Dodgers Say Bull to Dozier

The Dodgers traded Jose De Leon straight up for Logan Forsythe.  Jose De Leon is one of the top right-handed pitching prospects in all of baseball.  Logan Forsythe is a second baseman who is entering his prime.  Personally, I think Jose De Leon’s future is in the bullpen, but I have been wrong before.  I liked Brian Dozier, but I also like Logan Forsythe a lot.  I just did not think Tampa Bay would give him up in a straight up one-for-one deal.  There is evidently no animosity between TB and Friedman.

Even if JDL is the real deal, the Dodgers will not miss him THIS year and probably NEXT year.  They have plenty of RH starting pitchers in the pipeline and he was the most major league ready… meaning that he was the most tradable.  Consider this:  The Dodgers have Yadier Alvarez, Walker Buehler, Brock Stewart, Jordan Sheffield, Chase De Jong, Trevor Oaks, Josh Sborz, Imani Abdullah, Mitchell White, Dustin May and Jacob Rhame in the pipeline as RH starters.  JDL was easily expendable, just like Montas, Cotton and Holmes also were.

The Dodgers have an abundance of riches and you have to give up value to get value.  I believe Logan Forsythe will be a valuable player for the Dodgers in 2017 and 2018. He is in the mold of Ben Zobrist!  This strengthens the Dodgers in that they now have a “top-of-the-order” leadoff hitter who mashes LH pitchers.  I could see Toles and Forsythe alternating in the leadoff position, and when I compared him to Ben Zobrist, I meant it. Zobrist is slightly faster, but they are players from the same mold.  In fact, at age 29, Logan Forsythe beat Ben Zobrist in just about every metric.  Logan had some injuries in 2016 that limited him, but I think under Turner Ward and on a much better offensive team, he will shine!  I also would not be surprised if FAZ brought back Chase Utley.

I would have rather had Dozier, but not for more than De Leon!  Culberson, Hernandez and Taylor – only one will be on the team now.  What can we expect from Logan Forsythe?  I would say he will look something like this:

  • .270 BA
  • .350 OB%
  • 30 doubles
  • 15 HR

I’ll take it! By the way, his defense is excellent.  He will be a better double play partner than Chase Utley.  This gives Willie Calhoun two year to impress and improve on defense.  I really hope Willie can make it.  I love his attitude and work ethic, but his “tree trunk legs” worry me. Well, that and the iron skillet he has strapped to his left hand.

So, maybe the Dodgers are done.  Second base is solved and I think they have to give Yasiel Puig one final shot. The Dude can be a beast!  We have to give him one final shot.  This is it. If he can realize his potential, this team can be scary.  I hate trading any prospect, but second base was a place of need and the Dodgers also needed someone at that spot who could hit lefthanders.

For his career Logan Forsythe has slashed .278/.343/.818 against LH pitching while only slashing .244/,318/.678 against RH pitching.  Last year, he hit them about the same from each side of the plate.Like all deals, we have to “wait-and-see,” but I like it in principle.  Now, they might even Chase Utley!

Whats’ the picture that is displayed on the site?  Not Logan Forsythe – just another Spring Training picture from my collection.

 

 

 

Posted by Mark Timmons

We started LA Dodger Talk in 2001. This site is about giving another perspective outside of the average day-to-day reporting. We don't do game recaps or such things -- lots of sites do that well. I value sabermetrics, but don't think they are the "end-all-be-all.". This is where you should start your day as a Dodger Fan. Welcome! We'd like to hear your voice.

This article has 41 Comments

  1. I’m sure the pitching staff is happy with an additional quality glove behind them…
    Whats next M.T.?

    1. If I had to guess, I would say that the following are all possible with different degrees of likelihood (some are quite unlikely):

      1. Andre Ethier is traded (8.6% probability)
      2. Adrian Gonzales is traded (2.3% probability)
      3. Ryan Braun is acquired (11.7% probability)
      4. Chase Utley is signed (19.9% probability)
      5. Joe Blanton is re-signed (21.2% probability)
      6. Greg Holland is signed (10.8% probability)
      7. There will be more rumors (100% probability)

      Those numbers were arrived at using highly scientific pull-it-out-of my _________ conclusions.

  2. Mark: “Like all deals, we have to “wait-and-see,” but I like it in principle.”

    Yes we will, but, seems little doubt DeLeon wasn’t going to be traded. If DeLeon becomes Martinez we’re going to hate any deal that got done, including Dozier. JDL was FAZ’s main 2nd base trade chip, looks like they just didn’t think the potential Dozier upgrade was worth the additional prospects. I agree.

