The Clock is Ticking on Deals

The trade deadline is a little over two weeks away.  July 31st is the drop-dead date, but wait!  Is it really?  What would happen if the Marlins put Stanton on waivers in August?  Miami could just let anyone who put in a claim have him if they truly wanted to dump salary, so the question is:  If he isn’t traded before July 31st, would anyone put in a waiver claim on him?  We need to realize one thing: most of these deals we concoct  will never happen!

However, this is baseball and you never know. I do know this:  We have no idea what FAZ is doing.  I am sure they have something up their sleeve that we never thought of.  Some are extolling Theo’s acquisition of Quintana as being a “Bold Move” and it is because the Cubs gave up two highly rated prospects, but Theo had to make it because the Cubs do not have any depth in starting pitchers.  That’s the difference.  FAZ has the depth so that they do not have to make bold moves like that.  That bold move may be good…. but what happens if Quintana doesn’t pitch well or gets injured?

FAZ has made moves that did not work (Johnson, Latos, Olivera, Reddick), but they never gave up Top Prospects to do them. I doubt they will do so this year either – they don’t have to. They have the best team in baseball – all it needs is a tweak here or there.  A lockdown LH in the pen would be nice, but I don’t see them trading Verdugo.

Two weeks of playing wait and see and what if?

I’m ready for some Dodger baseball.  How about you?

 

Posted by Mark Timmons

We started LA Dodger Talk in 2001. This site is about giving another perspective outside of the average day-to-day reporting. We don’t do game recaps or such things — lots of sites do that well. I value sabermetrics, but don’t think they are the “end-all-be-all.”. This is where you should start your day as a Dodger Fan. Welcome! We’d like to hear your voice.

This article has 79 Comments

  1. In the next two weeks I would like to see what Ryu can do as a lock-down 8th inning reliever.

  2. Prospects are only prospects. FAZ has done a very good job in identifying and protecting the studs. I can see a trade of “top prospects” for a LHRP or even a bat.

    I’m just wondering how much longer FAZ can continue to trade “top prospects” before no one will trade with us.

    Now it’s time for Dodger baseball

  3. Bill Russell now works for major league baseball, and his job at every Dodgers home game is evaluating the umpires and making his report to the commissioner’s office. In his words, “There are not as many arguments as there used to be because umpires can look at the TV replay and then make their decision.”

    1. Thought then and now Bill Russell got the shaft. If the Dodger way had continued he would have been manager for a long time. After he was let go I stopped following Dodger baseball, and pretty much baseball in general, except to check occasionally who was in 1st or whatever. My daughter playing softball brought me back to the game I loved as a kid and when she finished her college career in 2012 it left a huge gap in my life. Which I filled by a really fun 2013 season from the Dodgers. Been a pretty avid fan ever since, as I was as a boy. Go Dodgers.

  4. SD asked for Verudugo for Hand. Obviously we said no.

    But I would consider Verdugo in a Britton deal, as he’s signed thru 2018 as well. Would an elite closer like that accept being a set up guy for the next 1.5 years though?

    1. I would not trade Verdugo within the division… in case he become Tony Gwynn, but I would consider trading him for Britton, but it would likely take Alvarez and Verdugo. Baltimore will askfor (and not get) Buehler.

    2. Mark is right, “We have no idea what FAZ is doing”. It would sure help if we had FAZ’s scouting reports. DAMN!
      .
      That said, I don’t go over Calhoun (and fillers) for injury risk Britton who is controlled only through 2018. Calhoun is reserved for trades with AL clubs.
      .
      For me, Verdugo only goes for 26 yr old Rivero, who is controlled through 2021. But I sure would like to review the scouting reports first.

  5. I think the FO will go all in this season. As smart as FAZ et al are they know they have something special this year and will strike while the “window” is open. I can see them trading anyone in the minor leagues not named Walker Buehler and Mitchell White. I’m not advocating Verdugo or Alverez to be traded but this FO can evaluate talent not like other organizations and will move almost anyone to get BP help, SP help and maybe even a replacement for Puig (Stanton).

    I’m not convinced the players and management fully support Puig. I was at a game at Coors Field this year and watched Puig nonchalantly go after a line drive that nearly got over his head. He made the catch but made it look more difficult than necessary. I watched as Kershaw spun and looked right in the dugout at Roberts. Easily you could tell Kershaw was not impressed with how Puig played the ball and looked exasperated as he glared in the dugout. Will Puig get traded? I don’t know, but would I be surprised if he is? No!

