Midseason Dodger Prospect Report

Baseball America just released their Midseason Prospect Report and most notably, Cody Bellinger is no longer a prospect.  Go figure – I guess hitting 25 HR for the Dodgers does bad things to your prospect status. This time, the Dodgers have only four prospects in the Top 100.

  • Willie Calhoun jumped from #92 to #73 – That’s what happens when you hit those long-balls.
  • Yadier Alvarez dropped from #26 to #59 – That’s what being fat between the ears will get you.
  • Alex Verdugo jumped up to #35 from #58 – That’s what happens when you hit .350.
  • Walker Freaking Buehler  went from Not Rated to #17! – Wow!  That’s what happens when you are really, really good!

Buehler jumped ahead of Michael Kopech, the White Sox phenomenon who can throw like 150.  Anytime the Dodgers talk trade, the other teams are asking for Buehler and Verdugo.  I would not entertain trading either one and teams are losing interest in Alvarez who looks to me to be a closer.  Baseball America wrote this about Buehler and Kopech:

A scout who has seen both Kopech and Buehler said he loved both of their arms, but it was Buehler’s stuff that left him shaking his head.

“It’s in the top group of arms I’ve seen,” the scout said. “He’s got No. 1-type starter stuff.  He’s got four pitches that all have a chance to be average or better.  Everything was electric.  Everything was a swing and miss pitch.”

His arm is fast,easy and loose,” the scout said. “He’s a future No.1.  … I’d take either one of them right now,” the scout said, “but Buehler is more refined.  Even though they are at the same level, Buehler is more advanced.”

BA went on to say that Buehler sat at 97-98 MPH, didn’t dip below 96 and touched 99 and that his fastball has “solid late movement.” They also said that “Buehler attacks and gets ahead of hitters.”

Walker Buehler is likely be in the Dodgers’ rotation next year.  Kershaw, Wood, Buehler, Hill and Mac?

Rants and Raves

  • The Cubs paid dearly to get Jose Quintana giving up Eloy Jimenez (Ranked #5) and Dylan Cease (#82) among others.
  • On the previous thread, I saw AC’s link to Fanragsports.  I like the idea of Zach Britton.  Baltimore needs starters.  Ryu and Maeda?  What would it take?
  • On Alex Verdugo:  I heard he was not happy with batting 8th last night in the All-Star Game.  “Well, you didn’t get a hit, so they were right!  Grow up!”  That may be his only issue.

Posted by Mark Timmons

We started LA Dodger Talk in 2001. This site is about giving another perspective outside of the average day-to-day reporting. We don't do game recaps or such things -- lots of sites do that well. I value sabermetrics, but don't think they are the "end-all-be-all.". This is where you should start your day as a Dodger Fan. Welcome! We'd like to hear your voice.

This article has 68 Comments

  1. Mark

    I guess that Cub’s trade, made you ambitious, and AC’s idea, and his thread, made you become creative, in the moment!

    I like the AC’s idea of getting Britton, he was not only the best reliever in the American League last year, he is effective against both lefties, and righties, and like you said Mark, the Orioles are desperate for starting pitching.

    1. Mark

      Just saw this, when Kenley heard about the trade rumors, concerning Britton, the thought of bringing Britton, to help Kenley close out games, gave Kenley, goosebumps!

  2. Neshek is a guy that I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dodgers check in on too. Remember, the Dodgers actually offered him more money than Houston when he signed there, but Neshek went for the lower tax rate. FAZ has made a few deals with Philly since arriving in LA. Baez has had a nice year, but I don’t see him as an 8th inning guy. He’s had too many playoff failures for my comfort. The Dodgers need to be in on a bullpen arm or two. I know Morrow is liked by many, but he belongs in Hatcher’s role not close ball games at this point.

    1. Hawkeye

      I agree about Baez.

      He is not a very confident pitcher at times, but he has done better this year, but I still not confident with him, in tight situations, especially if he has to come in, with runners already on base.