  3. This move makes our chances of a WS much stronger in the short term.
    I got the feeling that having seen JDL pitch in the Majors last season, Faz weren’t quite as sold on him as before.

    We have needed a Lead Off man for a while, and we have filled two needs in one go.
    I think they will try and bring back Utley on less money for one year, as much for his influence as anything else.

    I think Puig will have until the Trade Deadline to step up.

  4. I have a sneaking suspicion that we have seen the best of JDL as a starter. I had followed him in the minors and was very impressed with his command and felt his stuff would get better. It didn’t! He is a strike-thrower with a slightly above average fastball, a below average curve, an average slider and a good changeup. I think he will get hit as a starter. If he pitches out of the pen, he can dump the curve and gain a few MPH on his fastball.

    That’s my opinion. I think he regressed last year and the Dodgers really tried to keep him from being exposed. We will know soon enough. He’s certainly a flyball pitcher and the bad part of that is that ground balls can’t be home runs.

    1. I agree with you 100%. IMO JDL is a two pitch starter(pitcher) right now, which will make it really hard to stay in a starting rotation. so I believe he is better suited for the pen. I wish JDL the best of luck. As far as Forsythe, I like this trade. I believe he is a solid all around player, not only on the field, but a clubhouse leader as well, those are the type of players that you want around the young kids on this team.Anybody that has played baseball at any level knows the importance of having players like him on any team. As far as JDL turning into PEDRO, I get it , but the way I see it ,I think LAD traded from a position of strength. I we look at it the other way around were always going to feel cheated out of any trade LAD makes. LAD is a better team with Forsythe! Anyway Just my opinion.
      Great day guys!!!
      In the good and in the bad its LAD for life!!!!

  5. Glad that is over with.

    Still a crowd in the outfield.

    If all healthy, a big crowd in the rotation.

    Late in Spring Training we could see more trades based on health and performance.

  6. What if Cody Bellinger is absolutely on fire in Spring Training and they send him to OKC where he continues to tear it up? Would they pay 1/2 A-Gon’s salary to move him for a low level prospect?
    There are a lot of things that could happen…

    1. I keep him in 2017 if that is all we get. He would be a huge insurance policy at first and great left-handed pinch hitter. Besides we might need Bellinger as a platoon guy in right/left field if Puig and others don’t come through.

      I definitely eat salary and move him/Kazmir/McCarthy in 2018 to get below the luxury tax threshold. In 2017 the long drought ends and we win the World Series!!!

        1. “Patience young grasshopper…”

          “Never forget that, at the most, the teacher can give you fifteen percent of the art. The rest you have to get for yourself through practice and hard work. I can show you the path but I can not walk it for you.”

          ― Master Tan Soh Tin

  7. As I indicated in the last thread, I am fairly comfortable with this trade. I still believe it is value for value. The Dodgers received a needed 2B, and traded away a potential top of the rotation prospect. I like JDL, but I suspect that Logan Forsythe will help the Dodgers more in 2017 than JDL would have. Kazmir & McCarthy are unknowns right now, but Stewart/Stripling/Wood can assume the #5 if neither Kazmir of McCarthy cannot. I know that I am viewed as overly optimistic, but I do believe that at least one of the two will come through to be an effective #5. I think LAD FO believes that both Buehler and Alveraz will at least be comparable to De Leon beginning in 2018, making De Leon available.

    I know some want to say that JDL may have arm problems, but I do not go there. I think he will become a top of the rotation SP with Tampa Bay. I am sure many of us think back to the Pedro for DeShields and look at the similarities; needed 2B for a potential SP. DeShields did not work out, and it is possible that Forsythe will crash & burn as well. I seriously doubt it., but it could happen. I hope JDL has a great career and gets into the HOF. But it was not going to happen in LA. As long as Kershaw/Hill/Maeda/Urias are in the rotation, the best he was going to be in the next few years would be as a #5, and there are a surplus that could assume that role. There are zero true 2B candidates that can potentially make a difference. If Calhoun does not show enough to be a ML 2B, the Dodgers will have to wait for Estevez or Lux to be potential roster additions (2020). If Calhoun does prove to be a worthy 2B, he will not be blocked.