    1. I remember that play. Remember Coors field isn’t an easy place to play OF. One thing for sure is that his teammates have rallied around Puig this year. They’ve seen him put in the work, show up on time for stretching, etc. He’s tight with Turner Ward, JT, and Kenley. Could he be traded? Absolutely, but at this time it isn’t because the players don’t support him. His defense has been stellar and he’s on pace for nearly 30 dingers out of the 8 hole. If the Dodgers move him it is because they see an upgrade.

      1. Completely agree with Hawkeye’s assessment of Puig and his position on the team.

  6. Friedman has made some of his best deals, on teams like the Dodgers, and other teams, that need a player, at the trade deadline.

    And there are more sellers then buyers out there right now, so it is going to be hard, to make really good deal, so I think the front office is going to keep it simple.

    And just try to get a good leftie for our bullpen, and maybe another arm, to freshen the bullpen up, like they did last year.

    It would be great to get Britton, because he not only shut down lefties, he shut down righties last year too!

    But the Oriole’s might be asking to much like most teams are, so I bet the front office have been looking at the different spin rates on pitchers, and strike out rates, to try to make a steal for a second arm, for the bullpen.

    But Britton will definitely be a game changer, because with both Kenley and Britton in the bullpen, we will have upped, what the Cubs did last year, when they traded for Chapman!

  7. I agree with you NorCal. I do not like the way Puig catches any fly ball. That is why I wish FAZ would bring Verdugo up now to give him two weeks to see what we have. I will not be unhappy if the Dodgers trade Puig. However, FAZ is very good at developing talent and know who they want to keep. I listen to the Calhoun interview at the all star game and he thinks he has improved defensively. He said he has done everything the Dodgers asked him to do.

    We just need a lock down LHRP. When Agon comes back we are going to have an extra outfielder. I agree with you Bum on finding out if Ryu can be a nice bull pen piece.

    1. How did you like the Willie Mays basket catch? Don’t remember if it was frowned on at the time. I admit, I like two handed catches, even for MLB players. But, until GG Puig drops one, I can live with it.
      .
      Yeah, let’s see what Ryu and Verdugo got ASAP.

      1. Boxout

        That doesn’t make Puig look good, like he thinks!

        Pujols took another base on Puig, when Puig caught the ball like that once.

        And Pujols told him at the time, that doesn’t make him look good, so I don’t know why Puig has started to do that again, unless he knows Bum just loves, his nonchalant, catches.

  8. Regarding Mark’s waiver claim question on Stanton. I don’t see FAZ doing that. Terrible contract!
    .
    Only way Stanton becomes a Dodger, in my opinion, is if Marlin take back dead weight contracts that get us out of 2018 luxury tax and Stanton agrees to changes on his no-trade. Maybe a no-trade clause through 2020, so he can be part of the Dodger Dynasty and go head to head against Judge in the W.S. for a few years. If I was him I would prefer that possibility rather than being stuck in Miami.
    .
    Does anyone remember me asking, Would you trade Wood for Baez and Happ? Looks like that was exactly what Detroit wanted for 24 yr old MIchael Fulmer.
    .
    The Cubs tried to engage the Tigers in trade talks on Michael Fulmer before acquiring Quintana, reports Nightengale in a full column. However, Detroit gave no indication that it was willing to listen unless the Cubs were willing to include both Javier Baez and Ian Happ in trade talks. GM Boxout isn’t sure he would have done that deal, without the scouting reports, but would have considered it.

  9. I agree with many that:
    1 – This is the year to pull out the stops
    2 – The Braintrust thinks so too. That’s why they re-signed Turner, Jansen and Hill
    3 – We all have different opinions about what it means to pull out the stops
    4 – If the past few years have taught us anything, the Braintrust won’t likely trade the “wrong” prospects when making a trade for the last piece of the puzzle
    5 – If the past few years have taught us anything, the pieces brought in by the Braintrust may not do much. This is the year that I hope that changes and that the pieces brought in will make the difference
    6 – No way that the Dodgers will bring in guys with huge contracts (like Stanton) at the deadline – the past few years have shown us that too
    7 – The BT is willing to bring in rentals – eg. Hill and Reddick
    8 – They are willing to make incremental improvements but I doubt that they will do so this year – the bench and minors have been good enough that they won’t need to do so
    9 – I still doubt they bring in a starter. There is going to be a lot of competition for a few high impact lefty relievers. I still want to see a RH power bat for the OF. Will they trade an existing OF in the process? Maybe – I have seen the arguments for either Puig or Pederson going and it is possible.

  10. http://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/19964788/mlb-one-move-team-make-second-half

    Yasiel Puig’s on pace to get near 30 homers for the first time in his career, but big picture rather than counting dingers: He’s not actually hitting any better (103 OPS+) than he has over the past two seasons (104 OPS+). The talks of his resurgence are mostly because of the recency bias created by a solid June (.965 OPS). Last month aside, I’d be surprised if Alex Verdugo wasn’t a better overall player than Puig was at this point. While it’s hard to make the move work from a roster standpoint, remember, I’m the guy with the Doomsday Laser.

