It Won’t be Verlander

The Dodgers will not be trading for Justin Verlander, partly because of  a detail in the CBA that would penalize them immensely for an inflated payroll.  Here is what was reported by  MLB Trade Rumors:

MLB’s new Collective Bargaining Agreement contains a previously unknown detail that could potentially affect teams that spend heavily, Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper writes. In addition to the luxury tax, the CBA includes two surcharge thresholds that could cost big spenders extra money and that could even lower their top draft picks.

The financial details of the surcharge thresholds were previously known. If a team spends above $217MM in 2018, it will receive an extra 12% tax in addition to the usual 20%, 30% or 50% luxury tax. If a team spends over $237MM, it will receive an extra 42.5% or 45% surcharge tax.

Beginning in 2018, there will be an extra penalty for teams in that second category, Cooper notes. A team that spends above $237MM will also have its top draft pick lowered ten spots, unless that pick is in the top six, in which case the team’s second pick will be lowered ten spots.

As Cooper points out, the new rule could be a significant deterrent to teams hoping to be among baseball’s biggest spenders, since teams are generally quite protective of early-round draft picks. The Dodgers, for example, have had payrolls above $237MM for the past several seasons. Under the new system, they would pay a very significant penalty for spending so heavily. Cooper notes that a $260MM payroll in 2018 would cost the Dodgers over $50MM in luxury tax, plus the lowered draft pick.

No way any of that will happen.  Andrew Friedman is not going agree to drop 10 spots in the draft, nor are they going to pay that tax.  End of story.  “But Guggenheim has the money!”  Of course they do and they have that money because they are not stupid!  I think Texas is asking a ton for Yu Darvish and with his horrid past four week track record, there has to be some trepidation about his health and/or psyche. I can’t see Friedman paying close to the same for Darvish when he could have Gray… and more years of control.  It makes no sense to trade for Darvish.

Darvish and Verlander are fireballers who are on the downhill sides of their careers.  Sonny Gray is younger and controllable – his only question is health. I think Gray is the real target, but I would not be surprised if they stood pat.  The Dodgers don’t have to do anything and it’s pretty obvious that Clayton has nothing serious wring with his back.  He will be back by August 10th-15th.  It’s possible he will do one rehab start.  That might be fun.

Rants & Raves

  • Of course, the FAZ-O-PHOBES are losing their minds about the Dodgers signing of Luke Ferrell.  Just liked they mocked the acquisitions of Utley, Dayton, Toles, Liberatore, Taylor, Morrow and others.  You would think that the morons would learn sooner or later, but they don’t because that are morons, I guess.  😉  FAZ’s MO is that they like to get THOSE players BEFORE they become THOSE players.  Remember that!  They churn a lot of players because you have to kiss a lot of frogs to find the prince.  I suppose scouts see something and they acquire the player to see if they can “fix” him.  That’s not a unique idea – it’s just that FAZ does it better than most.
  • It took this team a while, but now that have bought into Turner Ward’s system and they believe.  It used to be they would get 12 hits and score 2 runs.  Last night they got just 6 hits and scored 6 runs.
  • Joc is showing flashes.  If he can keep it up, all is peachy!
  • Alex Wood is a six inning pitcher – leave it at that – There’s no shame in it!
  • The Dodgers’ back of the bullpen is the most filthy bunch there is:
    • Stewart – 0.00 ERA
    • Ravin – 0.00 ERA
    • Baez – 1.48 ERA
    • Morrow – 1.66 ERA
    • Jansen – 1.39 ERA

Posted by Mark Timmons

We started LA Dodger Talk in 2001. This site is about giving another perspective outside of the average day-to-day reporting. We don't do game recaps or such things -- lots of sites do that well. I value sabermetrics, but don't think they are the "end-all-be-all.". This is where you should start your day as a Dodger Fan. Welcome! We'd like to hear your voice.

This article has 89 Comments

  1. At the stadium last night and the crowd was freaking electric. What a come-from-behind win. This team cannot be stopped. Love beating the Giants and seeing the Giant fans shaking their heads when Seager hit the go ahead HR.