  3. I do not think that Adeiny Hechavarria qualifies as a big trade, so IMO the deadline trade season has officially begun with Jose Quintana. The Cubs gave up a lot, but they have a legit #2 thru 2018, two very reasonable club options thru 2020 of $10.5M each, and insurance for losing Jake Arrieta/John Lackey. Jimenez is one of the very top OF prospects in all of MLB, but he is at least two years out. Dylan Cease is one of the top RHP prospects, but is also two years out. The Cubs do not win the WS without Chapman in 2016. They are showing that they are not afraid of trying to go for it again. The ML team is very young, and they still have Jeimar Candelario (3B/1B), Mark Zagunis (OF), Victor Caratini (C/1B), and Chesny Young (inf) major league ready at AAA. Not to mention Ian Happ and Kyle Schwarber. They have plenty to still go after relief pitching and catching.
    I do not expect the Dodgers to make such a bold move. There are still a lot of baseball “experts” who think the Dodgers need a RHSP like Sonny Gray/Gerritt Cole. Rangers are now saying that Yu Darvish/Cole Hamels will be in play if their (Rangers) play does not pick up. I just think the Dodgers trust what they have in starting pitching. Time will tell if that was foolish or not.
    There has been a lot of discussion for a RH bat here. As much as I like and would welcome JD Martinez, I would be surprised if the Dodgers make a trade unless they can get Justin Wilson in the same deal. I think they will stay with Taylor and Puig as their RH OF. If the Dodgers could somehow include Logan Forsythe in a trade with NYY and acquire Clint Frazier, and move Taylor to 2B, that is something that could help both teams. But that is highly unlikely, so waste brain cells. They may look for an upgrade for Trayce Thompson, but not a regular.
    But where they absolutely need help is LHRP. None of Avilan/Dayton/Liberatore are dependable. Liberatore may not make it back at all this year. What makes the situation more dire, is that there are no LHRP anywhere close in the farm system. The closest potentials are Caleb Ferguson and Devin Smeltzer both at Rancho), but both are considered starters for now. I would expect that is where they will undoubtedly remain, since LHSP is also needed. Relief could be in their future as they get closer to MLB.
    If the Dodgers go big, this is where I would expect them to go. Justin Wilson/Sean Doolittle/Zach Britton seem to be the three that they are watching most closely. But there are some that think that they will lower their sights for a Tony Watson. Because of the way it turned out, they claim that FAZ is looking for a left hand version of Josh Fields, and Tony Watson fits that criterion. As I have previously stated, I am all in on Zach Britton. It will be costly, but Britton to Jansen seems awfully good. They will probably also look for another quality middle reliever. Ryan Madson also seems to be on their radar. I know they were looking at Kyle Barraclough as well.

    1. Darvish is the only one of the starting pitchers being discussed right not that really interests me. Friedman has always been adverse to the overpay of the trade deadline. He was recently on DodgerTalk with DV discussing the topic, but Darvish has to at least interest him.

      Britton would be awesome if he’s healthy and ready to go. We all know Roberts wouldn’t leave him sitting in the bullpen like Buck did last year. I think FAZ will kick the tires on JD and Stanton, but Friedman has had a reputation of being a window shopper at the deadline. JD is realistic.

      The Dodgers will deal from a position of strength . We have a lot of arms, OF depth, and catchers. Grandal, Barnes, Farmer, Smith, and Ruiz. I have to believe one of the latter three will be dealt.

    2. Yes, LHRP is the biggest chink in the armor. I see us getting someone. I also see us getting something to replace Gutierrez/Thompson. Shouldn’t have to break the prospect bank to fill our needs. Any of Justin Wilson/Sean Doolittle/Zach Britton would be great.
      I’m sure FAZ has also checked in on Rivero (and McCutchen) with the Pirates. Similar package as what the Tigers have, but better. Nice thing about Rivero is he is controllable through 2021, Wilson through 2018.
      My guess is FAZ surprises us all with what the acquire, but we can all dream.

