200 Inning Pitchers are Becoming Extinct!

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1. Hey Mark, so glad to see LA Dodger Talk back! I had grown weary of the constant bickering that seemed always be so negative at the other site. I love the rules you laid down and the focus seems to be back on simply talking Dodger baseball!

   1. Thanks Mike,

      I remember you – you used to be M-Rod or something like that. You have some great comments. Don’t be a stranger. This is a new beginning! I know some of the old buch don’t like the new rules, but I’m burning that bridge. After being gone from there a while, I did not realize how toxic and myopic it often was. I have turned the page and it’s time for this to be fun again… even if no one ever reads it – I’m happy. The thing is, I have had over 400 readers sign up the first two weeks. I think a lot of people are tired of the crap too.

      

2. I know that prevailing wisdom is that pitchers lose effectiveness after the 2nd time through the lineup. I doubt that this was always true or that it would necessarily be true if pitchers were trained the way that they were trained in prior eras. It certainly doesn’t have to be true – I would rather have Clayton Kershaw on the mound in the 7th most games than almost any other pitcher.
   –
   I am attaching a link to a cool article about Koufax and Drysdale:
   http://baseballpastandpresent.com/2011/10/16/dynamic-duo-1959-1966-don-drysdale-sandy-koufax-pitched-dodgers-baseballs-summit/
   –
   I remember reading an article years ago debating the relative merits of a 4 vs. 5 man rotation. Your 5th starter isn’t as good as the 1st 4 , so by giving that guy the ball every 5 days you deprive your other starters the opportunity to pitch. Koufax would average 41 starts – today Kershaw gets 33. Your 5th starter gets the ball 8 times instead of Kershaw. What kind of sense does that make? The same math holds true for starters 2, 3 & 4.
   –
   If there is a significant drop off in effectiveness if a pitcher pitches every 4 days or a significant increase in injury risk, then I would understand, but I don’t believe this to be the case.
   –
   I have the same issue with the 5 – 6 inning starter. While some pitchers would never be effective after the 5th or 6th, I suspect that the way that pitchers are trained, along with injury concerns from front offices, influences the late game effectiveness of many pitchers. Baseball is hardly a new game and there is enough history. Bill James noted the following in an article about 3 man rotations:
   ” That’s not a fantastic number, is it, 245 innings? 116 pitchers pitched 245 or more innings in a season in the 1950s, 189 in the 1960s, and 275 in the 1970s. This went down to 134 (pitchers pitching 245 innings) in the 1980s, 46 in the 1990s, and 14 in the first decade of this century.

   The thing is, though, that this decrease in pitchers pitching 245 or more innings has not been accompanied by any obvious decrease in starting pitcher injuries.

   Study here. . .this is a new study; I have done ones like it before. Not only has this decrease in innings pitched by starting pitchers not led to an obvious improvement in pitchers’ health, but the number of pitchers who are able to stay in rotation from season to season has actually decreased measurably. ”
   –
   I don’t like – 7 – 8 man bullpens
   5 inning starters
   5th starters
   too many platoons
   too much defensive shifting
   the DH
   artificial turf
   interleague play
   –
   i don’t think that the game has been improved by any of the above

   1. I think the cutoff is the 3rd time through the order.

      Interesting you think its training, the writings I’ve read seem to center on pitch recognition. “Obviously, that third time is a bit different because they’ve seen a lot more pitches. They make adjustments,” Baltimore right-hander Yovani Gallardo said. “Any time you see a hitter making an adjustment, you have to make an adjustment as well and try to interrupt that timing that they have. They’ve seen a lot of pitches throughout the game, so you want to mix certain things up.”

      Also interesting that you frame this as a modern observation. I couldn’t find any stats one way or the other, the only thing I found was anecdotal when Brad Ausmus weighed in on this, “I think the numbers show that the more times a hitter sees a pitcher, the more success that hitter is going to have. I don’t think it’s a secret. Before the numbers showed it, we knew that was the case. The balance is allowing the starters to go deep enough to not overuse your bullpen.”

