If you are a contrarian in the investment community, you likely have a very good track record of making money because it has been proven over and over again, that running with the herd is a recipe for failure. A contrarian often looks like an idiot most of the time until they clean up the mess that the herd made with their ill-advised buying. In short, a contrarian wants to buy when everyone else wants to sell, and sell when everyone wants to buy (i.e., see Graham and Dodd’s Security Analysis).
What I have found is that what is often obvious to me is not obvious to others. I’m a contrarian in business, investing, life, sports and with the Dodgers. While it is not always true, I believe that if everyone is doing something… or thinking something… it’s probably wrong! I also must confess that I have not mastered the contrarian mindset. For example, a few weeks ago, I (like lots of other Dodger fans) called for Chase Utley to be DFA’ed. I wasn’t alone. A lot of other morons said the same thing. Yeah, I admit, I was a moron!
I have been saying that Rich Hill would come around, but many Dodgers fans wanted him gone, executed and dismembered. Wrong again! While he is not back 100%, he sure looked better in his last start and in another start or two, he will be there. WRITE THAT DOWN! Rich Hill will be a very important component in the Dodger’s quest for a World Championship.
When Guggenheim and Company hired Andrew Friedman, I sensed they had hired a kindred spirit. It was obvious to me, that he was a contrarian. He was going to buy low and sell high, and he was not going to make dope-fiend moves. When others were selling , he was buying and vice-versa. He took risks on injury-prone pitchers and stacked them deep while buying them cheap. I saw and understood his plan and was immediately branded as an idiot (by people who now have shown themselves to be the real idiots).
See, contrarians have to endure the insults and ridicule of people who are not adept at perceiving the obvious immediately. The lemmings just kept running off the cliff, bad-mouthing FAZ as they plummeted to their destruction. Ideas that are not conventional or out of the norm are ridiculed by the lemmings who follow the same plan over-and-over … the cliff! Look, I am not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but I picked up on this one right away!
Some fans even made it personal in their attacks against my ideology. Dodger Therapy was venerated as gospel and I was the anti-Christ. All I can say is “Where is the moron who wrote Dodger Therapy now?” I’ll tell you where: He’s in a strait-jacket, mumbling unintelligible ramblings about FAZ. What a dumbass!
Andrew Friedman’s version of the Dodgers have won the division every year since he has been in charge, went further in the playoffs every year, are in prime position to win it all this year and have one of the finest and deepest farm systems in baseball. I took so much flack the past two years in my support of FAZ that I had to leave another blog and keep the morons out of this one. Here’s the good side: if you can post here, I deem you to be “not a moron!”
In fact, I have surrounded myself in this blog with people who are smarter than me. That’s really not much of an accomplishment because 98.9% of the population are smarter than me. So there is that! The moral of this story is not to run with the lemmings. Conventional wisdom is usually wrong. Be calm, be collected, be real. Don’t panic over dumb stuff!
Lots of fans castigate FAZ for not signing pitchers that pitch deeper into games. Well, the Cubs, Giants and Mets had pitchers who pitched deep into games last year. Is that a recipe for success or failure the next year? You may not like it, but the times, they are a changing! Why? Lots of reasons, but they are! Get over it and get on with life. This is the way it is.
Sooner or later the FAZ-A-Phobes will have to give up the fight, but it might be a while since they are intellectually challenged. Someone asked how much longer we will have to watch Hatcher? The answer is “At Least One More Time.”
Rants & Raves
- Ryu is stuck – Maybe he should get traded to the Orioles who need starters. He might be their #3.
- Justin Verlander a Dodger? Surely you jest! Not a chance! No more bad contracts!
- “FAZ mismanaged Julio Urias and has no plan.” That’s silly! They don’t have a plan because they don’t know how his health is. Duuuuuhhhh! They are supposed to know more today. To blame this on FAZ is really… well the only word I can think of is dumb! Holding him back and not letting him pitch everyday causes a sore arm? Really dumb! Do better than that! You can disagree with how he has been held back, but the fact of the matter is: They want him to be ready at the end of the year. How else you do that is subjective. I happen to agree with it, but it’s an opinion.
- I hear A-Gon may be back Mid-July… or not!
- Ethier? Allegedly September. That means “We have no clue.”
Minor League Hot Sheet
- OKC played 2 and won 2.
- Verdugo was 2-6 and Calhoun was 2-4 with his 15th HR. Farmer was 3-5 with his 6th HR and is hitting .360. Thompson was 2-5 (.217) and hit his 7th HR
- Rios hit his 15th at Tulsa and sopko went 5 strong innings allowing just 1 run.
- Raley, Peters and Estevez all had two hits at RC. Peters, Diaz and Estevez homered.