    3. AC

      Having Britton and Kenley, is comparable to having Miller, and Chapman, but I think Kenley is better then Chapman now.

  4. Is it bad luck to think about the post season? Here goes. We need a shut down middle relief pitcher who can go 2 days out of three. The Astros have Devenski and that is a huge advantage for them especially with a so-so bullpen. Any Andrew Millers out there? Otherwise we go with our quantity , which won’t hold for the playoffs. Is Morrow the guy who can do this for us? Maybe so. The second half should be used to show what he has. Maybe he is the next Devenski/Miller. With the giants gone the season doesn’t seem as interesting. No stress here. Bay Area paper talks about how shitty the giants are. Love it. And they are. But don’t be surprised to see them be our pain in ass before this is over.

  5. Alvarez was probably ranked too high to begin with. Still, with his physical gifts, when/if he starts getting batters out his rank will shoot up like an erupting volcano. Guess he’s not a prospect but wonder what Urias would be ranked right now. Injury is a rank killer. Wonder if Alvarez is having some arm problems? Control and movement seem off from last year. Everyone knew Buehler would be good if he responded well to elbow surgery. No crystal ball needed there. Let’sget the 2nd half going. Can’t wait to see what happens.

  6. I do see Alvarez as a high-leverage arm in the pen and that could accelerate his rise. He only needs two pitches and he can hit 101-103 in the pen. If he can develop a wipeout slider (it’s close) or a cutter, he would be lethal.

    BTW, I don’t have inside knowledge on this, but someone who knows someone who does says that Buehler could get a call up… SOON!

    1. You’d think he’d go to AAA at least for a week or so before they bring him up. But IDK.

      1. I would doubt it but I’m sure he knows someone who knows Andy. Maybe that’s where he heard it. I don’t get that part. This guy tells me some stuff that is usually spot on, but if Andy reported it this morning, then Andy said it first!

    2. I too have heard that from a number of people, and have read about it from a dozen more. It seems more likely than not that Walker gets a call. He can help the ML team, and the team can control the number of pitches.

  7. Me too. Make Beuhler the 5th starter. Trade Ryu, Kasmir and Maeda for a left hand reliever, and throw in Calhoun. Calhoun is blocked.

    I think Agon will be back for the final run. They will let him play. He has earned it. That means Bellinger goes to the outfield.

    All is good in Dodger land. All I want for Christmas is a Dodger WS.

    1. Of course the Dodgers are going to have to do their medical due diligence. But he was so automatic last year that as long as the cost is not outrageous, he just might be worth the risk. Teams were afraid of Greg Holland, and it appears that the Rockies got the best out of a reluctant group. Every player has a risk associated with them. Hill and his blisters. Reddick and his inability to play in LA. Giants’ Will Smith having TJ surgery after trading #1 pitching prospect Phil Bickford to get him. The Mariners entire rotation has been on the DL. There are lots of question marks about Quintana. You do your best due diligence and you adjust the return based on the best knowledge you have, and do not look back or second guess. The second guessing is what the fans do and do it very well.

  8. Doubt that columns will line up but this compares Britton’s last year with this year

    2016 BAL 2 1 0.54 69 ..0 ..0 …0 —–47 -47 67.0 38 7 -4 -1 –0 —–18 -74
    2017 BAL 0 0 2.25 11 ..0 ..0 …0 ——5 –5 —-12.0 16 3 -3 -0 –0 ——5 –8

    1. Britton has not been healthy this year, so a few innings don’t really mean much. The questions is “Is he healthy?”

      1. He pitched July 5, 7, and 9. July 7 not so good. He came back July 9 against the Twins and did well. He is not ready to close 2-3 nights in a row. I think Britton is a lot like Hill last year. The Dodgers are not concerned about making the playoffs, but having Britton ready for September and the playoffs would be very nice. And of course 2018.

        1. AC

          And I am sure Britton has had film on his arm, after he had the tightness, and the Orioles wouldn’t be pitching him, if there was some concern with his health.