    Can’t go today but I will be at Sunday’s game. Hope Hill pitches well today although Ty Blach is a pretty good pitcher. What will the Dodgers do before the deadline….we’ll soon find out. I see Sonny Gray in our future

    1. I would offer Verdugo plus a second tier player or two for Gray. But adding Gray would really crowd a rotation if all are healthy. Kershaw, Hill, McCarthy, Maeda, Wood, Ryu, Gray and I think Stewart without a perfected curve ball could be better than Maeda, Ryu, and McCarthy. And, Kazmir could pop his head above water as well.
      Payroll wise, it would be nice to trade McCarthy and Kazmir.

  2. Alexy pitched 1⅔ innings and gave up three runs, two hits and three walks. He also had three strikeouts. In the two starts prior to this one, Alexy pitched a combined 8⅔ innings and gave up ten runs, 11 hits, and five walks. He did have 14 strikeouts.

    The Loons bullpen would give up eight more runs so it wasn’t all on Alexy. And the offense could not get anything going. As a team the Loons had five hits and struck out 12 times.

    Jeren Kendall is 0-for-9 with four strikeouts thus far in his short career as a Loon.

    The Raptors continued to pound the ball as they had 11 hits in their 6-2 win over the Grand Junction Rockies.

    The top four hitters for the Raptors had eight of those hits, five of those were doubles. Starling Heredia was 3-for-4 with a double and an RBI, Tyler Adkison and Donovan Casey each had two hits and Hendrick Clementina was 1-for-2 with a double and two RBI.

  3. I am 70 years old and have been a Dodger fan since 1958. Never in my life have we had a team where we get behind and I still believe that that we are going to end up winning the game. Even in the game the other night when we were down 5 nothing, I still thought we would come back and they did. As last nights Giants pitcher said “they have something special going on”. Fantastic!

    I think our pen is fine. Brandon Morrow looked great last night. We can live without getting a lefty with the righties throwing 100 mph. Sonny Grey would be ok as long as we don’t have to give up our best prospects. I am ok if we don’t do anything at the deadline.

    It is cool that of the 8 walkoff hits (that leads the majors) have been done by 7 different hitters.


    1. Spokane – nice to hear from you again.
      Still my fav name on here.

      I’ll be honest here. I don’t wanna trade Verdugo – I see him as our table setter (think Brett Butler) for years to come.

  4. Regardless what FAZ does, he will not over pay. Texas wants either Beuhler or Verdugo. Not going to happen. If they want Calhoun, they could have a deal.

    You are right Mark. The Dodgers have the money. That is not the point. They are going to get down close to luxury tax limit and they will not give up on draft choices. These guys are smart.

    I still would like a LHRP, but I will take what we have in the bull pen right now. Ravin really looked good the other night. Morrow looked nasty last night. Jansen, what do you say. I am just glad we have him.

    Right now, I just do not see any weaknesses in this team. Doc plays everybody. The pinch hitters for the night all have a lot of playing time. The other night all three pinch hitters got a hit. Can we improve the team a little? Yes, but at what price.

    When Agon comes back, how much playing time will he get? He will get some, just like Utley. I am sure Agon can see what is happening without him. Hard for him, but he is a professional. He will take a WS ring.

    One more thing. They bring up another catcher to give Barnes more opportunities to play. He is another guy that is forcing management for more playing time. Just like Taylor.

  5. It is a great time to be a Dodger fan and the team finds new ways to impress almost every game. I agree with Idahoal that Faz will not overpay and my personal opinion is they can win it all with no moves. The off season is a better time to line teams up and get value or trade from surplus, need for need. It is usually the hot team that rolls through the playoffs and who is hotter? However I also believe Faz wants to make a move of some kind to show the team, fans and critics the front office is serious about winning the rings and trophy this year.

  6. Excellent! Informative and right on!
    You should copy and paste onto that other site as a “Public Service Announcement”. Oh never mind, it wouldn’t help, they are morons.