      I’d love to see how the TTOP holds up in a historical context. Maybe the play index could do that.

      1. It’s just that baseball is an old game. If Walter Johnson wasn’t as good in the 7th, wouldn’t someone have noticed? The article on Koufax and Drysdale – there didn’t seem to be a big drop off the 3rd or 4th time through the order.
         –
         If hitters make adjustments, why can’t pitchers? Or if the stuff is good enough, why can’t a pitcher keep working it? I’m sure you’ve seen games where a pitcher works his stuff differently as the game goes by – more fastballs early maybe, more breaking stuff late; or more coming inside early. The pitcher should still have the advantage as he knows what’s coming and the hitter really doesn’t. And if the more the hitter sees a pitcher the better he does, how explain the continued success of pitchers who face the same teams (say in their own division) season after season?
         –
         I think that it has to do with training because pitchers either lose location or velocity as the game goes on but this wasn’t always so and isn’t so with some pitchers now. Steve Carlton, for example pitched over 300 innings in 1980 at age 36 He pitched his 1st full season in 1967 so he had been in the league for 14 seasons and 1980 was his 10th season of 250 IP or more. He would go on to pitch over 280 innings 2 of the next 3 seasons (age39). There are lots of other pitchers who accomplished similar feats. Certainly Carlton was exceptionally good, but he was a training fanatic too. Warren Spahn won 23 games at age 42 and pitched 259 innings. Again Spahn is of course exceptional but the point is that he pitched over 250 innings 16 times.
         _
         How did the likes of Koufax, Carlton or Spahn amass so many IP if the hitter figured them out after 6 or they lost their stuff after 6?
         –
         I think that Bobbie has hit on it at least in part – the 5 man rotation of 5 inning pitchers is easier to install than a 4 man rotation of 7 inning pitchers. And you can put your failed starters in the ‘pen and let them go an inning. But I also think that economics have something to do with it. If a starter costs $10 – 30 MM per season, owners protect their investments to try to avoid injury (although as Bill James pointed out, pitchers are more likely injured now then they were 30 years ago.)

         1. Well,
            —
            The players were smaller, slower and less prepared back then. Much better now and with much more data to help them perform better.
            —
            Many of them had jobs in the off-season, smoked and drank hard.
            —
            Where did you see that there didn’t seem to be a drop-off with Koufax and Drysdale? And how in the world do you presume that pitchers aren’t making adjustments, that’s just silly and inane.

            1. Well, Mr. “Silly and inane”, obviously the smaller, slower and less prepared Warren Spahn was able to throw 259 innings at age 42. How did he do it if he couldn’t get through the order more than twice?
               _
               The point that you made is that hitters make adjustments which is why a pitcher can’t get him out the 3rd time through the order – my point is that pitchers adjust too and a pitcher should be able to keep the hitter off balance as a result. And that baseball is a game that has been played for over 150 years and that the apparent inability of starters to get past the 5th is a new thing. Surely, if pitchers couldn’t pitch effectively past 5 innings 30, 40 or 50 years ago someone would have noticed by now. Bill James’ article (quoted above) makes it clear that the way that pitchers are being used is markedly different now than in the past. It can’t merely be that the front offices and stat keepers know more than before.

            2. Hey Rick,

               I guess you are using Spahn and Walter Johnson.

               If those are your points of context then I would reply and say Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw? For them, maybe we can ignore the TTOP.

               For everyone else, then and now, I think it’s a viable effect that “training” will not overcome.

               Oddly, this topic comes up on the Jonah Keri podcast with Dave Roberts. Roberts acknowledges that it’s real and viable and that he and Honeycutt play attention to it.