          He would definitely be a game changer, and that is why Kenley was excited, about that possibility.

  9. Can you imagine Buehler, Baez, Morrow, Stewart and Jansen? Gassers, all! Would we even need a lefty? 😉

  10. On January 22, 2017, I wrote this:

    Many scouts think [Buehler] was the most MLB-Ready pitcher taken in the 2015 draft.  So, what can we really expect?  I would think he starts the season at AA or AAA and then the rest is up to him.  We could see him in 2017… or not.  I think he could even pitch out of the pen to limit his innings.  One thing is for sure:  This is no ordinary prospect.  He’s BIG TIME!

  11. Buehler should be a September call up and given some starts. His minor league career hasn’t been that great regardless of rankings. He isn’t ready. I can see him competing in Spring Training. He’s not as good as Stewart.

    1. Sorry, but you just said Buehler is not as good as Stewart. I have to disagree with you. Beuhler just rose from 77th to 17 the in the prospect rankings. And I think he is a stud, Beuhler is our next great prospect.

    2. Where is Stewart in the Top 100 Prospects?

      Buehler is #17. Stewart must be at least #101 because he’s not in the Top 100.

  12. Mark, I like those 5 gassers. We need 7 in the bull pen. Give me 2 left handed gassers and I am ready to go to war. The starters would have to get to the 5th, innng and turn out the lights the party is over as Don Meredith would sing.

  13. Getting back to talking trades. We are going to get a LHRP and Right handed outfield bat.
    I have reading more about the Stanton situation in Miami and it sure looks like he is going to go to the highest bidder with little in the way of prospects back. The opportunity to lower 2018 payroll while obtaining one of the games biggest sluggers has to have FAZ on the phone. BIG OPPORTUNITY! Sorry AC, don’t agree with your take on prior thread. Gonzalez who hasn’t been part of this year’s juggernaut would be out the door. Utley can mentor both Seager and Bellinger. Gonzales, Kazmir, Forsythe and Ryu with some second tier prospects for Stanton.
    Taylor, 2nd
    Seager, SS
    Turner, 3rd
    Bellinger, 1st
    Stanton, LF
    Grandal, C
    Pederson, CF
    Puig, RF

    1. I do not know why you don’t keep adding to the list. Where’s Trayce Thompson, Brett Eibner, SVS, Rob Segedin?
      So you are going to entice the Marlins and the most prolific RH Power Bat in the NL if not MLB with a broken Adrian Gonzalez ($21.5M), an unable to pitch Scott Kazmir ($16M), a 2B they do not need ($9M or $1M buyout), and a pitcher who knows what you get ($7M)?
      I can’t understand why this deal has not been done.
      The Marlins are not going to take on Gonzalez’ and Kazmir’s contract. They would be better off without them. The Marlins are probably going to go the fire sale route so why would they want to take on a guaranteed $47M for 2018. Stanton’s 2018-2019 contract totals $51M.
      The Marlins are looking for long term solutions. Logan Forsythe is not a long term solution. He will be bought out at $1M making him a FA in 2018. With Dietrich and Riddle they have no real need to pay Forsythe $9M next year. It is also possible that Dee Gordon and Martin Prado will still be there. Maybe not likely, but possible.
      What possible reason would Miami want a pitcher with a questionable shoulder for 1 year at $7M.
      No real incentive for Miami when they can probably trade Stanton to the Phillies or Braves (who both want him). The Phillies have 7 of the top 100 prospects, and the Braves have 9 of the top 75 prospects, including 6 pitchers. The Marlins will want prospects to build up their pitiful farm system, not what you are proposing. You would have a better chance of offering Gavin Lux and Jordan Sheffield and assume all of his salary if you want Stanton that bad.
      Then of course there is the Dodger incentive. A guaranteed $295M over the next 11 years or until he is 38. From age 31 to 38 the guarantee is $218M with a potential to $233M. You are the one who continually points out how much the ownership wants out of the luxury tax. What do you propose for Kershaw after 2018? When Seager becomes a FA you would have the Dodgers paying Stanton $32M, and another $32M when Bellinger hits FA? Then there is the next four to five years after that averaging around $30M. What about the other 21 or so players on the roster.
      Another issue is Stanton has a full no-trade. Since he is from the San Fernando Valley, I would assume that he would waive it for the Dodgers, but he will never waive it to leave the Dodgers once he gets home.
      Finally, in order to get value, Stanton has to play. This is his 8th year in the League. If he continues his pace this year (and it is an if), this will be his third year playing more than 125 games per season. You are going to commit nearly $300M for a player that has averages 118 games for the years 2010-2016? For a player that has never hit more than 37 HRs a year (maybe he gets 40 this year), or 105 RBIs? His career batting slash line is .267/.357/.542/.899. Not bad numbers, but worth $300M? I think FAZ passes on this one.