    1. Then why in the living Hell don’t you stay here and leave us alone? You add nothing, you only try to start trouble. What is it we have that you keep coming over for? We don’t want you, CatBox.

  7. I said that very thing about Verlander this past week. Free-agent compensation is also a factor now when you’re in the luxury tax penalty box.

    Darvish did not have a bad four weeks. He had two bad starts with 3 quality starts in between the two. Let’s hope his last outing lowered his value a bit. I have no problem dealing Verdugo in a Gray deal.

    Alex Wood pitched fine in the 7th. It was ridiculous that no one got to Posey’s pop up. Then Seager chucks a ball away.

    A lefty reliever and either Gray or Darvish is a must. Forsythe vs righties is the only weak spot in the offense right now. I hate to say it but I have desire to see Gonzalez return this year.

  8. I am 74 and have been a Dodger fan since 1951. I live in South Carolina about 4 hours from Atlanta. For father’s day my four children purchased tickets for the August 1st game against the Braves. There will be about 10 of us for the game and then staying at a hotel over night before heading home the next morning. Are any of you planning on being at that game? I had hoped to see Kershaw pitch, but with him on the DL that won’t be happening. Who should be scheduled to that opening game against Atlanta?

  9. I would trade Alvarez, Calhoun, Sborz and Farmer for Gray. I would even throw in one more prospect.

    Buehler and Verdugo are off limits. Verdugo will never be a CF in the majors unless a speed coach can improve his speed. However he has a bat that could win Chsmpionships. I’m not saying he will, but he projects as that. You can’t trade that unless you are getting a superstar.

    1. I don’t doubt you. I think the Dodgers are thinking along the same lines. Hoping that guys like that and a Rios are the people they can move, but they may wind up having to make a tough decision on Verdugo. It would make it tougher to move him if Gonzalez wasn’t on the roster next year. Belly and Toles will be fighting for that LF spot too.

  10. BTW, I saw this morning that Edwin Rios has the best numbers against the top 30 pitching prospects in baseball. He’s hitting .398.433/.694 in 186 AB’s. Like Calhoun, nowhere to play. He would make a nice piece in a deal this weekend.

  11. I forgot about Rios. He seems to be a hitter.

    My prediction is that if A-Gon is on the team next year it is as a sub. Maybe FAZ will re-do his contract and give him a 20 year spokesman deal.

    Cody is sooooo much better at 1B. Than anyone… not just Adrian

    1. And the entire team with the exception of Yasmani can run a little bit when Gonzalez isn’t clogging up the bases. They aren’t a bunch of base stealers, but they are good base runners. I know Adrian will PROBABLY do what’s best this year, but I’m not sure that I see him accepting Utley’s postition of team dad next year.

  12. What about going after Greinke again. We eat the contract and Arizona would not be in a solid position to ask for any our our top prospects if we take on that contract which is going to eat Arizona alive.

    1. Welcome Bum55

      1. The D-Bags are in the hunt for the Wild Card so they won’t trade him now.

      2. It would push the salary cap next year.

      3. That contract is a killer. It was bad last year and it will get worse in the next 4 seasons.

      Now, if AZ wanted to pay 50%……

  13. I think he’s the best 1B I have ever seen. His speed to the ball and bag is incredible. Plus he’s long and quick.

  14. Scuttle from around the place:

    Ken Rosenthal has Sources. And those sources say: the Dodgers’ three main targets are Darvish, Gray, Britton. Not necessarily in that order; the team’s decisions likely hinge on asking prices. To be clear: It’s possible the Dodgers end up with none of the three, and settle for lesser pieces. Fluid.

    Jerry Crasnick talks about an old friend of the Dodgers: The Marlins are extremely open to discussing Dee Gordon, who has a .694 OPS and is guaranteed $38M after this season. Not much traffic there.

    MLB’s Mark Feinsand has his own sources and they tell him that Dodgers are “bargain hunting” and appear unwilling to part with any top prospects. Would certainly impact their chances at Darvish.