   2. Dodgerrick, I do not disagree with how you feel about the changes. I too miss the 4 man rotation, and consistent lineups. But IMO the biggest change resulting in all the other changes is the money. The players are no longer just players, but now are investments. Whether the father of FA was Curt Flood or Andy Messersmith, neither anticipated pitchers getting $200M plus guaranteed contracts. In addition, expansion spread out the talent pool. The talent didn’t go away or lessen, it just went to more teams, thus requiring teams to sign pitchers that would not have been considered MLB worthy before. So with FA and expansion, baseball became more of a business than a game.

      To protect their investments, ownership wanted those arms protected. So the experiment for the 5 man rotation was started. It caught on, and is now the current standard. Only us baby-boomers remember 4 man rotations and 300IP/300K pitchers.

      With the increase in costs, came the necessity to win to be able to attract and sign/retain stars so that stadiums were filled and TVs turned on. The first big change was the designated hitter (I too hate this). More offense, more behinds in the seats. While the players of the 60’s used amphetamines to be able to play 162 games, steroids became the rage in the late 80’s and 90’s and ownership turned their heads. I know for a fact that FO’s knew the players who were juiced and asked them to introduce others to their suppliers. Plausible deniability. This is why Bud Selig does not belong in the HOF. Do you think baseball was upset with McGwire and Sammy Sosa? Or Barry Bonds? I know those were rhetorical.

      Now thoughts are turning to possibly 6 man rotations; SP only going 5-6 IP; 8 man bullpens; platoons and emphais on ability to play more positions; shifts…Metrics show that those changes will increase the chances of winning, or they would not be used. I am not an advocate of the changes, but I do recognize that they are here, and that The Dodgers need to have the tools to give them the best chance to win. Purists may not like it, but the team is built to win in this new baseball world. How else can you explain LAD winning 91 games withou a recognized #2, and their Ace going down for two months? FAZ built the 40 man roster, and put LA within 2 of the WS…with the best pitcher on the planet giing in game 6…and Rich Hill in game 7…and against RHP. Everything was set up. The players failed to execute. Times do change, and those that do not change with them get left behind. This FO recognizes it and hopefully this is the year the players bring the Trophy home.

      1. AMEN!

3. I don’t think it has anything to do with analytics. It has to do with what is EASIEST. Is it easier to draft, develop, maintain a pitcher who can go through the lineup 3-4 times or to find 5 guys who can throw 95 mph who each go an inning. It also happens to be the CHEAPIST. For a pitcher to go through a lineup 3 times, he has to be able to pace himself and to be able to change his original game plan in how he attacks certain hitters. If the young pitchers were EXPECTED to go deep, some would actually be able to do so. Active bullpens are here to stay, unfortunately, because of my basic premise that it is easier to find guys who CAN do it—-since most are failed starters. Makes for an ugly game. From the seventh inning on, most games are unwatchable. And that is when most are decided. Too bad. It’s like dumbing down in most of the areas of our lives. Just give into it. But, it is still baseball. Still the best game. I can’t wait for the football season to be over with today.

4. Maybe people have crappy diets and their bodies break down quicker.

   Maybe vaccinations have weakened the ligaments and tendons.

   Maybe antibiotics have weakened the immune systems of athletes.

   There might be a modicum of truth in it all, including taking the EASIEST path!

   1. Don’t you think that physical conditioning is better now? That diets are better now? That vaccinations have been used for over 50 years?

      I don’t buy it.

      1. Yes, conditioning and diets are better now (or can be), and vaccinations have been around. However, what also has changed is that baseball is played at a high level all year round. More and more kids concentrate on one sport to increase their chances for that scholarship. This doesn’t just happen at the high school level. Club/travel teams start at 8 years old, with untrained coaches who only care about winning and building their program (more $$$). They do not care that they pitch a youngster all year round. They do not care that the young pitchers are throwing curves at 10-12 years old. All these youth club/travel coaches care about is winning, and many of the parents only care about that scholarship. They win championships…more come to the program. There are hitting instructors, pitching instructors, fielding instructors all for kids starting under 10 years old. If we actually listen to kinesiologists, we know that there are only so many pitches in that arm with an unnatural throwing motion.