    1. First the Pulsar Interceptor, now the Doomsday Laser??
      .
      To some you must seem like Darth Vader (on another board), but to me, Chewbacca with an occasional Obi-Wan Kenobi mixed in. Can either the Interceptor or Laser let those of us who are not Insiders into that article?

  11. I’m not so sure we need a LHRP for the playoffs. Starters will be Kershaw, Wood, Hill, and McCarthy. That leaves Ryu and Kazmir for the bullpen.

  12. I think everyone is sanctifying Verdugo like they did with Urias. He IS expendable. Can’t compare Puig,a proven major league hitter , with Verdugo who has not even taken a swing yet. Verdugo can go if the return is right. I’m glad Urias isn’t part of this conversation any more, but Verdugo is quickly taking his place. I would take Fullmer for Verdugo et al in a second.

    1. I doubt that is the last we hear about Urias.

      Here was the scouting report on him before his debut:

      http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/what-to-expect-julio-urias/#Z2JyHpDFTFKXSSJP.97

      Then, in the second half of 2016, he started 7 games and went 4-0 with a 1.99 ERA. He ended up his rookie season with an ERA a full run below the great Clayton Kershaw’s Rookie Year and Clayton was a year older!

      How can a Dodger fan say they are happy a player with that kind of talent “isn’t part of the conversation anymore?”

      That’s asinine!

  13. Verdugo and Calhoun for Fullmer would be a steal for us. Throw in some minor league starter too. Fullmer can play.

    1. yes, and throw in Walker Buehler too. Oh, and Mitchell White, who nobody ever heard of at Santa Clara……… except a few scouts

  14. Urias isn’t going anywhere. Verdugo? That’s another question. From what I have read (no personal knowledge claimed here), he has 3 issues
    1- gained weight and lost speed – no longer a CF
    2 – no power in an era where power is coveted and hitters who hit .350 aren’t necessarily
    3 – attitude is reported to be poor

    I have no idea if he would be available in the right deal, but ask yourself this – how many regular players do the Dodgers have who aren’t capable of hitting 15+ HR/season? If the answer is zero, then ask whether the Braintrust wants one.

  15. Let me remind you that power is usually the last thing to come. In about 4 AB’s in 2013 and 2014, Cody Bellinger hit 4, count ’em four home runs. I think Alex will be a 15-20 HR guy soon enough. He does have some issues evidently inherited from his dad, but his talent level is high with the bat.

    I honestly think he has a shot at being Tony Gwynn. He’s not fast but he has a great arm and could play in LF or RF.

    It would take a lot for me to trade him.

  16. Dodgers have also reached out to Balt re. the set up guy, Bach (who Mark wanted earlier this year!)

    If Britton is too expensive, maybe Bach is the one.

    We’ve also talked to Pitt about Cutch and leftie reliever Tony Watson (and to Det about Wilson/JD Martinez)

    1. Link? I haven’t read anything about reaching out to Pittsburgh. I’m very weary of Watson.

  17. The 2018 payroll tax threshold is $197.
    .
    2017 Dodger payroll includes 38 total players and $241,149,167 total salary.
    .
    The 2018 payroll will not include Ethier at $17.5M, Crawford at $21.8M, Guerro at $7.5M for a total of $46M.
    .
    Disregarding raises and new players, the Dodgers will go into 2018 at $241M less $46M = $195M
    .
    Whomever they trade for, the Dodgers should try to include one or more of the following to offset the payroll increase from that trade to avoid the payroll tax penalty–
    McCarthy $11.5M, Gonzales $22.4M, Puig $9.2M, Kazmir $17.7M, Ryu $7.8M, Maeda $3.1M
    .
    Those players total $71.7M

    1. The luxury tax analysis you posted on the prior thread shows, that if Dodgers don’t get out of luxury tax territory in 2018 they will be at a competitive disadvantage when looking to sign free-agents post 2018 season, because of loss of draft picks. Also looks like they don’t get compensated much, if any, if Kershaw leaves. They have to get out of luxury tax in 2018.
      .
      I also thought, I had read that a repeat luxury tax offender would outright lose their first round pick. Did you see anything like that? I might have been hallucinating.
      .
      Those players you listed above, totaling $71.7M are all pretty good values except, Gonzalez and Kazmir (maybe Ryu). If healthy, McCarthy, Puig, Ryu and Maeda should all have positive trade value. The problem is going to be raises to everyone else.