    Finally, Jon Heyman‏ sez that his sources tell him barring a “miracle,” justin verlander will remain a tiger though the deadline.

    1. Bluto, that’s the way I see it, what Feinsand says, the Dodgers are ‘bargain hunting’ as well they should with the prospects and payroll to do anything they want to. This year, with this team they prefer not to spend much in money or treasure unless the deal makes them better now and does not impact too much later. They will wait for a team to ‘blink’ and may end up with nothing or a lesser deal, but may hit the jackpot. For those who think last years deal for Hill and Reddick were ‘top prospects’ for a rental I would argue none were in the team’s future plans. That’s what is likely being offered now, several players that are blocked or not in the immediate future plans while other teams are asking for the family jewels.

    2. To be honest I’ve heard the scuttlebutt about trade deadline moves most years, and the Dodgers either stand pat or do something unexpected and value oriented. I just don’t see the Dodgers getting any of these guys. Friedman has stated he hates deadline deal moves, that there is a feeding frenzy component that drives up prices.

      Verlander is out because of his contract…and that he’s just not very good

      Darvish – it’s insane to give up any prospect of value for someone who’s going to give you maybe ten starts…and he’s not very good.

      Gray – no getting around giving up one or the top two prospects…there’s a possibility he’s not very good. Last year he was mediocre. And the Dodgers can’t deal for a starter unless they do something about the glut of starters they have already.

        1. whoops my bad Bum. I was thinking the wrong Frazier! Clint Frazier is a top prospect right now as well, isn’t he?

      1. jonah, didn’t you mention to boxout something like blogs of a feather should flock together?
        Repent and the whale shall spit you out. Stay nasty and the whale shall digest you. Sorry for getting all Biblical on you.

        1. Bum

          That guy has only had 77 at bats, at the Major league level.

          And he strikes out almost three times more, then he walks.

          Look at his minor league stats, from last year.

          1. Just making talk MJ although I would like a young righty bat that is as ready as or almost as ready as Verdugo playing in Oklahoma.

  15. I love beating the giants. 32.5 and counting. Wasn’t happy that Wood coughed up a lead. Bullpen: 6 hitters/5K. I think Morrow threw 10 pitches to get 3 outs. 8 strikes. What is our rank on walks given up?It has to be near the top. Impressive. Any thought on Grandal being moved? Odd that we brought up Farmer. I like him a lot, but why now? I saw Barnes at Spring Training and was impressed with how hard he was working to improve his defense. I’m looking for a broom.

    1. I would consider trading Grandal after the season is over. He knows the pitchers too well to move him now. He will be a free agent after 2018 so it would be good to get something for him. Barnes is ready to take on half the catching duties now. Let’s see if Farmer will get a chance to show he can be the backup catcher next year. Hopefully, Wil Smith will be ready in 2019.

  16. Vs LHP this year:
    Turner .427
    Taylor .363
    Forsythe .324
    Seager .310
    Barnes .262
    Kiki .260
    Grandal .250
    Bellinger .242
    Joc .231
    Puig .167
    Just FYI

    1. Richie

      Don’t listen to Bluto!

      If batting average meant nothing, why would a team pick a player that has almost the same stats as another player, over that other player, because of the better batting average!

      And I just read that in the late 1800s, they would give a player a hit when they walked, and that brought way up, to many players batting averages.

      So the saber metric thing was already tried, when it comes to walks and hits, and it made to much of a difference, with all the players.

      And that same thing happens, with certain player’s OPS, that also have bad batting averages.

      When a player has to depend to much on walks, to build their OPS, their OPS doesn’t mean that much.