         This isn’t just baseball. I know softball travel coaches who make 6 figures because they can get their 9th graders’ offers from the elite SEC or Pac-12 programs. It isn’t just youth sports either. The NFL ownership did not give a darn about concussions until the lawsuits started. MLB ownership did not give a darn about steroids until they were forced to. Agents didn’t care if their players were juicing because it meant larger contracts. How does Brady Anderson get 50 HR’s without juicing. It paid off for him and for his agent. Whether we like it or not, Sports is BIG business.

5. If I never have to see a pitcher flail at a pitch again I will be happier.
   .
   Would those that want to keep the purity in baseball by making the pitcher hit want to also have football players play both offense and defense?
   .
   If the NL implemented the DH what would you miss most, the double switch? I don’t get excited watching the player that made the last out being switched out so that weaker hitting replacement player can hit in the pitchers spot.
   .
   I would like to see Ethier hit instead of sitting on the bench because the NL doesn’t have the DH.
   .
   There is an irony about wanting to reduce the number of pitches a $200,000,000 pitcher makes to try to help him pitch throughout his contract and paying that player $200,000,000 to sit on the bench 80% of the time.

6. Bums, while I may not like the changes, I do expect and will accept them. Would I prefer that there was no DH, yes. But I do understand why there is one, and I know that I will have to accept the DH in the NL someday. I would not be surprised to see the end of the DH in the NL and expansion of the roster to 26-27 at the next CBA. More specialization, more $$$$. There is no turning back now. Agents are going to push their players to push the union. It is only time. Will that make baseball better? Not IMO.
   .
   I know my fellow trojan alums loved watching Adoree Jackson play defense/offense/special teams. I am sure Michigan fans felt the same way about Jabril Peppers. But the violence of the game dictates that players cannot possibly continue to play both ways all the time.
   .
   How far do you want to take change? Sure I would rather watch Ethier hit more than Maeda. Why stop with just the DH? Why not have teams take a page out of football and have different offensive and defensive units. Wouldn’t you rather watch Manny Ramirez just hit and never play LF? How about Greg Luzinski? I loved watching Zoilo Versalles play SS, but I hated watching him hit. But that is not the game.
   .
   I agree that there is an irony with the reduction of # of pitches as salaries increase. But ownership would rather have their pitchers throw 175-200 quality IP to increase the chances of completing the contract. My guess is that SF is hoping that Cueto gets through this year so he might opt out. He is one pitch away from the Giants having to suck up nearly $100M if he doesn’t make it through the year. Limiting the # of IP also increases the potential of more quality pitches in the September/October run. With Clayton out two months last year, tell me Dodger fans did not think that he still had plenty in the tank for NLCS Game 6.

   1. AlwaysCompete, I too have have thought about having more than one DH but less to watch a Manny hit and more to watch truly outstanding defense. However, I will never really like the guy that only plays DH. Maybe if a player has been a full time player and finishes his career as a DH, I could like him. I started this at half time and I am now totally distracted by Lady Gaga so that’s all for now.

7. For the record:

   I am in favor of a 20 second clock between pitches.
   I am in favor of 2 DH’s whe can each hit 3 times for players who do not have to come out of the game.
   I am in favor of expanding the rosters to 27.
   I am in favor of electronic balls and strikes (sorry Yasmani).
   I am in favor that a pitcher is only allowed to throw to 1B 3 times a batter.
   I am in favor that any pitcher who comes into the game must pitch to 3 hitters.
   I am in favor that the team with the best record gets home field advantage in the World Series – screw the All-Star Game.

   1. Amen, brother! I love baseball, but a few changes like these will increase the pace of play and add excitement/drama.

      Also, no more rain delays or 18 inning games.

   2. Do those DH’a get to use ghost runners too?

      1. ???