      1. As always, a solid response, but, the reason I keep adding to the list is because there is a potential “clearance sale” going on in Miami.
        The industry talk is, “a deal of Stanton’s magnitude does not excite any of the three investment groups looking to buy the team”. Loria wants to sell and as Mark pointed out “the new owners want Loria to dump salary BEFORE the sale”. I am just pointing out this is a POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITY.
        Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller: “Giancarlo Stanton isn’t likely to move until the Marlins accept that they won’t get someone to take his salary and give prospects back. The industry feeling is that it’d have to be almost a straight salary dump. (Stanton can also veto any deal via his no-trade clause.)”
        You say the Marlins “can probably trade Stanton to the Phillies or Braves (who both want him)”. Of course they want him, everybody wants him, AT THE RIGHT PRICE. You mentioned Stanton is from the Valley and Stanton might waive his no trade clause to go to the Dodgers. Would he waive it for the Phillies or Braves? You mentioned the HUGE Stanton salary. Who can better afford that salary Phillies, Braves or Dodgers? I just think Dodgers may be potentially in the drivers seat!!
        Rosenthal reports that if the Marlins could pay Stanton’s contract down to $20 million per year (it’s at $25 million right now), then many more teams would be able to get a deal done.
        There is potentially blood in the water here. If a deal is structured where the buy down in Stanton’s contract is front loaded into 2018, it gives the Dodgers a big financial advantage by helping to get them out of luxury tax. The players I listed represent the buy down in Stanton’s contract, not players I think the Marlins want. They come off Dodgers 2018 payroll, Stanton goes on. Depending how much salary Miami eats will determine the GOOD prospect cost to the Dodgers.
        The “no trade clause” is a problem going forward. I wouldn’t want to see Dodgers having Stanton on a no trade for the next ten years. Maybe Stanton needs to give up the no trade clause as part of a deal. As a former Valley boy myself, I would gladly give it up to help facilitate a deal to come home.
        Bottom line, if you are right, and Phillies and Braves are discussing Stanton (and as is reported), I believe FAZ is also. Dodgers have an financial and home court advantage in any potential trade. Is it enough to make them pull the trigger?

      2. Small point but Kazmir’s salary is deferred, 8M last year, this year and for the next 4 years. I don’t think the Dodgers are interested but why not kick the tires and see what could be done? It would be a huge boost to the offense to add a bat like Stanton’s no doubt about it, and it’s not my money.

        1. Yes, Kazmir gets paid over a period of years for his three year (2016-2018) contract. So Dodgers would still have to pay the dollars that relate to the years they had him, but for luxury tax purposes, I believe there is an over $17M 2018 hit, even though the money might actually be paid in another year.

      3. AC

        I agree with you the fact that Stanton has had trouble staying on the field, and the fact that is contract is back loaded, I wouldn’t want to trade for Stanton, in that situation.

  14. Well, I have certainly had no interest in seeing the Dodgers take on Stanton’s contract…
    but Boxout’s proposal would change my mind. I’m guessing that doesn’t work for the Marlins but I can 2nd Box’s trade proposal.