  17. More news!
    Dave Roberts said the Dodgers plan on stretching Brock Stewart’s pitch count in his next start to around 70 pitches.
    An odd thing on Darvish, Jeff Passan reports he was tipping his pitches. Does that imply a mechanical issue or a health one? Honestly, I have no clue.
    Sources: Yu Darvish was tipping his pitches in his last start. Goes a long way to explaining why he allowed 10 runs, the most in his career. Two scouts and an executive said Marlins knew what was coming from Darvish. A slight pause with hands when he was throwing his fastball.
    McCullough says the team is more focused on Darvish than Gray. “Meanwhile, the Dodgers are still in on Darvish, still monitoring Gray, still looking for relief help. Luckily the deadline is almost here.”

    1. Bluto, I just read that too. They said Darvish had a slight pause when it was a fastball and Yellich could be seen demonstrating to his teammates. Honey would fix that instantly.

        1. I wouldn’t deal Buehler, but I feel they have to get Darvish or Gray and a lefty relief pitcher. Although, if Morrow continues to look like he did last night, lefties aren’t going to touch him either. I see Clayton was playing catch today. I think he misses one more start. Two tops and he slides back into the rotation.

          1. Hawkeye

            I agree with your assessment of Kershaw.

            Do you think that the front office will still go get another starter, with that in mind?

          2. They were scouting Darvish and others prior to CK’s injury. I believe they don’t want to go McCarthy or Maeda as a 4th come playoff time, but it has to be a real upgrade like a Darvish or Gray. I don’t believe the Strailey crap unless they’re looking at 3 team trades.

  18. Kershaw may not be out even 15 days.

    There is no reason for FAZ to overpay, and Darvish is more of a TRUE ace, but we don’t need that. We need another #2 or #3.

    We don’t need to lose tOP prospects for a 2 month rental.

    If we lose prospects, we need someone who will stay a while.

    We need Sonny Gary…

    …. or Nobody!

    1. I agree with you Mark about Sonny Gray or nothing. The rest of the other guys is like kissing your sister. Just not a whole lot of bang for your buck. Still think they might pull an end around and build from the back end with two shut down relievers, a lefty for sure and another stud. Shorten the darn game if you can’t get the starter you want. Heard Orel talking the other night that in the last 30 world series games the starting pitcher has only gone past the 6th innin g a handful of times. Haven’t had time to research that, but if it’s true, that is pretty amazing. Either way, you know FAZ has about 6 or 7 scenarios in the next couple of days, and one of them will be standing pat if the deal is not there. Gotta trust them, they got us this far. Not bad so far.

      1. ….The rest of the other guys is like kissing your sister. Just not a whole lot of bang for your buck…..Did you kiss Mark’s sister?

        1. Ha ha, no Bums, I didn’t. Just pointing out that it seems like the media is building it up that we HAVE to get either Darvish, Verlander or Gray, but I agree with Mark in that if we give up some prospects, at least have control for a couple of years over the guy we are getting, or with this crop of pitchers right now, it just aint worth it.

  19. When does an asset become a liability??? I’m not sure I would call him a liability, but Adrian is becoming somewhat problematic. What do we do with him?? He can still play a good first base, but it appears that his homerun power has deserted him (1 in 165 ab), his batting average has dropped (.255), his speed never was, and he clogs the basepaths, and he has shown signs of breaking down physically.

    He has been a great player, a positive asset in the clubhouse and a good influence on the younger players, but what do you do when he is healthy? We have a better firstbaseman that needs to play regularly and I don’t think we can sit him and he shouldn’t have to play LF where we have other good players who would then have to sit.

    It is difficult to tell this future HOF to sit and fill in once in a while. So here is a possible solution.
    AG should finish his career in San Diego. Would they take him and his salary (with the thought of him retiring in a year) if we offered him to them for nothing, or a low level prospect?

    Whatever the decision when he returns it looks like it will be a hard one.

    1. There’s no way SD picks up Gonzalez and that contract. First, no one is going to pay Gonzalez $21.5 million. Second, Will Meyers is the closest thing to the face of the franchise and he’s their first baseman. The one positive aspect of Adrian coming back is for him to re-establish some value to other teams because right now they couldn’t get 50 cents on the dollar for him in a trade this offseason.