    If you take a deeper look into his splits, some skeptics might view it a little more favorable.
    WRISP 97 PA .284/.381/.506/.888
    2 Out WRISP 57 PA .319/.439/.553/.992
    Late & Close 85 PA .329/.424/.562/.985

    He hits RHP as well as LHP. He sprays the ball to all fields. He may not be Joe Panik in the field, but he is a plus defender. He handles most chances, but has a more limited range. If you listen to his teammates, he is a strong positive influence in the dugout. Overall he is a far better choice than Kike’ or Taylor. Thus LAD’s chances are better with Forsythe than without him. You have to give to get.

  8. From the other sites, it looks as though the history of the suits with Forsythe was a big deal. A character guy; clubhouse guy; great teammate. Roberts coached him at Padres. Sounds good. Still, how much better than Kendrick? Cheaper, yes. But better, not sure. Strange deal with Kendrick so early in the trading season. That really put the team in a box that cost it a good pitching prospect. Not too smart, unless Kendrick REALLY had to go for some reason we are not aware of.

    1. Howie will be 34 this year and just had the worst year of his career. His defensive metrics have dropped. Philly said they do not consider him a 2B. I think there are 10 million reasons whey they let him go for almost nothing, but the biggest part is his conditioning and decline. They wanted to DUMP HOWIE and they jumped at the chance. Logan is almost 4 years younger. There may be other issues as well.

  9. With the Forsythe acquisition the Dodgers don’t have any weaknesses. Hitting, fielding, starting pitching, and relief pitching are all strong.

    There is excellent versatility and depth.

    The minors are stocked with major league talent.

    I’m open to trading Gonzalez and Puig. Better to trade early than late. Bellinger should be ready June-ish. I can live with Van Slyke until then.

  10. I think Logan is a better over all hitter, then Dozier.

    Because he hits to all fields, unlike Dozier, who is a right handed pull hitter.

    Is everyone putting him in the lead off position, because he was the Ray’s lead off hitter, or because of his OBA?

  11. Buster Olney on Espn Insider wrote a very telling article today. He starts out by saying this:
    Since Andrew Friedman took over the Los Angeles Dodgers’ baseball operations, he has fended off repeated trade requests for Corey Seager, Julio Urias, Cody Bellinger and Yadier Alvarez. L.A. probably could’ve landed Cole Hamels, Chris Sale or other established stars, but the Dodgers have kept the best of their prospects. And they enjoyed the first extraordinary benefit of that approach last season.

    Seager was an MVP candidate in his first full season, and Urias demonstrated a steely, determined approach to pitching. Evaluators rave about Bellinger, who more than held his own in Double-A and Triple-A last season and is likely the heir apparent to Adrian Gonzalez, and Alvarez, a 20-year-old who allowed one homer in 59 1/3 innings in the minors last season, while striking out 81.

    Then he gets to Jose De Leon:

    But officials and scouts with other teams are not as glowing in their assessment of Jose De Leon, the Dodgers prospect who was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays for second baseman Logan Forsythe on Monday night to plug L.A.’s hole at second base.

    De Leon will be 25 in August, the age at which the perception of prospects can begin to turn, and the Dodgers’ handling of him last season raised questions in the eyes of some rivals. L.A. scrambled for starting pitching in 2016, with 15 different players taking turns in the rotation. De Leon — who had reached the top of the Dodgers’ farm system, at the end of his theoretical development — got just four starts, all in September. And he did not get good results in those, mustering 17 innings and a 6.35 ERA. He might have been in line for promotion earlier in the year if not for a shoulder issue, a red flag in itself to some teams.
    But Friedman’s careful history of deal-making also fueled some of the questions about De Leon. This is not a bad thing, by the way; rather, it’s an acknowledgment of a team’s ability to correctly identify the best of its own players. Washington Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo has an exceptional record for making trades, so even when the Adam Eaton deal was scrutinized at the winter meetings, some of his peers noted that Rizzo simply does not make bad trades (and that the Nationals’ internal assessment of Lucas Giolito obviously deviated from the high rankings he received in published prospect reports).

    As the Dodgers showed they were willing to talk about De Leon for Brian Dozier and ultimately for Forsythe, some of Friedman’s peers have asked: Why? Dating back to his days with the Rays, Friedman is regarded by his peers as being as disciplined a trader as there is in the game.

    He goes on:

    Before the Forsythe deal, one executive who has talked trades with Friedman regarding a number of players noted, “Andrew is only going to trade [prospects] he wants to trade. He’s always going to keep the players he wants to keep.”

    If this was a game of Texas hold ’em, the read on the Dodgers would be that they don’t take chances on trash cards, and they bet only on strong hands (while being much more willing to take risks in international signings).