    1. The Marlins new owners want them to dump salary BEFORE the sale.

      I think Puig is part of the deal and maybe a couple of other Cubans.

      Gonzo and Kaz could help offset it.

      1. I would tend to think that if anything close to Box’s proposed trade came to pass it would have to also include Puig at the very least.

        1. Except we need to ADD an outfielder, not just swap one. Maybe Verdugo replaces Puig.
          The reports are, teams are talking to Marlins and squeezing them on Stanton. FAZ has to be among them.

    2. It would be a tough pill to swallow for Miami, but it appears that is the situation in Miami, if they want to sell the team. Remember, this is the team and owner that “sold” Miggy Cabrera to Detroit. If Miami is truly going to sell Stanton, Dodgers can afford to pay the most, of any team, if it reduces 2018 payroll and gets them out of luxury tax. Seems like just the kind of deal where FAZ can flex their financial muscle once the payroll situation is under control.
      From Miami’s point of view, we have MULTIPLE good second tier prospects and can afford to thin our farm enough to make it palatable to Miami.

  15. I am totally against the eye candy called Stanton. Yes, I know he is a home grown product, but his personality doesn’t fit this current grinder Dodger team. Like I said in the last thread, the Dodgers don’t have THE MAN, and THE MAN 2, and that is what makes them dangerous in the play-offs. There are so many guys who can do damage in the current lineup, either through platoons or matchups that it will be really tough for an opposing pitching staff to game plan. I will take a bunch of scrappers anyday over a few all or nothing long ball hitters. In the euphoria of the current season, let’s not forget the heartbreak of the Cardinals, Mets, and the damn Giants over the last 5 years, Love them or hate them, which I will never forgive the Cards for cracking Hanleys ribs, they were way more man than we were, just gritty ass teams that wouldn’t die until you put a wooden stake through their hearts. WE are that team now, let’s not jack up the chemistry with THE MAN. We can do this with our current guys, just a few improvements around the edges, which is how FAZ usually rolls.

  16. I hope we don’t trade Beuhler. I saw him when he pitched for Vanderbilt. He rose from 77th to 17th, why? Because he’s a beast on the mound. Cant wait to see him pitch at Dodger Stadium.

  17. I don’t trade Buehler or Verdugo.

    While the Stanton Deal is fun to talk about, the reality is that it’s not very likely. Reason? Look at Carl Crawfish and A-Gon after 32. Stanton is likely of the same ilk….

    1. This is truly the million or should I say the multi million dollar question. Would he be worth his contract? It sure is an ugly contract for the Marlins (especially with the no trade clause). I hate old guys (Crawford, Ethier, Gonzalez) on big contracts more than most. My loyalty is to the Dodgers, when a player starts sucking, I like to say thank you for the good times and good luck in the future, with another team.
      But MLB front offices all have some kind of a comfort level when they take on these kind of contracts. I am sure it’s some kind of a financial risk/reward analysis. Dodgers don’t NEED Stanton (they have options) and so far in the FAZ regime, It doesn’t look like they like being handcuffed by HUGE contracts, but Marlins/Loria are between a rock and a hard spot and it looks like a NBA style salary dump situation. It’s a “potential” opportunity, with Dodgers, perhaps having a competitive advantage. I think we see Stanton traded before the deadline, will it be to the Dodgers??

      1. Boxout

        I know Stanton can hit the ball far, but for as strong as he is, he hasn’t been able to stay on the field.

        And remember the front office wants to find the young player, before he is the guy.

        1. You are right MJ. Stanton has been hurt some in the past, took a pitch to the face one time. Lost a lot of games to that one. But yes, FAZ would need to analyze how he would age and consider his future injury risk.
          And yes, FAZ (and everyone else) wants to find the young player, before he is the guy. But, I have always felt FAZ knows where they are at, that they aren’t the small town yokels some have accused them of being. They are going to consider EVERYTHING, including big ticket Machado and Harper. Will these type of situations make sense, especially with the strength of our farm system, I don’t know.
          All I am saying is, Stanton’s unique situation right now might be an opportunity. It’s a buyers market for one of the biggest sluggers in MLB. It looks like he will be traded, Miami is going to take a hit, will it be a big enough hit to get FAZ to bite?