         1. The game is fine. There about 10 pitchers in the league who make people cry about pace of game. I’m with you on electronic strike zone though. That and September baseball rules are the two things that would help a lot.

8. This one would be very difficult to manage: 2 DH’s who can each hit 3 times for players who do not have to come out of the game. If that DH were to strike out could he hit for the next batter and thus hit back to back to back?
   .
   Also, if a pitcher can’t throw to first more than three times that really means he can only throw two times because if he throws three times the runner can then lead off half way to second base or more.
   .
   Otherwise a good list to start the conversation for the next contract.

   1. They can hit 3 times a game, but only once an inning.

      20 second pitch clock too.
      Throwing to third base twice means they still have another one, so you only throw the 3rd time if you got him. On the next pitch he’s gone! That would liven up the game.

      I would even consider a DR – Designated Runner.

      1. I like all the changes for the obvious reasons. I also would add to your list the non-pitch intentional walk as this would save time as well. What are the odds of this ever happening though? Just curious.

         1. A lot will happen… in 10 years

9. How about awarding 1st base on an intentional walk without actually throwing the pitches. Saves time & pitches.

   1. Definitely.

   2. Some argue that they make bad throws during that process, but it is so few, I would be fine with it.

10. Well, I was close on the score, but wrong about the winner. What a comeback by the Pats. Brady has to be in the discussion as to who is the best of all time.

11. I don’t like most of your proposed new rules. On the intentional walk thing, does no one here remember Johnny Bench striking out on what was supposed to be an intentional ball in the world series?
    –
    http://herosports.com/news/mens-baseball/mlb-to-change-intentional-walk-rule-so-here-are-the-10-most-incredible-intentional-walk-moments-in-baseball-history

    1. I really doubt Mark is highly in favor of his own proposed new rules. He’s back throwing pasta at the wall with a couple of em. If all those occurred suddenly it’d take a whole new generation to accept what I couldn’t forgive. If it were tried it should be called something different in the same way MMA is called different than boxing. The robo ump calling strikes and balls I’m all in favor of because human error has become too evident too often. If the game in itself were really broken why are we here more often than we eat?

12. Joc 5th best center fielder in MLB according to BR
    .
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2659816-br-mlb-300-ranking-the-top-25-center-fielders-of-2016

13. What about a pitcher going 7 or 8 innings and a relief pitcher comes in gets one out and gets the win.
    That needs to change.

    1. 😉

14. On other fronts, Romo is now a Dodger at $3 MM.

    Freudy strikes again:
    –
    https://dodgertherapy.wordpress.com/2017/01/27/the-slow-boat-is-painted-dodger-blue/
    _
    “I hear a lot of questioning why Andrew Friedman and Farhan Zaidi would deal the same blue chip they planned for “baseball’s best second baseman”, Brian Dozier, in a deal for Logan Forsythe. As I’ve pointed out, the Dodgers had Dee Gordon, then had Howie Kendrick, then had José Peraza, and then Howie again and still found a way to have no second baseman, necessitating moving José De León for one.”

    1. Whether I fully agree or not, he made his case.
       .
       I would like to have Gordon and think the Dodgers could have received a better player(s) in return. Miami wanted Gordon and his speed.