    The Rays parted with a really good player to get De Leon, and in time, they’ll know whether this was a case of the Dodgers parting with a prospect at exactly the right moment. Tampa Bay had two more years of control with Forsythe, including a team option for 2018, and it swapped that for six years of De Leon.

    After the trade, one rival evaluator offered this on De Leon: “We really like him. [And also Forsythe.] … With the firepower the Dodgers have in their farm system, it’s a good deal for them but also one that provides good value for the Rays.”

    The Dodgers have aimed to create more balance with their batting order after struggling terribly against lefties last season, and Forsythe should help them do that.

    Then he talks about how the lineup might look:

    L.A. often alters its lineup day to day, but with Forsythe in the mix, here’s what it could look like on some days.

    Versus lefties, such as Madison Bumgarner:

    1. RF Yasiel Puig (bats right)

    2. 2B Logan Forsythe (right)

    3. SS Corey Seager (left)

    4. 3B Justin Turner (right)

    5. 1B Adrian Gonzalez (left)

    6. LF Scott Van Slyke (right)

    7. C Yasmani Grandal (switch-hitter)

    8. CF Joc Pederson (left)

    Versus right-handers, such as Johnny Cueto:

    1. LF Andrew Toles (left)

    2. 2B Forsythe (right)

    3. SS Seager (left)

    4. 3B Turner (right)

    5. 1B Gonzalez (left)

    6. C Grandal (switch-hitter)

    7. RF Andre Ethier (left)

    8. CF Pederson (left)
    Andrew Friedman is a very bright guy and one of the main reasons I had to leave another board was the illogical and irrational lunacy regarding him. That’s my final word on the subject.

  12. Now let me break that down:
    Before Andrew Friedman makes a deal, he has calculated what he is willing to pay and he sticks to the deal. They didn’t get Braun last year probably because he knew what he was willing to pay and Milwaukee wanted more. My guess is that he looked at Montas, Cotton and Holmes and decided that (a) they might not be as good as some think; and/or (b) they are surplus that we can trade from. The Dodgers have a plethora of RH pitchers and he knew what he was willing to trade and he stuck to it.
    The Reddick and Hill deal was not a resounding success (although we have Hill for 3 more years and it’s doubtful Hill would have signed here on his own). You can dislike the deal, but the methodology is sound. The same is true with the JDL trade. I think it’s more likely I become Pedro than him.

  13. http://www.truebluela.com/2017/1/24/14368776/mitchell-white-2017-dodgers-prospects

    Mitchell White is their #10 Dodger Prospect.

    I have not seen him pitch much yet, but David Hood says this about him:
    A relative unknown as a sophomore-eligible from Santa Clara, second rounder Mitchell White could be the first Dodger pick from the 2016 draft to reach the major leagues. White was a late riser in the draft on the back of an impressive strikeout-heavy season, and he carried his success over to the professional level. Though White will likely develop as a starter, he could reach the big leagues this season as a reliever and his upside in that role could be elite.
    White may have some of the most electric stuff in the organization. His fastball reportedly touches the mid 90s, but what we can see on tape is a heavy pitch that comes in on a tough plane from his high three-quarters slot. He has excellent control of the pitch and will pound the zone with the offering.

    White is another reason they traded De Leon.

  14. From what I know (and I haven’t seen DeLeon pitch myself), this would seem to be a case of trading from a surplus of right-handed starters to obtain a player in a position of need (2B). I am OK with that. And I suspect that what others have said may be true, ie., that DeLeon is not thought to be a sure thing at the major league level by Dodger talent evaluators. I have read that he is essentially a 2-pitch pitcher (fastball/changeup), but note that Tim Lincecum won 2 Cys that way. So – I am in favor of the deal.

    But – why trade Howie Kendrick for essentially nothing (Darren Ruf – really!) if the Dodgers have essentially obtained his analog in Forsyth? This does raise some questions.

    And going back further, why trade Dee Gordon for was ended up being Kendrick (for 1 year), plus Kike, Barnes and Hatcher?

    Again, I am in favor of this deal, standing alone, but wonder about how we got here.

    1. Howie was a salary dump as I mentioned above. I don’t think anyone considers him a 2B anymore. His conditioning was suspect and his age was another issue.

      I was surprised at JDL’s lack of velocity last year. His fastball was 89-91. Lincecum’s was about 6-7 MPH faster.