      1. I agree no one would want his contract for what they would get in return. What do you think happens? He plays out his contract sitting on the bench? Cody is young and he doesn’t need a lot of rest.

        1. Campy, I’ve got to be honest. I have no idea, but it seems like the depth has always worked it self out. I just hope a happy dugout doesn’t become a problem when a veteran is sitting on the bench pinch hitting like Toles beating out Howie last year. With the lead the Dodgers have it will give them the luxury to give Adrian some AB’s at 1st with Cody in LF and Taylor roving around the diamond. It should give Dave enough time to make the right decision. Personally, I prefer the current lineup as is unless they’re willing to sit Logan against righties and let Taylor play 2nd, but Taylor hasn’t played the infield in awhile.

    1. In reply to your question Mark, “What is a championship worth?” I have no idea and havealso asked myself the same question. Financially it must be worth millions upon millions of not 10’s of millions plus bragging rights which would put more unknown fans in the seats next year. Anyone have any idea what it would be worth? Mark??

      1. How do you figure that amount?

        In terms of playoff attendance? In terms of future local TV rights? Merch sales?

        1. EVERYTHING included. Not sure how much (%} the visiting team receives. There must be some info somewhere.

          1. Richie

            Take a look at how much the Giants went up in value, after they won those three World Series.

            And the Dodgers would be worth much more.

  20. Anyone watching the Fox Sports Channel Broadcast? This color analyst is horrendous

    I was hoping Ken Rosenthal or someone would chime in at times and talk about the trade deadline. Instead this guy keeps trying to be funny, and it’s horrible

  21. Rich Hill in July:
    5 starts
    5 runs in 31 IP (1.45 ERA)
    19 hits (.171 BA against)
    40 Ks, 5 walks
    0.84 WHIP
    Dodgers won the first four

  22. This team is likely gonna best their 42-8 own. But can kinda see a couple of ’em need a recharge soon. Oh yeah, they’re up to get more sleep tonight as it’s an evening game tomorrow. CHEERS!!!

  23. Bill Plunkett

    #Dodgers make trade for LH reliever — Luis Ysla from Red Sox in exchange for cash considerations. Ysla goes to Double-A Tulsa.

  24. One of the Yankees pitching prospects is a healthy scratch at AA. I think Gray moving to NY could be happening soon and it will unlock the flood gates to remaining trades. The Gray deal will set the market value to a certain extent.

  25. I guess the giants don’t like the broom. They will start Bumgarner instead of Cain on Sunday. Watch for 66.

  26. B17, you should be rooting for the Giants the rest of the season in all the games in which they don’t play the Dodgers. You want them to get as low a draft pick next season as possible. Unless, of course, you want to increase the odds that they come up with another Buster Posey or Madison Bumgarner.

  27. Just to prove how the best team won’t always win the World Series…
    Ranked by final winning %:
    1906 Chicago Cubs NL 116 36 .763 Lost 1906 World Series
    1902 Pittsburgh Pirates NL 103 36 .741 National League Champions
    1886 Chicago White Stockings NL 90 34 .726 Lost 1886 World Series
    1909 Pittsburgh Pirates NL 110 42 .724 Won 1909 World Series
    1954 Cleveland Indians AL 111 43 .721 Lost 1954 World Series
    2001 Seattle Mariners AL 116 46 .716 Lost 2001 ALCS
    1927 New York Yankees AL 110 44 .714 Won 1927 World Series
    1886 Detroit Wolverines NL 87 36 .707 2nd place in National League
    1897 Boston Beaneaters NL 93 39 .705 Lost 1897 Temple Cup
    1907 Chicago Cubs NL 107 45 .7039 Won 1907 World Series
    1931 Philadelphia Athletics AL 107 45 .7039 Lost 1931 World Series
    1998 New York Yankees AL 114 48 .7037 Won 1998 World Series
    1887 St. Louis Browns AA 95 40 .7037 Lost 1887 World Series
    1939 New York Yankees AL 106 45 .702 Won 1939 World Series

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