        1. I mean, can’t be in luxury tax territory for the 2018 season. Sounds like, based on what Bumsrap posted, if Dodgers were in luxury tax territory for the 2018 season, they get penalized pretty good if they sign free-agents after the season or if they lose any free-agents after the season.

          1. I guess the same thing applies post 2017 season. But looks like we already know we’re in luxury tax territory this year.
            .
            I don’t know how they would calculate it if a player was traded/acquired during the year.

  18. All the talk about trading AGon , he does have a partial non trade clause. Romo, Utley, Gutierrez, Morrow, Van Slyke, Availan, Hatcher are free agent or non-tender candidates that’s close to 15 million that can come off the books. Forsythe has an option for about 10 million. That’s a lot more that comes off the books.

    Stanton while I don’t think a trade happens, carries a 25 million per year payroll hit. For luxury tax purposes big contracts are counted on annual average value. If the National League goes to the DH Stanton might a big might make some sense.

    My gut tells me FAZ goes north again for Doolittle and Gray, with a possible run at Khris Davis.

      1. All I can find is its a partial no trade, I haven’t found anything as to how many teams or what teams.

  19. I would like to see Gonzales finish his career in San Diego. He would probably make that his second choice with his first choice to stay with the Dodgers.
    .
    San Diego could use Gonzales to help with their youth even though they would keep Meyer at first. Gonzales plus $10M and Oats for Hand would be nice.

      1. I agree with Mark, even though I too “would like to see Gonzalez finish his career in San Diego”, it’s never going to happen via that trade.
        .
        Anybody think Dodgers might give some team, like San Diego, some good prospects after this season to take Gonzalez? Kind of like the Lakers trading Russell to the Nets to get rid of Mozgov’s contract.

  20. Funny how everyone wants to trade our trash for the other teams best. If you don’t want those guys what makes you think the other teams want them. Even paying down contracts won’t make it easier to move them and you still won’t get top players in return

    1. Hand has a career 4.07 ERA and a 1.31 WHIP. He has done better for the last two years but still he is a relief pitcher. Granted, the Dodgers could use him but I wouldn’t give up too much for him. San Diego asked for Verdugo, I just countered with Oats and Gonzales. Game on.

  21. Like Mark said SD would never make that trade. My belief is they go north to Oakland for Doolittle

  22. “New Half – Same Story!” Joe Davis

    Classic!

    The Dodgers don’t need a damn thing!

    1. I’m sure the look on Puig’s face was priceless too! I’m thinking sweep with Wood and Hill going, and the team battled to bail McCarthy out. The bullpen was nails tonight.

      1. I’m sure he got a little more pleasure sticking it to Mattingly. One swing or we would have been discussing leaving Mac in a batter too long.

      2. Vegas

        Did you see Puig’s face in the dugout?

        He looked like a little boy when he came into the dugout, after he hit that.

  23. Unbelievable!!!
    27 come from behind wins.
    They believe they can win every game so they are never out of a game.
    And PUIG!

  24. He heard ya’ll talking! Best 8 hole hitter in MLB… try and say that fast…
    Team of destiny?
    We talk trade.. They say What?

    1. Didn’t come close to hitting Grandal’s glove so wasn’t able to pitch to the game plan but hitters still struggled to hit him. Wildness that worked until he looked like he was going to start walking hitters.

  25. IMO Verdugo is the best AAA hitter the Dodgers have had since John Werhas. I hope not the same desire and drive to compete in the bigs.

  26. I worry just a little that Taylor will revert to his past. I probably need to stop worrying. He had two hits last night and a walk. He made a great play on a ball hit over his head and to his left. He probably is another Justin Turner. If you think of just those two players and what finds they were.

    1. Yeah, stop worrying. Taylor is a heads up ball player who does a lot of little things to help his team win. And even if he did start sucking we got Verdugo or ??? to replace him.

    2. Joe and Orel keep reminding us that Taylor’s new swing makes him a different hitter than he was when he was traded to the Dodgers. Pitchers will pitch him differently so Taylor will have to adjust. Taylor’s success is still new.

      1. Chris Taylor has 250 AB’s. He started out hitting .400 and the league adjusted. Then he adjusted and keeps adjusting. Like Cody, he makes in-bat adjustments. I do not see him sliding down a lot. If anything, he will get better. Pitchers are and have pitched him differently. He knows how to work the count and has a great eye. I think Chris Taylor will hit .270 – .280 this year with 20 HR and an OPS over .800. I also would not be surprised if he hit close to .300.

  27. Two outs, nobody on base, down a run in the top of the ninth, two consecutive hitters grind out two strike counts to get on base, and then Puig hangs in with a third two strike count, two out count to hit the game winner home run. This team knows how to use all 27 outs and knows how to win.

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