  18. Dino and Roger, I agree with you. I do not want Stanton. He does not fit. Mark, I agree with you. Do not trade Beuhler or Verdugo. Now Calhoun, they can trade. Our first priority is a LHRP. We have everything else covered. These Dodgers are grinders and we are strong 1-8 in the line up. Evermore will want Beuhler or Verdugo in a trade. FAZ, do not do it.

  19. The talk about Stanton is fun but not realistic in my opinion. Even if we were to offer Puig would Mattingly want him? Will Mattingly be there after the ownership change? Personally, I’d rather have Ozuna. It think more realistic options would be Martinez who is a free agent after the season giving FAZ the option to resign him or let him walk, McCutchen who has 14.7M option for next year with a 1M buyout and Avisail Garcia. Garcia is slashing 310/353/497 (850 OPS) and 400/416/573 (989 OPS) against lefties. He’s arb eligible for the first time after the season and we would control him through 2020. These are the type of hitters I think FAZ will look at as they aren’t overly expensive, gives them options to retain them or we have several years of control. Like AC said, I think Watson will be a target as much as Wilson will be. I could see AJ Ramos as being an alternative to Britton. Doesn’t throw as hard but would be cheaper.

  20. Amen to the amens. A lot of it comes from “its not my money”??
    Patience is the key… BP n no mas!
    I stuck my neck out projecting Seager n Cody to my friends and I will go out on that limb again…Don’t even think of trading Beuhler!!

    1. It’s not my money, or yours either Peterj. I see Boxouts point but don’t think the Dodgers want to go down that road of taking on big contracts especially long term ones. IMO Beuler is as close to untouchable as anyone the Dodgers have. Of course they will be linked to all the big names just because they are a big market team. They should check on everyone if only to drive the price up. I agree help the bullpen is the only real need and the current bats they have are mainly on the upswing. Theo made a splash and overpaid because they have to do something where they are in the standings. The Dodgers are not in that position of needing to make a splash.

  21. You know with all this success in the last couple years and the real possibility of going to the WS in 2018, it’s a little sad that Vin retired. Oh well, Maybe just Maybe…
    I miss going to a lot of games at the Ravine. The sandwich at Phillipes before, parking at the train station and jumping on a bus full of Blue fans and hell the parking was free.
    There’s a silver lining to all this, I found Rancho Cucamunga!, we all know that AA is where they make it or look into insurance or plumbing. Then there’s this kid who rolls into town and the buzz starts. Sweet..
    Those with a chance, grab minor lg. game. You might get hooked.
    Sorry for rambling.. It beats trading away some of my favs.