      FAZ values high character guys. You wonder if they knew something about Dee? Kike and Hatcher have been little help. 2017 is Barnes time to shine…

    2. Rick -!as always you have put very eloquently what was on my mind.
      Forsythe is Kendrick of 2 years ago.
      A solid, stand up, 2B. We gave up a lot to get him. We re signed him along with Utley, and then moved him to LF.
      We then dumped him (for Ruf) only to trade one of our best pitching prospects for a Howie Doppelgänger.
      Question is, what did Howie do to upset Faz between re signing & a couple of months into last season?

      Like you Rick, I’m ok with the deal but it does seem like a strange way to get there.

    3. One thing that you have to factor is the ages. I am not an advocate of trading our minor league players
      as they are hard to replace especially given our place in the draft. I also recall when Pedro Martinez
      played for the Dodgers as a reliever. However we traded him when he was 21 and had no idea other
      than his big brother was really good. Don’t get me wrong, he was good. In this case, JDL is almost 25 and
      still a triple A player. Plenty of time for the experts to determine the +’s or – ‘s. I was a lot more concerned
      with the FO trading multiple high end young players for two years of anyone. One for one makes sense to
      me. You need a Pitcher and I need a second baseman….fair enough

  15. On Mitchell White: I live down the road from SCU, am an alumnus, and go to a game now and then. I never even heard of Mitchell White until he was drafted. Nothing. Zero. Zilch. If he turns out to be any good, it would be the greatest long shot since…………..He apparently struck out some guys late in the season. They pitched him almost exclusively 2 innings at a time last year. He hasn’t proven yet he can get through a batting order even once, so I wouldn’t bet the bank on this guy. He is a $900,000 crap shoot.

    1. Lots of people say he could be a stud in the pen like RIGHT NOW.

      He has actually pitched more than two innings at time:

      Against Portland, White struck out 15 in a one-hit shutout, with 74 of his 100 pitches going for strikes. While BYU put up six runs against him in his season finale, White hit 97 mph and hit 96 10 times according to BYU’s radar gun. He finished the season 3-6, 3.72 with 118 strikeouts and just 27 walks in 92 innings, averaging 11.54 strikeouts per nine innings, 11th in Division I.
      Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/white-sows-whirlwind-ks/#49eT05gURW7DU26G.99

    2. You know, I used to live up there and Santa Clara had a player that nobody heard of.
      He ended up being drafted by the Lakers. Kurt Rambis. I don’t mean anything, just popped into my head

  16. On Howie and Dee and Others:

    I think FAZ expected the 2015 version of Kike but after last year they did not know what to think. He was the 2B to be and then last year happened. I believe he will be our RH utilityman this year. Remember that he is still young.

      1. Hopefully, Kike can go back to being a super-utility guy who backs up 7 positions and gives JOC a rest 6 or 7 times a year.

  17. Last year, there were times that the Dodgers went with a 4 man bench but mostly it was 5. There is speculation that they will re-sign Chase Utley but assuming they don’t and that they don’t trade any OF, I see:
    Barnes – C, 2B, 3B
    Toles – OF
    Kike Hernandez – CF, 2B, 3B, SS
    Van Slyke – OF, 1B
    Taylor or Culberson – UT

    This assumes a starting OF of Puig, Pederson and Ethier.

    Toles and Thompson still have options – one won’t make opening day roster. One of Taylor and Culberson won’t either. Ruf is out unless he’s so good and Van Slyke is so bad that Ruf forces their hand. (Ruf is a big slow slogger and a bad defender – Van Slyke is a better defender at 1B and OF.)

      1. I assume that Toles sticks over Thompson. he’s a better hitter and a better defender. They also have 2 RH hitting OF on the bench already (Van Slyke and Kike) so Toles would be the only lefty OF on the bench (and in fact the only lefty on the bench).

    1. Barnes could push Taylor/Culberson off the 25 with his ability to play 3rd and 2b and put Thompson on it. Kike’s best position is short stop (which says a lot about his defense elsewhere) so he could fill in for Seager in a pinch.

  18. I am shocked and humbled, but in the 8 days since I started the blog back up, there have been over 200 people sign up. .. and the pace is picking up every day. I appreciate it very much and look forward to giving you a voice too.

  19. I think that we are all tired of Badger’s narcissism, and MJ’s than and then… and the political B.S.
    If you don’t agree you are a red ant on a black anthill (Racist)
    a relief to be here

    1. Welcome Melton, I am glad you are here.

      I am not going to talk about anyone from the past. I will just say that when the pain of staying the same becomes greater than the pain of change – you change!

      I made the change and I will not tolerate politics, disrespect and passive-aggressive behavior.

      We can have spirited discussions and we can disagree without being disagreeable. Amen!

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