       1. As I see it, FAZ traded Dee Gordon & Jose De Leon for Chris Hatcher, Kike’ Hernandez, Austin Barnes, and Logan Forsythe. As it currently stands, it is an overpay, but not substantially so. Right or wrong, Dodger baseball people were not convinced that Dee Gordon was the special player he showed he could be in 2015. FAZ did not make that determination unilaterally. Baseball people advised them. Was he juiced in 2015? I guess we will never really know. He was more comfortable at home in Miami, and even said that being home helped him to excel, and that he would probably not replicate his season if he stayed in LA. Again, we will never know.
          .
          I know that very few believe it, but humor me. What if 2015 was the outlier for Dee Gordon, and he more resembles his career batting line of .268/.325/.364/.689 for 2017? What if Kike’ Hernandez had so much personal turmoil last year, and everything snowballed downward, but he is able to now put it behind him to duplicate his 2015 season? We know Austin Barnes is the backup, and could be very good. He will be a rookie this year. And what if (Yes a BIG if), Chris Hatcher learns to command the fastball rather than leaving it over the middle of the plate, waist high? He does have a secondary and tertiary pitch (slider and change) which did grade out better in 2016 than his 4 seamer. Many baseball people do believe he has a very live arm, he just has had a problem with commanding it. Maybe he learns to go with the slider more often in 2017. You cannot teach upper 90’s MPH, but you can teach command. I do not know how often Hatcher called Grandal off, but Grandal needs to take control and call the game not allowing him to throw the 4 seamer too much. He was very effective in the 2015 NLDS against the Mets…4 G, 3.2IP, 0 Hits, 5K, 1BB. I have not been a big Hatcher fan, but I sure hope he comes around.
          .
          I do not expect all four of the above scenarios to come to fruition, but if 3 out of the 4 do, the trade value does seem to get close to fair value. The 2017 season will define the results of the Dee Gordon trade. I will wait until the end of the 2017 season to judge it.

15. It seems as though Romo will be wearing Dodger Blue as soon as he passes his physical. I just hope he will be as good as Blanton was last year but wss.

16. 1. I like the fact that Romo was predicted to get a $14 million/2 year deal this offseason but he took a one year three million dollar deal to play for the team he grew up rooting for and to win another championship.

    2. I find it incredible the comparisons DodgerIdiot makes between Friedman and Epstein and even more incredible that anyone even gives it an ounce credibility! His whole argument is so circular that you get dizzy even considering it. Look, there is no argument that Theo is an elite baseball guy, but quit building a strawman to compare him and Friedman. It’s totally asinine! I guess weak-minded people love that stuff. The National Enquirer proves as much!

17. Dee Gordon was traded for Austin Barnes, Chris Hatcher, Andrew Heaney and Kike Hernandez.

    Heaney was then traded for Howie Kendrick.

    Kendrick and Hernandez were a big part of a pennant run with the Dodgers and then Kendrick traded for Darrin Ruf and Darnell Sweeney.

    Just so we are clear: Hernandez and Kendrick played keys roles in two NL West Championships for the Dodgers and now we have the following players left from that trade:

    Ruf
    Sweeney
    Hernandez
    Barnes
    Hatcher

    Who is Dee Gordon? The 2015 or 2016 version? Better yet, who are Ruf, Sweeney, Hernandez, Barnes and Hatcher?

    There is a lot to be decided. Who is Andrew Heaney?

18. HI MARK. ITS GREAT TO HAVE DODGERTALK BACK. THE BEST SITE FOR ALL THINGS DODGERS. I FEEL SO EXCITED THIS YEAR FOR MYBELOVED DODGERS. THANKS FOR ALLOWING ME TO POST MY FRIEND

19. So, I went back and read Dodger Therapy very carefully. His premise is that Friedman and Zaidi are incompetent and he will twist every fact to that end. If they had been picked lower than the Cubs by Fangraphs, he would have touted how big their payroll is and how Theo has done it better and is smarter, yada, yada, yada. I don’t hold Fangraphs in particular high esteem – it’s just another opinion.

    I started to de-bunk what he said, step-by-step, but all has an element of truth built around twisted facts that I would have to spend an hour tearing it up… and he’s not worth that. Truth be told… he’s probably a Giants fan who loves to make Dodger fans miserable.

    There is a lot to be decided – let’s see who the best 2B is: Peraza, Gordon or Forsythe. Let’s see what De Leon becomes. Let’s see what happens to Barnes and Kike this year. Hatcher too.

    Finally, here’s how dumb he is: He insists on comparing Friedman with Epstein when both were given different mandates by ownership. It’s comparing apples to oranges. A valid comparison will occur in a few years.

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