    1. I don’t get tired of reading your stuff Pete – it’s beautifully written.
      Keep it coming.

  22. A look at the payroll tax penalty:
    2017 threshold: $195 million
    2018: $197 million
    2019: $206 million
    These are the penalties:
    • First time over: 20 percent tax on the overage
    • Second consecutive time: 30 percent
    • Third consecutive time: 50 percent
    There are also surtaxes:
    • Between $20 million and $40 million over the threshold: 12 percent
    • $40 million over: 42.5 percent
    • Second consecutive time $40 million over: 45 percent
    Th 42.5 percent tax rate, for example, is only on the dollars spent beyond the $40 million already above the threshold. So if the threshold is $195 million and a team spends $236 million, a potential 92.5 percent tax rate is applied only to the $1 million over $235 million, not the entire $41 million over the threshold.
    Los Angeles Dodgers
    2014/2017: $257.2 million payroll ($195 million threshold)
    Payroll: $62.2 million over threshold
    Tax: 20 percent for first time over ($12.4 million)
    Surtax: 42.5 percent on $22.2 million ($9.4 million)
    Total tax: $21.8 million
    2015/2018: $291.1 payroll ($197 million threshold)
    Payroll: $94.1 million over threshold
    Tax: 30 percent for second time over ($28.2 million)
    Surtax: 45 percent on $54.1 million ($24.3 million)
    Total tax: $52.5 million
    2016/2019: $275 million estimated payroll ($206 million threshold)
    Payroll: $69 million over threshold
    Tax: 50 percent for third time over ($34.5 million)
    Surtax: 45 percent on $29 million ($13.1 million)
    Total tax: $47.6 million
    Draft Pick Compensation: The changes are numerous and complex but address everything from the Qualifying Offer system to those that break the Luxury Tax.
    Clubs may not tender a Qualifying Offer to a player who has previously received a Qualifying Offer.
    The time period during which a player can accept a Qualifying Offer will be extended from 7 to 10 days.
    Clubs signing a Free Agent subject to compensation will no longer forfeit a first round selection, but will be subject to the following:
    A non-market disqualified Revenue Sharing Payee Club shall forfeit its third highest remaining selection in the next Rule 4 Draft.
    A Luxury Tax offender shall forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest remaining selections in the next Rule 4 Draft and shall have its International Signing Bonus Pool (described below) reduced by $1,000,000 in the next full Signing Period.
    All other Clubs shall forfeit their second-highest remaining selection in the next Rule 4 Draft and shall have their International Signing Bonus Pool reduced by $500,000 in the next full Signing Bonus Period.
    All forfeited International Signing Bonus Pool monies will be distributed equally among all other Clubs. Competitive Balance Selections will be exempt from forfeiture.
    A Former Club of a Free Agent subject to draft pick compensation will receive the following:
    A non-market disqualified Revenue Sharing Payee Club shall receive a selection immediately following the first round of the draft if the player signs a contract with a total guarantee of $50 million or more.
    Clubs that break the Luxury Tax threshold shall receive a draft selection immediately following the fourth round of the next Rule 4 Draft.
    All other former clubs shall receive a selection immediately following the Competitive Balance Round B of the next Rule 4 Draft (which follows the second round).

  23. Taking a look at BA’s Top 100, I noticed that neither JDL or Grant Holmes are listed any longer. In addition, SFG #1 pitching prospect, Tyler Beede has also dropped out. Beede was included as one of the fastest dropping players in 2017. He is still young enough to turn it around, but it is still good to see the continuation of the SFG slide at both the ML level and MiLB level.

  24. The 2018 payroll tax threshold is $197.
    2017 Dodger payroll includes 38 total players and $241,149,167 total salary.
    The 2018 payroll will not include Ethier at $17.5M, Crawford at $21.8M, Guerro at $7.5M for a total of $46M.
    McCarthy $11.5M, Gonzales $22.4M, Puig $9.2M, Kazmir $17.7M, Ryu $7.8M, Maeda $3.1M
    Those players total $71.7M
    2017 salary of Stanton $25M; Ozuna $3.5M but Ozuna is Arb eligible so that will jump to my wild guess of $12M. Together, Stanton and Ozuna payroll for 2018 might be $37M
    $241M less $71M plus $37M = $307M which would extend the Dodger consecutive year over the max non-penalty payroll level.
    Myself, I would only trade for Stanton if Ozuna came in the package but I can’t see the Dodgers making such a trade without getting under $197M payroll in 2018.

  25. Re Stanton: no

    He is a player I’d love to see on the Dodgers if only so we don’t have to face him. I get nervous every time he and Dbacks Goldsmith come to the plate.

    That being said, his contract length is a deal breaker. In the current era of no sterods/peds players age faster. Their performance degrades and they dont bounce back from injuries.

    The new contract paradigm may need to front load contracts. Over pay yearly from 25-31 but avoid much money beyond–money you can afford to loose when you DFA a player when you need the roster spot.

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