .
        Realmuto is going to take a much larger package, and I would guess that it would require at least Victor Robles which the Nats have been opposed to thus far. The Nats are going to go all in, I just do not know what they have left to make a good offer for Realmuto.

        1. The 17 year old must have a bright future otherwise nothing. The Dodgers must not have wanted him too bad. The nationals already loaded make a seemingly one sided deal. Btw our 9,10 guys are Rios and I forget the other but it looks like they would have rather had Rios as those other 3.

  6. Update: Verdugo homers in his second AB tonight, so his last 6 hits have produced 4 doubles and 2 homers.

  7. Don’t trade Verdugo. Give him time and he will flourish. Utd needs to grow up a bit.

  8. Will the Dodgers try for Machado? I think they may see what Baltimore wants but in the end, the cost for a rental will be more than FAZ wants to pay and I agree.

  9. I ask myself that if Verdugo is all that great, why can’t he deliver a half-year rental like Machado? To the extent that Verdugo isn’t near the next Clemente will be measured by who the additional prospects are that would land Machado or the amount of overpay other teams are willing to make.

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